World Cup 2018 predictions by Goldman Sachs turned
out to be spectacularly wrong:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-07-14/world-cup-goldman-sachs-gs-model-got-it-all-wrong
Leonid Bershidsky notes:
“Goldman Sachs’
statistical model for the World Cup sounded impressive: The investment bank
mined data about the teams and individual players, used artificial intelligence
to predict the factors that might affect game scores and simulated 1 million
possible evolutions of the tournament. The model was updated as the games
unfolded, and it was wrong again and again. It certainly didn't predict the
final opposing France and Croatia on Sunday….
The moral of the
story is probably that buzz-generating technologies such as big data and AI
don’t necessarily make statistical forecasting more accurate”.