RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE:
An 1100 BCE to 800 CE record of estimated
lead emissions based on continuous, subannually resolved, and precisely dated
measurements of lead pollution in deep Greenland ice and atmospheric modeling
shows that European emissions closely varied with historical events, including
imperial expansion, wars, and major plagues. Emissions rose coeval with
Phoenician expansion and accelerated during expanded Carthaginian and Roman
lead–silver mining primarily in the Iberian Peninsula. Emissions fluctuated
synchronously with wars and political instability, particularly during the
Roman Republic, reaching a sustained maximum during the Roman Empire before
plunging in the second century coincident with the Antonine plague, and
remaining low for >500 years. Bullion in silver coinage declined in
parallel, reflecting the importance of lead–silver mining in ancient economies.
Related:
Status threat, not economic hardship,
explains the 2016 presidential vote by Diana C. Mutz
RESEARCH SIGNIFICANCE:
Support for Donald
J. Trump in the 2016 election was widely attributed to citizens who were “left
behind” economically. These claims were based on the strong cross-sectional
relationship between Trump support and lacking a college education. Using a
representative panel from 2012 to 2016, I find that change in financial
wellbeing had little impact on candidate preference. Instead, changing
preferences were related to changes in the party’s positions on issues related
to American global dominance and the rise of a majority–minority America:
issues that threaten white Americans’ sense of dominant group status. Results
highlight the importance of looking beyond theories emphasizing changes in
issue salience to better understand the meaning of election outcomes when
public preferences and candidates’ positions are changing.