Synchronized Global
Economic Recovery
Peter Goodman notes:
“In general terms,
improvement owes less to some newfound wellspring of wealth than the simple
fact that many of the destructive forces that felled growth have finally
exhausted their potency.”
Obstfeld notes:
“The primary sources of GDP acceleration so far have been in Europe and Asia, with improved performance also in the United States, Canada, and some large emerging markets, notably Brazil and Russia, both of which shrank in 2016, and Turkey. Much of this momentum will carry through into the near term. The recent U.S. tax legislation will contribute noticeably to U.S. growth over the next few years, largely because of the temporary exceptional investment incentives that it offers. This short-term growth boost will have positive, albeit short-lived, output spillovers for U.S. trade partners, but will also likely widen the U.S. current account deficit, strengthen the dollar, and affect international investment flows.”
IMF Chief economist Maurice Obstfeld on the near-term
outlook for the global economy:
https://blogs.imf.org/2018/01/22/the-current-economic-sweet-spot-is-not-the-new-normal/Obstfeld notes:
“The primary sources of GDP acceleration so far have been in Europe and Asia, with improved performance also in the United States, Canada, and some large emerging markets, notably Brazil and Russia, both of which shrank in 2016, and Turkey. Much of this momentum will carry through into the near term. The recent U.S. tax legislation will contribute noticeably to U.S. growth over the next few years, largely because of the temporary exceptional investment incentives that it offers. This short-term growth boost will have positive, albeit short-lived, output spillovers for U.S. trade partners, but will also likely widen the U.S. current account deficit, strengthen the dollar, and affect international investment flows.”
Justin Fox - It's Still a Slow-Growth U.S.
Economy
Fox notes:
“Short-term boosts to economic growth can also be
driven by governments, households or businesses spending borrowed money. But
that doesn't always end well. It certainly didn't after the mid-2000s housing
bubble. In fact, given the slow growth of the working-age population, it might
be wiser just to accept that 2.5 percent annual GDP growth eight years into a
recovery isn't such a terrible thing.”