An interesting Bloomberg piece correctly notes:
““The policies of
the Trump administration are likely to lead to a strong dollar and a widening
U.S. current account deficit,” Stein notes in a report last week.
“Some—exporters to the U.S. (Canada, the Eurozone, China, Korea), oil and
commodity exporters—will benefit to a greater or lesser degree.”
Stein draws this
perspective from what’s known as sectoral financial balances. Put simply,
national current accounts reflect the interaction between savings and
investment; the amount saved in an economy equals the amount invested, as a
matter of accounting. If corporate America invests, for example, and neither
the household nor the public sectors increase their savings by a corresponding
level, the current account balance must, by definition, fall into negative
territory, mirroring a rise in net inflows of savings from abroad.”
Updates:
Risk of a Global Trade War in 2017 - Yale economist Stephen Roach offers a warning:
Paul Krugman on the Risks of a Trade War
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/12/26/opinion/and-the-trade-war-came.html