The Thucydides
Trap: Are the U.S. and China Headed for War? By GRAHAM ALLISON
“The defining
question about global order for this generation is whether China and the United
States can escape Thucydides’s Trap. The Greek historian’s metaphor reminds us
of the attendant dangers when a rising power rivals a ruling power—as Athens
challenged Sparta in ancient Greece, or as Germany did Britain a century ago.
Most such contests have ended badly, often for both nations, a team of mine at
the Harvard Belfer Center for Science and International Affairs has concluded
after analyzing the historical record. In 12 of 16 cases over the past 500
years, the result was war. When the parties avoided war, it required huge,
painful adjustments in attitudes and actions on the part not just of the
challenger but also the challenged.”