Attention Economy


Sunday, October 30, 2016

Rethinking Political Risk

American and global investors need to seriously consider uncertainty involving American politics. If you had radical populists/corrupt politicians running for office in some other country, we would be far more concerned about potential market turbulence. Apparently, investors are finally waking up to the danger. According to the WSJ:
“Wall Street’s bet against fear, a big winner this year, is starting to wane.
The relative calm in the U.S. stock market has made wagering on a decline in the CBOE Volatility Index, or VIX, a popular trade for much of this year. The two biggest exchange-traded funds that short volatility, as betting on a decline in the VIX is known among traders, are up 46% this year. Hedge-fund bets that the VIX will decline reached a record in September, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.”

MIT economist Simon Johnson on the consequences of a US electoral surprise in November:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-consequences-of-trump-victory-by-simon-johnson-2016-10

Related:
Why Financial Markets and Global Corporations Need to Rethink Political Risk
http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2016/09/why-financial-markets-and-global.html