Attention Economy


Sunday, July 31, 2016

Epidemics and Pandemics in the 21st Century

Sonia Shah notes:
“Commerce has long provided unexpected opportunities for infectious pathogens to exploit, from the Erie Canal, which slashed the cost of shipping while unwittingly carrying cholera across the country, to the hydropower dams that electrified the South while simultaneously providing succor for scores of malarial mosquitoes. Today, abandoned properties and deteriorating infrastructure, brought on by housing crises and climate change, similarly threaten us with epidemics of mosquito-borne pathogens such as Zika.”

Saturday, July 30, 2016

For the Intelligent Reader: Rousseau and Modern Socio-Economic Dilemmas

“Down with Élites!” (HOW ROUSSEAU PREDICTED TRUMP: The Enlightenment philosopher’s attack on cosmopolitan élites now seems prophetic) by Pankaj Mishra (New Yorker magazine piece)
Mishra notes:
“Exhorting the pursuit of luxury together with the freedom of speech, Voltaire and the others had articulated and embodied a mode of life in which individual freedom was achieved through increased wealth and intellectual sophistication. Against this moral and intellectual revolution, which came after centuries of submission before throne and altar, Rousseau launched a counterrevolution. The word “finance,” he said, is “a slave’s word,” and the secret workings of financial systems are a “means of making pilferers and traitors, and of putting freedom and the public good upon the auction block.”.…
Rousseau did share a crucial assumption with his adversaries: that the age of clerical tyranny and divinely sanctioned monarchy was being replaced by an era of escalating egalitarianism. But he warned that the bourgeois values of wealth, vanity, and ostentation would impede rather than advance the growth of equality, morality, dignity, freedom, and compassion. He believed that a society based on envy and the power of money, though it might promise progress, would actually impose psychologically debilitating change on its citizens.”

Generational Divide and US Politics

Generational divide and political polarization:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/america-isolated-young-voters/493253/

Globalization Reader: Politics and Globalization

The Economist notes –
“ Trade creates many losers, and rapid immigration can disrupt communities. But the best way to address these problems is not to throw up barriers. It is to devise bold policies that preserve the benefits of openness while alleviating its side-effects. Let goods and investment flow freely, but strengthen the social safety-net to offer support and new opportunities for those whose jobs are destroyed. To manage immigration flows better, invest in public infrastructure, ensure that immigrants work and allow for rules that limit surges of people (just as global trade rules allow countries to limit surges in imports). But don’t equate managing globalisation with abandoning it.”

GLOBALISATION AND POLITICS: DRAWBRIDGES UP
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21702748-new-divide-rich-countries-not-between-left-and-right-between-open-and

The Bell of Globalization Cannot be Un-rung by Phillip Lohaus (research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute)
“Whatever “globalization” is — the term is employed so loosely that it has lost nearly all meaning — it is not the real cause of America’s populist anger; it’s a scapegoat. It is true that trade creates “winners” and “losers,” but on the whole, free trade has been a net positive for the United States.”

Brexit Won’t Stop Globalization [Bloomberg Businessweek cover story by Michael Schuman]
“The rich West launched globalization on the ideal that nations tied together by bonds of trade, money, and culture are less likely to destroy one another. Now those in the U.S. and Europe who believe themselves hurt by the massive changes wrought by globalization want to reverse it. Isolationism is being heralded as independence.
But anyone who thinks globalization is dead misreads what’s really happening. While there are pockets of resistance, much of the world is still forging tighter links between countries, companies, and communities. Rather than retrenching, globalization is deepening and expanding—whether angry Trump supporters or British Leave voters like it or not.”
Related: http://www.dw.com/en/brexit-the-end-of-globalization/a-19369680

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A list of interesting and highly informative readings on international trade:
Articles –
You and Donald Trump Might Not Like Free Trade, but It’s Been Good to You Both by Daniel Ikenson

Beyond the American Manufacturing Competitiveness Act: Congress Should Get More Serious about Tariff Reform by Daniel Ikenson

Five Big Truths about Trade by Alan Blinder

Frédéric Bastiat’s classic from 1845 –

Books for the general reader –
Free Trade under Fire (4th Edition) by Douglas A. Irwin
Mad About Trade: Why Main Street America should Embrace Globalization by Daniel T. Griswold
The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy (2nd edition) by Pietra Rivoli
The Choice: A Fable of Free Trade and Protection (3rd Edition) by Russell Roberts
Pop Internationalism by Paul Krugman
Protectionism (Ohlin Lectures) by Jagdish N. Bhagwati
The Wind of the Hundred Days: How Washington Mismanaged Globalization by Jagdish N. Bhagwati
A Stream of Windows: Unsettling Reflections on Trade, Immigration, and Democracy by Jagdish N. Bhagwati

Friday, July 29, 2016

Student Debt Bubble and the US Financial Sector

The US student debt bubble is a study in financial dysfunction by Rana Foroohar (FT Op-ed):
Foroohar notes:
“In many ways, the student debt crisis chimes with Mr Sanders’ other bugbear: the subprime crisis of 2008. Many of the same factors are in play: a cost bubble (the price of college has increased by over 1100 per cent in the past three decades); vulnerable borrowers paying above-market rates (student loan prices, fixed by the government, have not fallen despite near zero real interest rates); corruption (scandals involving Pell Grants, subsidies for low-income students, have been rife); conflicts of interest between educators and regulators (which are predictably understaffed and underfunded); and a victim-blaming mentality when it all goes wrong.”

Tuesday, July 26, 2016

Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Markets

Russia’s orthodox economic approach has helped it avoid economic disaster:
“Moscow made the tough decision to stop draining its foreign exchange reserves to defend the rouble and allowed the currency to fall sharply. That led to a rise in inflation, which is never popular with the masses, but in retrospect this was a smart call.”

Egypt is still struggling to stabilize its currency:
“The Egyptian pound fell Monday to its lowest-ever valuation on the unofficial black market amid increasing bets that a weaker economy will force Cairo to devalue its local currency again.”

Dollar Shave Club and the Modern Economy

An interesting piece:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/27/business/dealbook/1-billion-for-dollar-shave-club-why-every-company-should-worry.html

Is the Permanent Income Hypothesis Still Relevant?

Milton Friedman's famous hypothesis may become less relevant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-26/economists-give-up-on-milton-friedman-s-biggest-idea

Monday, July 25, 2016

Facts, Feelings and American Politics

Danger Posed by Unrealistic Expectations

Wise words from Robert Samuelson:
“We can’t repeal the economy’s periodic instability, though we may (perhaps) mitigate it; we can’t isolate ourselves from the rest of the world without being exposed to collateral damage; and we can’t borrow ourselves to prosperity.
As long as we cling to these unrealistic ideas — as long as they are benchmarks for our success or failure — the more we condemn ourselves to the revenge of false expectations.”

Saturday, July 23, 2016

Pecuniary Rewards versus Job Satisfaction

The Incalculable Value of Finding a Job You Love by ROBERT H. FRANK
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/24/upshot/first-rule-of-the-job-hunt-find-something-you-love-to-do.html

Google’s Big Bet on AI

Google appears to be placing a huge bet on artificial intelligence:
http://forbesindia.com/article/big-bet/sundar-pichai-to-reinvent-google-with-a-heavy-dose-of-artificial-intelligence/43791/0

Political Economy of India

Two important new books on Modern India:

A book about PV Narasimha Rao – the Prime Minister who initiated India’s economic liberalization program in 1991:
Half - Lion: How P.V Narasimha Rao Transformed India by Vinay Sitapati

A book about the current Prime Minister of India - Narendra Modi:
Modi and His Challenges by Rajiv Kumar
http://www.voxeu.org/article/modi-and-his-challenges

Thursday, July 21, 2016

Brexit and Britain – The Real Story

Brexit Blues - John Lancaster’s brilliant piece in the London Review of Books is worth a close read:
“Kipling asked a good question: ‘What do they know of England who only England know?’ But there’s a variation which, today, might be more relevant: ‘What do they know of the UK who only London know?’ The answer to both questions turns out to be the same: ‘Not nearly enough.’ England is so small, geographically, that it is easy to forget that it is also surprisingly big. There is no rich country of equivalent size that is more densely populated. The only country which has both more people than England and more people per square kilometre is Bangladesh. What this means, experientially, is that there is a kind of denseness to England and to Englishness; England is both very similar to itself and significantly different when you move ten miles down the road.”

Magical Geniuses and Mathematics

Insights from the mathematical genius Srinivasa Ramanujan
“The mathematician Mark Kac divided all geniuses into two types: “ordinary” geniuses, who make you feel that you could have done what they did if you were say, a hundred times smarter, and “magical geniuses,” the working of whose minds is, for all intents and purposes, incomprehensible. There is no doubt that Srinivas Ramanujan was a magical genius, one of the greatest of all time. Just looking at any of his almost 4,000 original results can inspire a feeling of bewilderment and awe even in professional mathematicians: What kind of mind can dream up exotic gems like these?”

Emory University mathematician Ken Ono:
“Ramanujan’s work came through flights of fancy. If he had been asked to explain why he did his work, he would probably say that he recorded formulas that he found beautiful, and they were beautiful because they revealed some unexpected phenomenon. And they’re important to us today because these special phenomena that Ramanujan identified, over and over again, have ended up becoming prototypes for big mathematical theories in the 20th and 21st centuries.”

The Great Math Mystery – PBS Nova

American Politics and Foreign Policy

Washington Post editorial on Trump’s Foreign Policy
UPDATES:

America – The Next Banana Republic?
“The Republican Party has given itself up to a single family and its business interests. Its convention has become a prime-time platform for the enhancement of that family’s fame and fortune. Whatever happens to the party, the country and the world, the Trump brand will come out of this election with even greater global celebrity, and thus with many more possibilities to affix its name to condos, golf clubs, suits and phony self-improvement courses. In fact, win or lose, one consequence of this election could be that, finally, Donald Trump will be worth what he claims.”


Roger Ailes – Rise and Fall of Fox News Creator
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/21/roger-ailes-leaves-fox-news-sexual-harassment-claims

New Housing Construction in Expensive Cities

Delays in new housing construction in expensive cities

Wednesday, July 20, 2016

Promising Voice Technology

Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currencies?

WSJ piece – The Central Bankers’ Bold New Idea: Print Bitcoins

India’s Struggle to Create a Genuine National Market

DW piece – India's long struggle to create a common market
“Nearly seven decades after India's independence, the country has yet to become a single market for goods and services. Trade between states is subject to tariffs, and both the federal as well as state governments levy a myriad of taxes discouraging production and inter-state commerce.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has been attempting to change this with a big-ticket reform aimed at modernizing the nation's arcane tax code. If Modi succeeds, it would be mark a major achievement of his premiership and contribute to his core electoral promise of reinvigorating the economy.”

The Market for Calculators – A Strange Case of Monopoly Power

An interesting Washington Post piece notes –
“In the ruthlessly competitive world of technology, where companies rush the latest gadget to market and slash prices to stay competitive, the TI-84 Plus is an anomaly.
Texas Instruments released the graphing calculator in 2004, and continues to sell it today. The base model still has 480 kilobytes of ROM and 24 kilobytes of RAM. Its black-and-white screen remains 96×64 pixels. For 10 years its MSRP has been $150, but depending on the retailer, today it generally sells for between $90 and $120. The only changes have come in software updates…
Electronics almost universally become cheaper over time. But with essentially a monopoly on graphing calculator usage in classrooms, Texas Instruments can charge a premium. Texas Instruments accounted for 93 percent of the U.S. graphing calculator sales from July 2013-June 2014.”

Tuesday, July 19, 2016

Unraveling of Turkey

From NYT - Turkey’s Latest Target in Mass Purge: Educators
“The crackdown after Friday’s failed coup attempt continued, as more than 15,000 employees of the education ministry were suspended, 1,500 university deans were ordered to resign and 21,000 teachers lost their licenses.”

Turkey was already undergoing a slow-motion coup

NATO Weapons Stored in Turkey – Potential Risks
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-h-bombs-in-turkey

 UPDATES - 
The Economist on the Turkish Coup Attempt and its Aftermath
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21702509-recep-tayyip-erdogan-drifts-away-america-nato-and-eu-running-out-friends

From Der Spiegel: Erdogan's Putsch: Turkey's Post-Coup Slide into Dictatorship
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/coup-in-turkey-leads-to-erdogan-power-grab-a-1104261.html

Resource Economics (and Politics)

Economics of Renewable Energy
An interesting NYT piece –
How Renewable Energy Is Blowing Climate Change Efforts Off Course

Water Shortages in the Middle East – A Geo-Political Concern
Brahma Chellaney notes –
“There is no shortage of challenges facing the Arab world. Given that many Arab states are modern constructs invented by departing colonial powers, and therefore lack cohesive historical identities, their state structures often lack strong foundations. Add to that external and internal pressures – including from surging Islamism, civil wars, and mass migration from conflict zones – and the future of several Arab countries appears uncertain.
What few seem to recognize is how water scarcity contributes to this cycle of violence. One key trigger of the Arab Spring uprisings – rising food prices – was directly connected to the region’s worsening water crisis. Water also fuels tensions between countries. Saudi Arabia and Jordan, for example, are engaged in a silent race to pump the al-Disi aquifer, which they share.”

Household Saving, Financial Inclusion and Economic Development

Emerging Markets
RBI governor Rajan on financial inclusion and economic development:

USA
Low household saving and the elderly in America
Economist Tyler Cowen notes:
“Often it’s argued that Americans are too strained by circumstance to save much more, but the evidence belies that view. China is much poorer, yet its citizenry often manages a household savings rate of 30 percent. And in the 1970s, a much poorer America had a savings rate that once reached 15 percent and hovered above 8 percent as recently as the early 1990s. Since then the American savings rate has fallen and has settled in the range of about 4 to 6 percent.”

Friday, July 15, 2016

Efficacy of Employee Non-Compete Clauses

Inflation, Asset Prices and Real Returns [Updated]

Update - Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller - Why Land and Homes Actually Tend to Be Disappointing Investments
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/17/upshot/why-land-may-not-be-the-smartest-place-to-put-your-nest-egg.html

Are Bonds Still a Good Investment?
WSJ Jason Zweig notes:
“With bonds producing near-record-low levels of income worldwide, there’s never been a worse time to invest in government and corporate debt. You earn next to nothing now and, if interest rates finally rise, you will get clobbered later.
That’s the conventional wisdom, and it’s wrong.
With 10-year U.S. Treasury securities yielding just under 1.6%, a $10,000 investment produces a paltry $158 in annual interest income. But, properly measured, the returns on bonds are higher than they have often been in the past. And, for many bond investors, rising rates will turn out to be a blessing, not a curse. Finally, even if yields go lower from here, bonds will still provide valuable insurance against losses in the rest of your portfolio.”

US, Japan and Dental Treatment Costs

NYTIMES piece notes:
“Nobody looks forward to having a cavity drilled and filled by a dentist. Now there’s an alternative: an antimicrobial liquid that can be brushed on cavities to stop tooth decay — painlessly.
The liquid is called silver diamine fluoride, or S.D.F. It’s been used for decades in Japan, but it’s been available in the United States, under the brand name Advantage Arrest, for just about a year.”


Obvious question – If the Japanese have been using the simple treatment for decades, why did it take so long for American dentists to adopt the practice?

Tuesday, July 12, 2016

Pokémon Go – An Example of Herd-Like Behavior

Nintendo benefits from Pokémon Go craze:
“The game is perhaps the first real success story of the use of augmented reality technology, which blends the digital and real world together. The combined effect is part bird-watching, part geocaching, part trophy-hunting, with a heavy dose of mid-1990s nostalgia.”