Sonia Shah notes:
“Commerce has long
provided unexpected opportunities for infectious pathogens to exploit, from the
Erie Canal, which slashed the cost of shipping while unwittingly carrying
cholera across the country, to the hydropower dams that electrified the South
while simultaneously providing succor for scores of malarial mosquitoes. Today,
abandoned properties and deteriorating infrastructure, brought on by housing
crises and climate change, similarly threaten us with epidemics of
mosquito-borne pathogens such as Zika.”
Attention Economy
Sunday, July 31, 2016
Saturday, July 30, 2016
For the Intelligent Reader: Rousseau and Modern Socio-Economic Dilemmas
“Down with Élites!” (HOW ROUSSEAU PREDICTED TRUMP: The
Enlightenment philosopher’s attack on cosmopolitan élites now seems prophetic) by Pankaj Mishra (New Yorker magazine piece)
Mishra notes:
“Exhorting the
pursuit of luxury together with the freedom of speech, Voltaire and the others
had articulated and embodied a mode of life in which individual freedom was
achieved through increased wealth and intellectual sophistication. Against this
moral and intellectual revolution, which came after centuries of submission
before throne and altar, Rousseau launched a counterrevolution. The word
“finance,” he said, is “a slave’s word,” and the secret workings of financial
systems are a “means of making pilferers and traitors, and of putting freedom
and the public good upon the auction block.”.…
Rousseau did share
a crucial assumption with his adversaries: that the age of clerical tyranny and
divinely sanctioned monarchy was being replaced by an era of escalating
egalitarianism. But he warned that the bourgeois values of wealth, vanity, and
ostentation would impede rather than advance the growth of equality, morality,
dignity, freedom, and compassion. He believed that a society based on envy and
the power of money, though it might promise progress, would actually impose
psychologically debilitating change on its citizens.”
Generational Divide and US Politics
Generational divide and political polarization:
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/america-isolated-young-voters/493253/
http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2016/07/america-isolated-young-voters/493253/
Globalization Reader: Politics and Globalization
The Economist
notes –
“ Trade creates many
losers, and rapid immigration can disrupt communities. But the best way to
address these problems is not to throw up barriers. It is to devise bold
policies that preserve the benefits of openness while alleviating its
side-effects. Let goods and investment flow freely, but strengthen the social
safety-net to offer support and new opportunities for those whose jobs are destroyed.
To manage immigration flows better, invest in public infrastructure, ensure
that immigrants work and allow for rules that limit surges of people (just as
global trade rules allow countries to limit surges in imports). But don’t
equate managing globalisation with abandoning it.”
GLOBALISATION AND POLITICS: DRAWBRIDGES UP
The Bell of Globalization Cannot be Un-rung by Phillip Lohaus (research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute)
“Whatever
“globalization” is — the term is employed so loosely that it has lost nearly
all meaning — it is not the real cause of America’s populist anger; it’s a
scapegoat. It is true that trade creates “winners” and “losers,” but on the
whole, free trade has been a net positive for the United States.”
Brexit Won’t Stop Globalization [Bloomberg Businessweek cover story by Michael Schuman]
Related: http://www.dw.com/en/brexit-the-end-of-globalization/a-19369680
---
“The rich West launched globalization on the ideal that nations tied together by bonds of trade, money, and culture are less likely to destroy one another. Now those in the U.S. and Europe who believe themselves hurt by the massive changes wrought by globalization want to reverse it. Isolationism is being heralded as independence.
But anyone who thinks globalization is dead misreads what’s really happening. While there are pockets of resistance, much of the world is still forging tighter links between countries, companies, and communities. Rather than retrenching, globalization is deepening and expanding—whether angry Trump supporters or British Leave voters like it or not.”Related: http://www.dw.com/en/brexit-the-end-of-globalization/a-19369680
---
A list of interesting and highly informative readings on international trade:
Articles –
You and Donald Trump Might Not Like Free Trade, but It’s Been Good to You Both by Daniel Ikenson
Beyond the American Manufacturing Competitiveness Act: Congress Should Get More Serious about Tariff Reform by Daniel Ikenson
Five Big Truths about Trade by Alan Blinder
Frédéric Bastiat’s classic from 1845 –
Books for the general reader –
Free Trade under Fire (4th Edition) by Douglas A. Irwin
Mad About Trade: Why Main Street America should Embrace Globalization by Daniel T. Griswold
The Travels of a T-Shirt in the Global Economy (2nd edition) by Pietra Rivoli
The Choice: A Fable of Free Trade and Protection (3rd Edition) by Russell Roberts
Pop Internationalism by Paul Krugman
Protectionism (Ohlin Lectures) by Jagdish N. Bhagwati
The Wind of the Hundred Days: How Washington Mismanaged Globalization by Jagdish N. Bhagwati
A Stream of Windows: Unsettling Reflections on Trade, Immigration, and Democracy by Jagdish N. BhagwatiFriday, July 29, 2016
Student Debt Bubble and the US Financial Sector
The US student
debt bubble is a study in financial dysfunction by Rana Foroohar (FT Op-ed):
Foroohar notes:“In many ways, the student debt crisis chimes with Mr Sanders’ other bugbear: the subprime crisis of 2008. Many of the same factors are in play: a cost bubble (the price of college has increased by over 1100 per cent in the past three decades); vulnerable borrowers paying above-market rates (student loan prices, fixed by the government, have not fallen despite near zero real interest rates); corruption (scandals involving Pell Grants, subsidies for low-income students, have been rife); conflicts of interest between educators and regulators (which are predictably understaffed and underfunded); and a victim-blaming mentality when it all goes wrong.”
Wednesday, July 27, 2016
Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) – Basics
Why Dropping the Trans-Pacific Partnership May Be a Bad Idea by
EDUARDO PORTER
Useful Primer:
Related:
Tuesday, July 26, 2016
Exchange Rate Policies in Emerging Markets
Russia’s orthodox economic approach has helped it avoid
economic disaster:
“Moscow made the
tough decision to stop draining its foreign exchange reserves to defend the
rouble and allowed the currency to fall sharply. That led to a rise in
inflation, which is never popular with the masses, but in retrospect this was a
smart call.”
Egypt is still struggling to stabilize its currency:
“The Egyptian pound
fell Monday to its lowest-ever valuation on the unofficial black market amid
increasing bets that a weaker economy will force Cairo to devalue its local
currency again.”
Is the Permanent Income Hypothesis Still Relevant?
Milton Friedman's famous hypothesis may become less relevant:
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-26/economists-give-up-on-milton-friedman-s-biggest-idea
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-26/economists-give-up-on-milton-friedman-s-biggest-idea
Monday, July 25, 2016
Danger Posed by Unrealistic Expectations
Wise words from Robert Samuelson:
“We can’t repeal
the economy’s periodic instability, though we may (perhaps) mitigate it; we
can’t isolate ourselves from the rest of the world without being exposed to
collateral damage; and we can’t borrow ourselves to prosperity.
As long as we cling to these unrealistic ideas — as long as they are benchmarks for our success or failure — the more we condemn ourselves to the revenge of false expectations.”
As long as we cling to these unrealistic ideas — as long as they are benchmarks for our success or failure — the more we condemn ourselves to the revenge of false expectations.”
Sunday, July 24, 2016
Technological Changes and the Swiss Watch Industry
Recent developments have created the perfect storm for the Swiss watch industry:
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-22/the-swiss-watch-industry-s-perfect-storm
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-22/the-swiss-watch-industry-s-perfect-storm
Saturday, July 23, 2016
Pecuniary Rewards versus Job Satisfaction
The Incalculable Value of Finding a Job You
Love by ROBERT H. FRANK
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/24/upshot/first-rule-of-the-job-hunt-find-something-you-love-to-do.htmlGoogle’s Big Bet on AI
Google appears to be placing a huge bet on artificial
intelligence:
http://forbesindia.com/article/big-bet/sundar-pichai-to-reinvent-google-with-a-heavy-dose-of-artificial-intelligence/43791/0Political Economy of India
Two important new books on Modern India:
A book about PV Narasimha Rao – the Prime Minister who initiated
India’s economic liberalization program in 1991:
Half - Lion: How P.V Narasimha Rao
Transformed India by Vinay Sitapati
A book about the current Prime Minister of India - Narendra
Modi:
Modi and His Challenges by Rajiv
Kumar
http://www.voxeu.org/article/modi-and-his-challengesFriday, July 22, 2016
Why America Needs Jon Stewart
Related:
David Brooks on Trump:
The World Roger Ailes Created by JANE HALL
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/22/opinion/the-world-roger-ailes-created.htmlThursday, July 21, 2016
Brexit and Britain – The Real Story
Brexit Blues - John Lancaster’s
brilliant piece in the London Review of
Books is worth a close read:
“Kipling asked a
good question: ‘What do they know of England who only England know?’ But
there’s a variation which, today, might be more relevant: ‘What do they know of
the UK who only London know?’ The answer to both questions turns out to be the
same: ‘Not nearly enough.’ England is so small, geographically, that it is easy
to forget that it is also surprisingly big. There is no rich country of
equivalent size that is more densely populated. The only country which has both
more people than England and more people per square kilometre is Bangladesh.
What this means, experientially, is that there is a kind of denseness to
England and to Englishness; England is both very similar to itself and
significantly different when you move ten miles down the road.”
Magical Geniuses and Mathematics
Insights from the mathematical genius Srinivasa
Ramanujan
“The mathematician
Mark Kac divided all geniuses into two types: “ordinary” geniuses, who make you
feel that you could have done what they did if you were say, a hundred times
smarter, and “magical geniuses,” the working of whose minds is, for all intents
and purposes, incomprehensible. There is no doubt that Srinivas Ramanujan was a
magical genius, one of the greatest of all time. Just looking at any of his
almost 4,000 original results can inspire a feeling of bewilderment and awe
even in professional mathematicians: What kind of mind can dream up exotic gems
like these?”
Emory University mathematician Ken Ono:
“Ramanujan’s work
came through flights of fancy. If he had been asked to explain why he did his
work, he would probably say that he recorded formulas that he found beautiful,
and they were beautiful because they revealed some unexpected phenomenon. And
they’re important to us today because these special phenomena that Ramanujan
identified, over and over again, have ended up becoming prototypes for big
mathematical theories in the 20th and 21st centuries.”
The Great Math Mystery – PBS Nova
American Politics and Foreign Policy
Washington Post editorial
on Trump’s Foreign Policy
UPDATES:
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-21/trump-puts-america-s-allies-on-notice
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/22/us/politics/donald-trump-foreign-policy-interview.html
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/22/world/europe/donald-trumps-remarks-rattle-nato-allies-and-stoke-debate-on-cost-sharing.html
http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/07/clinton-trump-putin-nato/492332/http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/22/world/europe/donald-trumps-remarks-rattle-nato-allies-and-stoke-debate-on-cost-sharing.html
America – The Next Banana Republic?
“The Republican
Party has given itself up to a single family and its business interests. Its
convention has become a prime-time platform for the enhancement of that
family’s fame and fortune. Whatever happens to the party, the country and the
world, the Trump brand will come out of this election with even greater global
celebrity, and thus with many more possibilities to affix its name to condos,
golf clubs, suits and phony self-improvement courses. In fact, win or lose, one
consequence of this election could be that, finally, Donald Trump will be worth
what he claims.”
Roger Ailes – Rise and Fall of Fox News Creator
https://www.theguardian.com/media/2016/jul/21/roger-ailes-leaves-fox-news-sexual-harassment-claimsNew Housing Construction in Expensive Cities
Delays in new housing construction in expensive cities
https://www.washingtonpost.com/news/wonk/wp/2016/07/21/it-takes-way-too-long-to-build-new-housing-in-expensive-cities/
Related: http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2016/06/a-reality-on-check-on-housing.html
Related: http://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2016/06/a-reality-on-check-on-housing.html
Wednesday, July 20, 2016
Should Central Banks Issue Digital Currencies?
WSJ piece – The Central Bankers’ Bold New Idea: Print
Bitcoins
Related Bank of England research paper:
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2016/swp605.pdf
http://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/Documents/workingpapers/2016/swp605.pdf
India’s Struggle to Create a Genuine National Market
DW piece – India's long struggle to create a common
market
“Nearly seven decades
after India's independence, the country has yet to become a single market for
goods and services. Trade between states is subject to tariffs, and both the
federal as well as state governments levy a myriad of taxes discouraging
production and inter-state commerce.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has been attempting to change this with a big-ticket reform aimed at modernizing the nation's arcane tax code. If Modi succeeds, it would be mark a major achievement of his premiership and contribute to his core electoral promise of reinvigorating the economy.”
Prime Minister Narendra Modi's government has been attempting to change this with a big-ticket reform aimed at modernizing the nation's arcane tax code. If Modi succeeds, it would be mark a major achievement of his premiership and contribute to his core electoral promise of reinvigorating the economy.”
The Market for Calculators – A Strange Case of Monopoly Power
An interesting Washington
Post piece notes –
“In the ruthlessly
competitive world of technology, where companies rush the latest gadget to
market and slash prices to stay competitive, the TI-84 Plus is an anomaly.
Texas Instruments
released the graphing calculator in 2004, and continues to sell it today. The
base model still has 480 kilobytes of ROM and 24 kilobytes of RAM. Its
black-and-white screen remains 96×64 pixels. For 10 years its MSRP has been
$150, but depending on the retailer, today it generally sells for between $90
and $120. The only changes have come in software updates…
Electronics almost universally become cheaper over time. But with essentially a monopoly on graphing calculator usage in classrooms, Texas Instruments can charge a premium. Texas Instruments accounted for 93 percent of the U.S. graphing calculator sales from July 2013-June 2014.”
Electronics almost universally become cheaper over time. But with essentially a monopoly on graphing calculator usage in classrooms, Texas Instruments can charge a premium. Texas Instruments accounted for 93 percent of the U.S. graphing calculator sales from July 2013-June 2014.”
Tuesday, July 19, 2016
Unraveling of Turkey
From NYT - Turkey’s Latest Target in Mass Purge: Educators
“The crackdown
after Friday’s failed coup attempt continued, as more than 15,000 employees of
the education ministry were suspended, 1,500 university deans were ordered to
resign and 21,000 teachers lost their licenses.”
Turkey was
already undergoing a slow-motion coup
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2016/jul/16/turkey-coup-army-erdogan
Roger Cohen on the Turkish coup attempt:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/18/opinion/turkeys-coup-that-wasnt.html
Turkish born Harvard economist Dani Rodrik on Turkey's Baffling Coup
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/turkey-coup-erosion-of-law-by-dani-rodrik-2016-07
Roger Cohen on the Turkish coup attempt:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/18/opinion/turkeys-coup-that-wasnt.html
Turkish born Harvard economist Dani Rodrik on Turkey's Baffling Coup
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/turkey-coup-erosion-of-law-by-dani-rodrik-2016-07
NATO Weapons Stored in Turkey –
Potential Risks
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/the-h-bombs-in-turkey
The Economist
on the Turkish Coup Attempt and its Aftermath
http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21702509-recep-tayyip-erdogan-drifts-away-america-nato-and-eu-running-out-friends
From Der Spiegel: Erdogan's Putsch: Turkey's Post-Coup Slide
into Dictatorship
http://www.spiegel.de/international/world/coup-in-turkey-leads-to-erdogan-power-grab-a-1104261.htmlResource Economics (and Politics)
Economics of Renewable Energy
An interesting NYT piece –
How Renewable Energy Is Blowing Climate Change Efforts Off Course
Water Shortages in the Middle East – A Geo-Political Concern
Brahma Chellaney notes –
“There is no shortage
of challenges facing the Arab world. Given that many Arab states are modern
constructs invented by departing colonial powers, and therefore lack cohesive
historical identities, their state structures often lack strong foundations.
Add to that external and internal pressures – including from surging Islamism,
civil wars, and mass migration from conflict zones – and the future of several
Arab countries appears uncertain.
What few seem to recognize is how water scarcity contributes to this cycle of violence. One key trigger of the Arab Spring uprisings – rising food prices – was directly connected to the region’s worsening water crisis. Water also fuels tensions between countries. Saudi Arabia and Jordan, for example, are engaged in a silent race to pump the al-Disi aquifer, which they share.”
What few seem to recognize is how water scarcity contributes to this cycle of violence. One key trigger of the Arab Spring uprisings – rising food prices – was directly connected to the region’s worsening water crisis. Water also fuels tensions between countries. Saudi Arabia and Jordan, for example, are engaged in a silent race to pump the al-Disi aquifer, which they share.”
Household Saving, Financial Inclusion and Economic Development
Emerging Markets
RBI governor Rajan on financial inclusion and economic
development:
USA
Low household saving and the elderly in America
Economist Tyler Cowen notes:
“Often it’s argued that Americans are too strained by circumstance to save much more, but the evidence belies that view. China is much poorer, yet its citizenry often manages a household savings rate of 30 percent. And in the 1970s, a much poorer America had a savings rate that once reached 15 percent and hovered above 8 percent as recently as the early 1990s. Since then the American savings rate has fallen and has settled in the range of about 4 to 6 percent.”
“Often it’s argued that Americans are too strained by circumstance to save much more, but the evidence belies that view. China is much poorer, yet its citizenry often manages a household savings rate of 30 percent. And in the 1970s, a much poorer America had a savings rate that once reached 15 percent and hovered above 8 percent as recently as the early 1990s. Since then the American savings rate has fallen and has settled in the range of about 4 to 6 percent.”
Monday, July 18, 2016
Comparing Gas Prices Around the World
Interesting Graphic Tool:
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/gas-prices/
http://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/gas-prices/
Paul Romer – Next Chief Economist of World Bank
A surprise pick – Paul Romer to be the next Chief Economist
of World Bank
http://www.economist.com/news/21702339-paul-romer-banks-new-chief-economist-world-bank-hires-famous-contrarian
Romer on his appoint to the WB post:
https://paulromer.net/my-new-position-as-chief-economist-at-the-world-bank/
Romer on his appoint to the WB post:
https://paulromer.net/my-new-position-as-chief-economist-at-the-world-bank/
A 2001 interview with Paul Romer (from Reason magazine)
http://reason.com/archives/2001/12/01/post-scarcity-prophet
http://reason.com/archives/2001/12/01/post-scarcity-prophet
Sunday, July 17, 2016
Artificial Intelligence – Get Ready for the Next Tech Bubble
Hype surrounding Artificial Intelligence (AI) attracts investors:
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/18/technology/on-wheels-and-wings-artificial-intelligence-swarms-silicon-valley.htmlSaturday, July 16, 2016
Global Banking and Finance - Recent Developments
A Bank Too Big to Jail By GRETCHEN MORGENSON
Italy’s Banking Woes – Potential Headache for Eurozone
Economy
Deutsche Bank – Troubled German Giant
Ultra-Low Interest Rates – A Cause for Concern
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/12/upshot/can-we-ignore-the-alarm-bells-the-bond-market-is-ringing.htmlFriday, July 15, 2016
Inflation, Asset Prices and Real Returns [Updated]
Update - Nobel Laureate Robert Shiller - Why
Land and Homes Actually Tend to Be Disappointing Investments
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/17/upshot/why-land-may-not-be-the-smartest-place-to-put-your-nest-egg.html
Are Bonds Still a Good Investment?
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/17/upshot/why-land-may-not-be-the-smartest-place-to-put-your-nest-egg.html
Are Bonds Still a Good Investment?
WSJ Jason Zweig notes:
“With bonds
producing near-record-low levels of income worldwide, there’s never been a
worse time to invest in government and corporate debt. You earn next to nothing
now and, if interest rates finally rise, you will get clobbered later.
That’s the
conventional wisdom, and it’s wrong.
With 10-year U.S.
Treasury securities yielding just under 1.6%, a $10,000 investment produces a
paltry $158 in annual interest income. But, properly measured, the returns on
bonds are higher than they have often been in the past. And, for many bond
investors, rising rates will turn out to be a blessing, not a curse. Finally,
even if yields go lower from here, bonds will still provide valuable insurance
against losses in the rest of your portfolio.”
Are we too worried about inflation?
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-14/overcoming-our-inordinate-fear-of-inflation
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-14/overcoming-our-inordinate-fear-of-inflation
US, Japan and Dental Treatment Costs
NYTIMES piece notes:
“Nobody looks
forward to having a cavity drilled and filled by a dentist. Now there’s an
alternative: an antimicrobial liquid that can be brushed on cavities to stop
tooth decay — painlessly.
The liquid is
called silver diamine fluoride, or S.D.F. It’s been used for decades in Japan,
but it’s been available in the United States, under the brand name Advantage
Arrest, for just about a year.”
Obvious question – If the Japanese have been using the simple treatment for decades, why did it take
so long for American dentists to adopt the practice?
Wednesday, July 13, 2016
Competition, Complexity and Modern Economies
Declining competition is hurting the American economy
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/07/13/business/economy/antitrust-competition-inequality.html
Critique of Hilary Clinton's confused immigration stance
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/clinton-heads-the-wrong-way-on-immigration
Critique of Hilary Clinton's confused immigration stance
http://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2016-07-13/clinton-heads-the-wrong-way-on-immigration
The Costs of Monopoly: A New View
Is Financial Complexity Useful?
Tuesday, July 12, 2016
Pokémon Go – An Example of Herd-Like Behavior
Nintendo benefits from Pokémon Go craze:
“The game is perhaps
the first real success story of the use of augmented reality technology, which
blends the digital and real world together. The combined effect is part
bird-watching, part geocaching, part trophy-hunting, with a heavy dose of mid-1990s
nostalgia.”
Nintendo stock price spikes –
http://www.wsj.com/articles/pokemon-go-fueled-nintendo-just-keeps-going-1468302369
http://www.wsj.com/articles/pokemon-go-fueled-nintendo-just-keeps-going-1468302369
Monday, July 11, 2016
Economics and Politics of Migration
Population Dynamics and Demographic Trends -
Rich countries, poor countries and demographics
Rich countries, poor countries and demographics
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/migration-trend-young-and-poor-move-lands-aging-and-rich
Meanwhile, in Japan –
Political Concerns -
Meanwhile, in Japan –
As Japan's population shrinks, bears and
boars roam where schools and shrines once thrived
http://www.latimes.com/world/asia/la-fg-japan-population-snap-story.html
Political Concerns -
Adair Turner on migration related challenges facing policymakers
–
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brexit-migration-fear-justified-by-adair-turner-2016-07
Nationalism versus Globalism
http://www.the-american-interest.com/2016/07/10/when-and-why-nationalism-beats-globalism/
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