Attention Economy


Wednesday, March 9, 2016

Emi Nakamura - A Rising Star in Macroeconomics

Richmond Fed interview of Columbia University economist Emi Nakamura:
“EF: Do you think there really are such things as menu costs — meaning a direct cost to changing prices — given innovations such as bar codes? Or are “pure” fixed costs of price changes in models always really a stand-in for something else?
Nakamura: My sense is that literal menu costs are not very important. If managers wanted to have supermarkets where all the prices were digital, for example, it would be possible. Coca-Cola at one point tried to have a vending machine that had prices rise in hot weather and people got very irritated. So I think the right theory has to somehow take this into consideration. It’s interesting to think about why Uber has been able to have surge pricing and whether other sectors of the economy might be able to do that too. But when we look at long-term data on price rigidity, one of the things we just don’t see is prices getting more flexible over time. It actually looks like prices are getting stickier, because the inflation rate is falling. So I think the Calvo and menu cost models are simple empirical models for complicated processes that we don’t fully understand. The question is, why does price rigidity arise? In surveys of managers that ask why they don’t change their prices, they almost always say something about not wanting to upset their customers, this idea of implicit or explicit contracts with them. I have another paper with Jón on customer markets that tries to provide a model of this. Say you go to Starbucks every day, then in a sense you become “addicted.” So Starbucks has an opportunity to price gouge. But if you know that Starbucks is going to try to exploit you once you become addicted, then you may try to avoid going there in the first place. So it can be in the interest of both the firm and the customer for the firm to “commit to a sticky price.” This theory can help explain some of the patterns we see in the data — the fact that you see regular prices and downward deviations (sales) but basically never upward deviations (reverse sales). A similar theory applies to wages. You hire a cleaning person, and in principle, you could set their wages as being indexed to the CPI. But it’s not a simple thing for everybody in the world to pay attention to the CPI, so offering your cleaning person a wage indexed to the CPI probably wouldn’t be practical. A fixed wage salary is just a lot easier to understand. So maybe the right way of thinking about price rigidity, at a deep level, is some combination of customer markets and information frictions. But I think this is an area where measurement is ahead of theory, and the ideal model has yet to be written”