A timely Bloomberg piece:
From the article –
“After correcting the
spread between the three-month and ten-year Treasuries for the low nominal
policy rate, the probability of a recession in the next twelve months is a
little less than a coin flip, according to Deutsche Bank.
But others maintain
there's no reason to turn your back on the Old Faithful of recession indicators
just yet.
"Either the yield curve is a combination of forward expectations and risk premium or it isn't; 'normalizing' to a level of short rates strikes me as an exercise based entirely on capricious judgment rather than empirically observed outcomes," wrote Bespoke Investment Group Analyst George Pearkes.”
Update:
"Either the yield curve is a combination of forward expectations and risk premium or it isn't; 'normalizing' to a level of short rates strikes me as an exercise based entirely on capricious judgment rather than empirically observed outcomes," wrote Bespoke Investment Group Analyst George Pearkes.”
Update:
Why a Recession
Could Arrive Without a Yield Curve Warning - WSJ
http://www.wsj.com/articles/why-a-recession-could-arrive-without-a-yield-curve-warning-1454754607