Attention Economy


Wednesday, December 16, 2015

China - The Long View

FT columnist David Pilling offers a big picture perspective on China – “The doomsayers have it wrong about China”. [gated version]

Pilling wisely notes:
“It is easy to imagine China’s economic freight train going off the rails. When I came to Asia 14 years ago, many people in Japan, where the economy was then three times the size of China’s in nominal terms, were predicting precisely that. Surely, they reasoned, the system must crumble under its own contradictions. …
The conclusion, however, that the inherent stresses would lead to social chaos and bring the system crashing down was born of wishful thinking. It underestimated the Communist party’s achievements in bringing tangible improvements to the lives of hundreds of millions of people. It underestimated, too, the strength of its patriotic message: that, after more than 100 years of humiliation, China had, finally, in the words of Mao Zedong, “stood up”. Instead of collapsing, by some measures China has gone from strength to strength. Its output is more than twice the size of Japan’s. In purchasing-power parity terms, it overtook the US last year, making it the world’s biggest economy. In just 15 years, its gross domestic product per capita has jumped from 8 per cent of the US level to 25 per cent.”