Attention Economy


Sunday, November 15, 2015

India versus China – Who Will Lead the EM Growth Race?

An interesting piece by Tom Stevenson in The Telegraph:
Tom Stevenson notes:
“For a few reasons, I think investors are right to view India as the emerging market of choice. First, unlike many developing countries, India is not a hostage to the ebb and flow of the Chinese economy. As a net importer of commodities, India is a beneficiary of today’s low metal and energy prices. China may be India’s second-biggest destination for exports but it is way behind the US as a destination for Indian goods and services. Second, India’s economic development is years behind China’s, with enormous potential for catch-up. While the Middle Kingdom suffers slowing growth as it navigates a difficult transition from an export and investment-led economy to one fuelled by domestic consumption, India’s potential growth keeps rising. Goldman Sachs recently predicted that India could grow at an average of 9pc between 2016 and 2020 if it makes progress on structural reforms to its labour market, infrastructure and education.”