Attention Economy


Friday, October 23, 2015

Federal Reserve and the Art of Obfuscation

Adam Davidson notes in his NYTIMES piece –
“If the Fed added up all the ways a rate increase helped people in the short term and subtracted all the ways it hurt them, they would never raise rates. While there are winners and losers, on balance a Fed rate increase means the economy will slow down, which on average is worse for everybody. The entire point of a central bank like the Federal Reserve is to empower one group of people to do something as unpopular as slow the economy down. That’s because, from time to time, an economy grows so fast that it leads to a bubble, inflation or both. The Fed’s job is to predict when this is going to happen and stop it before it does by slowing the economy just as people feel the most excited. When the Fed eventually does raise rates, it will be covered with near hysteria. It will be on the front page of every paper, on every cable-news show. And most Americans won’t understand what any of it means. Their confusion won’t be helped by the media’s — and their own — instinct to understand the process through single significant moments. But trying to understand the Fed that way is like trying to make sense of a long marriage, with its small daily compromises, joys and miseries, by watching one big fight or one romantic dinner.”