Fascinating new research paper:
Does Good Economics Make for Good Politics? Evidence from Indian States by Milan Vaishnav (Carnegie Endowment for
International Peace) and Reedy Swanson (University of Virginia School of Law)
Abstract: The
proposition that voters reward incumbent governments that perform well
economically is considered received wisdom in many democracies. We examine this
hypothesis in India, a developing democracy where scholars have found limited
evidence of economic voting. Using a unique state-level panel dataset covering
the years 1980– 2012, we find that there is no relationship between growth and
electoral performance in the aggregate. However, since 2000, there do appear to
be increasing electoral returns to governments that deliver higher rates of
economic growth. The positive returns to growth are much larger than those to
improved law and order, while inflation has no clear impact. The results
suggest a significant shift in Indian voter behavior.