Chinese Trade Figures and the Health of the Global Economy

As China transitions away from investment-led growth, it will obviously import less commodities (or, at least the growth rate of commodity imports will decline). Also, it will be useful to keep in mind that the real imports (quantity) data may diverge from the value of imports when global commodity prices slump. What is puzzling is the weakness in China’s export growth – the world economy may be weaker than widely assumed:
http://blogs.reuters.com/macroscope/2015/09/08/chinas-falling-imports-an-ominous-sign-for-the-global-economy/

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Henny Sender’s interesting take on China –

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0c254038-5317-11e5-8642-453585f2cfcd.html

“Beijing understands way better than the Americans (or the current regime in Tokyo or at the Bank of Japan) that monetary policy alone cannot be the catalyst for economic growth. And the Chinese government has both the will and the resources to pursue more aggressive fiscal policy.

While it is true that the efficacy of investment has fallen, any veteran of the US long distance railway, Amtrak, even at its best, can testify to the value of China’s fast speed trains as they travel the 1,500km between Beijing and Shanghai at 300km an hour.

It is also worth recalling that 25 years ago, many analysts dismissed prosperous Pudong as a white elephant. Yet Shanghai, like an elephant growing into its wrinkled skin, has long since grown into the gleaming glass towers of Pudong across the Huangpu river”.

Capital Economics China Economist Julian Evans-Pritchard