Attention Economy


Tuesday, August 11, 2015

Global Demographics: Will the World Avoid the 'Malthusian Trap'?

Robin Harding of the FT offers a positive take on global demographic trends – The end of the Malthusian nightmare
http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/0d7d245a-400c-11e5-b98b-87c7270955cf.html
Harding states -
“The extent of the plunge in childbearing is startling. Eighty-three countries containing 46 per cent of the world’s population — including every single country in Europe — now have fertility below replacement rate of about 2.1 births per woman. Another 46 per cent live in countries where the birth rate has fallen sharply. In 48 countries the population will decline between now and 2050.
That leaves just 9 per cent of the world’s population, almost all in Africa, living in nations with pre-industrial fertility rates of five or six children per woman. But even in Africa fertility is starting to dip.”

The latest UN population projections –
The latest projections make the following article from The Economist appear rather ridiculous:
Total Fertility Rate versus Cohort Fertility Rate

Related:
Europe’s migrant crisis may turn out to be more consequential than the Greek crisis in the long run. Various perspectives on the topic –
http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/tourists-and-refugess-cross-paths-in-the-mediterranean-a-1046969.html