Attention Economy


Friday, December 20, 2013

US GDP Data Revised Up (Yet Again)


One wonders about the data collection and statistical abilities of the staff at BEA/Department of Commerce. The advance estimate for 2013Q3 real GDP growth rate was 2.8%, and the second estimate was 3.6%. Today’s release of the third estimate suggests that 2013Q3 real GDP growth rate was in fact 4.1%. Those are some serious data revisions (the third estimate is almost 50% higher than the first estimate). BEA should consider not releasing advance estimates.

 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-12-20/third-quarter-growth-in-u-s-revised-higher-on-services-spending.html

I feel sorry for professional macroeconomic forecasters who are often rewarded (year-end bonuses, etc.) based on the accuracy of their prognostication. Every major data revision probably screws up the rankings of top forecasters for the year.

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IMPORTANT: REAL GDI IS TRACKING WELL BELOW REAL GDP FOR 2013Q3; Real GDI rose only by 1.8%
http://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/national/gdp/gdpnewsrelease.htm