Attention Economy


Tuesday, December 17, 2013

Business Cycles versus Long-Term Trends


Recent reports on emerging markets have emphasized their relative economic slowdown (especially during 2012Q2-2013Q3). Much of the recent slowdown is cyclical and long-term growth prospects are still very attractive. From an economic standpoint, it is worth emphasizing that much of the emerging world is still quite far from the technological frontier and decades of rapid catch-up growth is still feasible. In other words, there are many low-hanging fruits waiting to be plucked in emerging markets. However, the pace of convergence is likely to vary across regions (Asia and Africa will likely grow faster than Latin America).

Kemal Dervis provides an excellent analysis of ‘catch-up growth’ here: