Rise of the Middle Powers

Canada’s Leader Heads to Asia and Australia to Build ‘Middle Power’ Bonds
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/28/world/canada/carney-asia-australia-visit.html
Mark Carney is visiting India, Australia and Japan, seeking deals to strengthen his country’s ties to Indo-Pacific powers and break Canada’s dependence on the U.S. 

India is signing trade deals with other middle powers. Canada cannot get lost in the shuffle
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-india-trade-deal-middle-powers-eu/

India and Israel pledge to boost ties in defence and technology
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cly14vppym2o
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-02-25/modi-seeks-to-deepen-india-israel-bond-with-defense-trade-deals

India’s Middle-Power Dilemma

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-will-struggle-to-join-middle-powers-alliance-due-to-foreign-policy-mindset-by-ajay-shah-2026-02
Many hope that India will participate in a coalition of middle powers to uphold a rule-based international order. But it will take time for the country’s foreign-policy establishment to move away from “strategic autonomy” as a guiding principle, and recent US behavior has confirmed skeptics’ arguments that the West is unreliable. 

India’s Middle-Power Strategy Won It a Reprieve from Trump’s Sky-High Tariffs
https://www.wsj.com/world/india/indias-middle-power-strategy-won-it-a-reprieve-from-trumps-sky-high-tariffs-31c23668
New Delhi powered ahead with trade deals that strengthened its hand in negotiations with the U.S.

The Predatory Hegemon
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/predatory-hegemon-walt

Squeezed by U.S. and China, the World’s Middle Powers Are Teaming Up
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/squeezed-by-u-s-and-china-the-worlds-middle-powers-are-teaming-up-77603dee
Nations are increasingly seeking to bypass the bigger players on trade, supply chains and security.

Active versus Passive Investing

Fewer active managers beat index funds last year.
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/02/25/active-managers-vs-index-funds.html

Better Conditions Did Not Yield Better Results for Active Managers in 2025
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/better-conditions-did-not-yield-better-results-active-managers-2025

Your Investing Strategy Is Great, So Long as You Don’t Actually Trade Anything

https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/your-investing-strategy-is-great-so-long-as-you-dont-actually-trade-anything-3a3d2b09
A look at a popular ETF shows why real-world returns don’t always live up to expectations. 

Unconventional wisdom: Investing in the age of passive: Market evolution or looming disaster?
https://www.morningstar.com.au/personal-finance/unconventional-wisdom-investing-age-passive-market-evolution-or-looming-disaster

The hidden cost of the passive investing boom
https://www.afr.com/markets/equity-markets/why-government-should-fear-the-decline-of-active-fund-managers-20260219-p5o3nt

Why Hands-Off Investing Pays Off
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/15/business/investing-fund-returns-interfere.html
Put money into low-cost stock and bond funds, but don’t forget the rest of the recipe: Leave your investments alone. 

When Boring Became Beautiful for Stock-Market Investors
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/index-funds-investing-stock-market-f747f46f
Index funds were first considered nonsense. That nonsense now rules among many individual investors.
 
The Dominance of Passive Investing and Its Effect on Financial Markets
https://merage.uci.edu/news/2024/10/The-Dominance-of-Passive-Investing-and-Its-Effect-on-Financial-Markets.html
 
Passive Investing and the Rise of Mega-Firms
https://personal.lse.ac.uk/vayanos/Papers/PIRMF_RFSf.pdf 

Big tech’s dominance is straining the logic of passive investing
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/07/20/big-techs-dominance-is-straining-the-logic-of-passive-investing
Both index providers and fund managers must adjust to the dominance of a few firms. 

Passive Investing and the Efficient Market Hypothesis
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2025/01/passive-investing-and-efficient-market.html

The AI Job Apocalypse Debate

Tech Has Never Caused a Job Apocalypse. Don’t Bet on It Now.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/tech-has-never-caused-a-job-apocalypse-dont-bet-on-it-now-d192b579
Neither theory, history nor the latest data suggests a recession driven by AI job dislocation is likely.

Mass Hysteria. Thousands of Jobs Lost. Just How Bad Is It Going to Get?
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/03/05/opinion/ai-jobs-white-collar-apocalpyse.html

Can A.I. Be Pro-Worker?
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/can-ai-be-pro-worker
As fears of mass unemployment grow, three leading economists advocate some policies to shift the focus from job displacement to job enhancement.

The Week the Dreaded AI Jobs Wipeout Got Real
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-week-the-dreaded-ai-jobs-wipeout-got-real-3ba5057b
After Block CEO Jack Dorsey announced his fintech firm was laying off 4,000 people, concerns rose that other companies would follow suit.

AI fears give tech CEOs convenient cover for cuts
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/ai-fears-give-tech-ceos-convenient-cover-cuts-2026-02-27/
Payments firm Block is firing nearly 50% of workers, saying automation lets it do more with less. It grew bloated during the pandemic and overpaid for questionable deals. A $6 bln stock jump illustrates the handiness of using disruption, real or imagined, to rebrand a clean-up.
 

BMW to use humanoid robots on production line
https://www.ft.com/content/2f7b77d0-e4d7-4bb2-b106-7e7199e6c312
Group joins Tesla and other carmakers as industry turns to AI-powered robots to cut labour and manufacturing costs.
 
India Built the World’s Back Office. A.I. Is Starting to Shrink It.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/27/technology/india-technology-jobs-ai.html

AI Gave Investors a Glimpse of the Future This Month. And They Sold Their Stocks
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/ai-gave-investors-a-glimpse-of-the-future-this-month-and-they-sold-their-stocks-2a9d2f0f
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite fell in February, dragged down by firms whose businesses might be disrupted.

My take from Feb 2025:
https://thehill.com/opinion/5151848-generative-ai-economic-concerns/
Looking ahead, the rise of generative artificial intelligence poses a much bigger challenge for policymakers. Generative AI appears to truly upend prior assumptions regarding the stability of high-skill positions as it can easily and rapidly perform many cognitive and non-routine tasks. Suddenly, white-collar jobs appear vulnerable. Entry-level positions in information technology, law, finance, accounting, marketing and other professional services are already experiencing cutbacks. 

Getting Rich in Modern China

How to get rich in modern China
https://www.economist.com/china/2026/02/24/how-to-get-rich-in-modern-china
Some of the country’s brightest are cashing in on a state-backed surge. 

Software Stocks - Historic Sell-Off

The $1.6 Trillion Meltdown That Swept Through Software Stocks
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-1-6-trillion-meltdown-that-swept-through-software-stocks-86c8b3a2
Concern over the threat AI poses has hit the shares of companies like Salesforce and Adobe hard. 

The Software Industry Will Survive AI
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-software-industry-will-survive-ai-9bed8e2e
Open-source code, from Linux to Netscape, was supposed to cause its collapse in the 1990s. 

US - Net Migration Trends

Americans Are Leaving the U.S. in Record Numbers
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/americans-leaving-the-us-migration-a5795bfa
More citizens are replanting overseas, drawn by a quality of life made easily affordable by the U.S.’s enviable salaries. “I wasn’t expecting to be surrounded by this many Americans.”

US role as global talent hub in doubt amid Trump’s visa crackdown
https://www.ft.com/content/c8114fd1-771b-49ac-98c3-a8acf6177626
Multinationals move workers abroad and consider setting up overseas bases as they struggle with immigration restrictions. 

Health Science

Super-Agers’ Brains Have a Special Ability, New Study Suggests
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/well/mind/super-agers-brain-neurons.html
The findings may help explain why this group has such exceptional memory.
 
Why Some People Thrive on Four Hours of Sleep
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/why-some-people-thrive-on-four-hours-of-sleep 

State of India's Military

India’s Military Makes Strides but Lags Behind China
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/indias-military-makes-strides-but-lags-behind-china-8511d226 

Economics of Illegal Drugs

The Economics of Illegal Drugs
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-economics-of-illegal-drugs-ae89f0fa 

Competition in the AI Sector

The Race to Dominate A.I. Is Brutally Competitive. That’s Good for Everyone.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/25/opinion/ai-industry-competition-innovation.html 

China’s Macroeconomic Development

Chen, Kaiji, and Tao Zha. 2025. "China's Macroeconomic Development: The Role of Gradualist Reforms." Journal of Economic Literature 63 (4): 1331–62.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jel.20251631
This paper provides analytic guides to recent literature on China’s macroeconomic development, emphasizing the critical role of the gradualist reform approach. Our analysis suggests that from 1978 to 1997, the gradualist approach contributed to China’s aggregate total factor productivity and economic growth primarily through policies that facilitated the reallocation of surplus labor from agriculture to nonagricultural sectors. Since 1998, the government’s focus shifted, with various reforms encouraging large enterprises, whether state owned or privately owned, to enter capital-intensive sectors, making capital deepening the main driver of economic growth. While this strategy sustained China’s GDP growth, it also increased trade tensions with global partners, created barriers to transitioning to a consumption-led economy, and threatened China’s long-term financial stability, casting long shadows over the Chinese economy. 

Investor Skepticism

Skeptical Investors Are Hunting for Ways to Short the AI Frenzy
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/skeptical-investors-are-hunting-for-ways-to-short-the-ai-frenzy-8790baf9
Traders are betting investments in the technology won’t pay off as investors become increasingly nervous about AI’s potential impact.
 
Private Equity Was Headed for a Correction, Even Without AI Gloom
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/private-equity-was-headed-for-a-correction-even-without-ai-gloom-aea842d2
Lower leverage, higher rates and tougher exits are among the problems facing the industry. 

IP and Economic Development

When Stronger IP Protection Stifles Innovation
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/weak-intellectual-property-protections-help-latecomers-build-innovation-capacity-by-keun-lee-2026-02
Countries at the technological frontier need strong intellectual-property protections to stimulate innovation. But a weaker IP-rights regime can enable latecomers to build their capabilities through imitation and minor improvements, before they are capable of producing high-level patentable inventions.  

Tech and Geopolitical Risk

The Looming Taiwan Chip Disaster That Silicon Valley Has Long Ignored
If China invades Taiwan and cuts off its chip exports to American companies, the tech industry and the U.S. economy would be crippled. 

Uncertainty Returns

In Trump Era, the Only Sure Thing for Businesses and Governments Is Uncertainty
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/in-trump-era-the-only-sure-thing-for-businesses-and-governments-is-uncertainty-d28d21e1 

Sizing Up the U.S. Economy in Trump’s First Year
https://www.wsj.com/economy/sizing-up-the-u-s-economy-in-trumps-first-year-07a68adf
President Trump has touted the economy’s performance under his watch, but the report card is a bit more mixed after his first year back in office.

AI Hypotheticals and Stock Market Reaction

Viral Doomsday Report Lays Bare Wall Street’s Deep Anxiety About AI Future
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/global-stocks-markets-dow-news-02-23-2026-06a32080
Citrini Research’s thought experiment rattled investors already wary of tech disruptions. The Dow industrials fell 822 points.

Taleb, Citrini Fuel AI Scare Trade as IBM Drops Most in 25 Years
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/software-payments-shares-tumble-citrini-162303649.html

 
THE 2028 GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE CRISIS
https://substack.com/home/post/p-188821754
A Thought Exercise in Financial History, from the Future. 

Anthropic launches new enterprise offerings, raising the heat on software companies
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/anthropic-launches-new-enterprise-offerings-raising-the-heat-on-software-companies-143054933.html

Policy bazooka could fend off jobless AI world
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/global-markets-breakingviews-2026-02-24/

Alternative Viewpoint: Ignore the AI Hysteria
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/ignore-the-ai-hysteria-b64eac84

Related:

Big Tech will only partly dissolve AI water risk
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/big-tech-will-only-partly-dissolve-ai-water-risk-2026-02-23/

Economics and Politics - US Edition

Trump’s Challenge to Free Market Capitalism
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/business/economy/trump-republicans-economy-capitalism.html
Stakes in private companies. Handshake deals with chief executives. The president’s economic policy has drifted far from principles that long defined the Republican Party. Is it capitalism at all?
 
New Yorkers will pay for this Instead of making government work, Mamdani plans to tax and spend his way to affordability
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2026/02/20/mamdani-nyc-budget-affordability-crisis/ 

International Diversification

U.S. investors are pulling money out of their own stock market at the fastest pace in at least 16 years as Big Tech returns fade and better-performing overseas markets look more attractive.
https://www.reuters.com/business/buy-america-bye-america-wall-street-exodus-gathers-pace-2026-02-20/ 

The Past and the Future

Historians Confirm: Tomorrow Won’t Be Better Than Today
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/22/opinion/history-hope-delusion.html 

Tech and the Human Brain

How technology is reshaping our minds

Competing demands on our attention are undermining our ability to focus.
https://www.ft.com/content/b56fcaba-b36d-44f1-affa-24a049a66638
FT’s Tej Parikh notes:
Technology is designed to create efficiency. It allows us to search, retrieve and analyze data faster, freeing us for higher thinking.
But humans have an inbuilt evolutionary tendency to conserve cognitive energy and seek out dopamine hits. Market economies optimize for this. As mental friction is engineered away, the tools we need for deeper cognition risk atrophying. For example, sustained concentration helps strengthen attention, tackling long texts deepens comprehension and forming arguments without prompts builds originality. 

How the smartphone took over the minds of an entire generation
https://www.afr.com/technology/how-the-smartphone-took-over-the-minds-of-an-entire-generation-20260220-p5o453
The tech revolution that started in 2000 has fundamentally disrupted our social cohesion and cultural foundations, and it’s only getting worse.

Gorillaz - New Track [MUSIC]

Gorillaz - Orange County ft Bizarrap, Kara Jackson, Anoushka Shankar
https://youtu.be/QO7b_xX-Z-g
https://youtu.be/X70VHzox6uA 

Humanity's Demise

Silicon Valley’s Favorite Doomsaying Philosopher
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/the-lede/silicon-valleys-favorite-doomsaying-philosopher
Nick Land believes that digital superintelligence is going to kill us all. In San Francisco, his followers ask: What if, instead of trying to stop an A.I. takeover, you work to bring it on as fast as possible? 

Tech Booms – AI versus Dot-Com

People Loved the Dot-Com Boom. The A.I. Boom, Not So Much.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/21/technology/ai-boom-backlash.html
Tech leaders are beginning to worry about the public’s underwhelming enthusiasm for their plans to remake the world with artificial intelligence. 

The AI productivity boom is not here (yet)

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/02/22/the-ai-productivity-boom-is-not-here-yet

Artificial intelligence is improving fast. Its effect on output, not so much.

Trump's Tariff War Enters a New Phase

Why Tariffs Aren’t Shrinking the U.S. Trade Deficit
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/why-tariffs-arent-shrinking-the-u-s-trade-deficit-30a4dd0a
Exporting countries are sticking to their economic models, frustrating U.S. hopes that levies can fix imbalances.
 
Tariffs Are a Wild Card for the Economy Again
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/tariffs-are-a-wild-card-for-the-economy-again-898a0a30
With the bulk of Trump’s tariffs struck down by the Supreme Court, and a new, temporary global tariff in place, fresh questions are hanging over the U.S. economy.
Related: https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/what-to-know-about-trumps-new-tariff-73aef4e9

It’s the End of the Beginning of the Tariff War
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/its-the-end-of-the-beginning-of-the-tariff-war-88a08d37
The Supreme Court rules against Trump, but his administration has been working on Plan B.
 
Trump Lost on Tariffs, but Trade Will Never Be the Same
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/trump-lost-on-tariffs-but-trade-will-never-be-the-same-7ff24afc
U.S. trade policy will be less chaotic, but it won’t go back to what prevailed before 2025.
Related: https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/supreme-court-trump-tariffs-decision-explained-61d5ca9b 

Big Tech's Lobbying Power

Inside the Big Tech Lobbying Machine Aiming to Halt Social Media Bans
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/21/business/dealbook/big-tech-lobbying-social-media-bans.html
Tech giants, including Meta and Alphabet, are spending lavishly on splashy billboard ads, courting on-the-fence politicians and bulking up their ranks of lobbyists. 

China's Economy - Updates

China’s Private Sector Pivot
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-private-sector-pivot
How Beijing Is Encouraging Entrepreneurs Without Giving Up Control.
 
Energy Dominance with Chinese Characteristics
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/energy-dominance-chinese-characteristics
Why Beijing Holds the Power in the Century Ahead. 

Germany's Demographic Challenges

Can Germany Reclaim Its Destiny Despite Its Demography?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/can-germany-reclaim-its-destiny-despite-its-demography-8e0f44c8
A rapidly aging population puts the country—and therefore Europe—on a path toward a growth cliff. 

US Trade Deficit in 2025

The Embarrassing Truth About Tariffs
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/kevin-hassett-tariffs-study-federal-reserve-bank-of-new-york-donald-trump-b485dbb7
Why is Trump so upset about Federal Reserve economic research into his trade policies?

In 2025, Trade Deficit in Goods Reached Record High
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/19/business/economy/imports-tariffs-trade-deficit.html
The trade deficit remained historically large last year, new data showed, as President Trump’s steep tariffs scrambled trade but did not halt it.
 
America Imported a Record Amount Last Year Despite Seismic Trade Policy Changes
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/u-s-trade-deficit-grew-in-december-da4afda5 

How Trump’s Tariffs Changed the Year in Trade
https://www.wsj.com/economy/trade/tariffs-commerce-department-trade-data-5a0fa077
America still bought a lot more than it sold in 2025, despite shifting tariff policies.
 
Millions of Visitors Short: America’s Continuing Tourism Slump
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/20/travel/us-tourism-declines-eu-canada.html
Last year, the U.S. was the only major destination to see a decline in international travelers. With unpredictable policies, the new year isn’t looking better.

Boomers in Charge

Over 65? Congratulations, You Own the Economy
https://www.wsj.com/economy/over-65-congratulations-you-own-the-economy-5acea4c4
The elderly are physically and financially healthier than ever. So why do their needs keep taking priority over younger generations? 

Xi’s Purge of the Military

How China’s Xi Purged His ‘Big Brother’ to Achieve Absolute Power
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/xi-purge-general-big-brother-4fc7a13d
The Beijing leader consolidated one-man rule last month in rapid-fire actions against the military’s senior commanders.

In Xi’s Purge of the Military, a Search for Absolute Loyalty
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/16/world/asia/xi-military-zhang-youxia-mao.html
By reaching back to Maoist tactics of “rectification,” the Chinese leader is signaling that control over the gun requires a state of perpetual cleansing. 

Bond Markets Get Interesting

How the World’s Most Boring Market Became a ‘Battlefield’
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/18/business/jgb-trade-excitement.html
Trading of Japanese government bonds, long considered moribund, is roaring back to life as fears of the country’s debt have sent yields surging.
 
Bonds swept up in leap of faith on AI productivity
https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/bonds-swept-up-leap-faith-ai-productivity-2026-02-18/ 

Taxing Wealth

Billionaires’ Low Taxes Are Becoming a Problem for the Economy
https://www.wsj.com/finance/billionaires-low-taxes-are-becoming-a-problem-for-the-economy-27a560ca
Tax avoidance by the superwealthy is an economic issue as well as a political one. 

Are Wealth Taxes the Best Way to Tax the Ultra Rich?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/10/31/business/economy/wealth-tax-france.html
 
Don’t tax wealth
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/10/02/dont-tax-wealth
 
The First Politically Viable Wealth Tax
https://prospect.org/2025/10/23/unveiled-today-first-politically-viable-wealth-tax
 
New Report Shows How States Can Raise Billions by Taxing the Wealthy
https://itep.org/new-report-shows-how-states-can-raise-billions-by-taxing-the-wealthy
 
Author of 'The Second Estate' argues that America's tax code has created a new aristocracy
https://www.npr.org/2025/11/01/nx-s1-5568000/author-of-the-second-estate-argues-that-americas-tax-code-has-created-a-new-aristocracy 

Regulating AI

The AI Trilemma: How to Regulate a Revolutionary Technology
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/ai-trilemma 

‘Woke’ AI Feud Escalates Between Pentagon and Anthropic
https://www.wsj.com/politics/national-security/woke-ai-spat-escalates-between-pentagon-and-anthropic-433b7c5c
The Pentagon might ask contractors and vendors to certify that they don’t use Anthropic’s Claude amid tensions over how its tools are used.
 
Land Grab for Data Centers Is One More Obstacle to Much-Needed Housing
https://www.wsj.com/real-estate/data-center-land-deals-housing-shortage-81ea6e09
Resistance grows to more land sales in Northern Virginia. “They’d rather have homes than data,” said a former Prince William County supervisor.

Will Sweden Join the Euro Area?

Trump’s New World Order Is Pushing Sweden to Warm Up to the Euro
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-world-order-pushing-sweden-050004948.html/ 

Is Spain an Outlier on Immigration?

Across the West, governments are imposing much tougher laws on immigration.
https://www.facebook.com/fareedzakaria/videos/across-the-west-governments-are-imposing-much-tougher-laws-on-immigrationbut-spa/1333621682116916/
But Spain is doing the opposite — and plans to grant legal status to hundreds of thousands of undocumented migrants.
 
Spain to grant legal status to half a million undocumented migrants
https://edition.cnn.com/2026/01/27/europe/spain-legal-status-undocumented-migrants-latam-intl 

Indian-Americans Face Backlash for Being Too Successful

How the Visa Debate for Foreign Workers Fuels Racism Against South Asians
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/16/us/politics/h1b-visa-debate-racism-south-asians.html
Indians are now the largest Asian group in the United States among people who identify with one country of origin, though they constitute only about 1.5 percent of the overall population, according to a 2023 census report.
Among Asians in the United States, Indians are on average the wealthiest and most highly educated. They are often highly politically and civically engaged, which experts say is a result of India’s robust democratic tradition and English proficiency. And they are also increasingly prominent as big tech executives, national political figures and Hollywood stars. 

Will Inflation Pickup Again?

The Break Is Over. Companies Are Jacking Up Prices Again.
https://www.wsj.com/business/price-increases-consumers-businesses-b70e4542
Higher tariffs, labor and health-insurance costs have pushed many businesses to raise prices for consumers. 

Global MBA Rankings – 2026

FT's Global MBA Rankings – 2026:
https://rankings.ft.com/rankings/3006/mba-2026
 
MIT Sloan tops FT Global MBA Ranking for the first time
https://www.ft.com/content/414d2b8c-20d4-4892-a730-255c0af7edb8 

Gen Z - A New Generation of Equity Investors

Gen Z, Locked Out of Home Buying, Puts Its Money in the Market
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/gen-z-investments-home-ownership-ec0bbe98
The share of young people transferring funds to investment accounts has climbed steeply over a decade. 

Human Intuition Still Matters

Why Human Intuition Is Still Science’s Greatest Tool in the Age Of AI
https://www.noemamag.com/why-human-intuition-is-still-sciences-greatest-tool-in-the-age-of-ai/
Our sense for aesthetics, meaning and embodiment give us a vital advantage over our technological creations. 

EM versus G-7 Currencies

Carry Trade, Commodities Make EM Currencies More Stable Than G-7
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/carry-trade-commodities-em-currencies-133000108.html/ 

Robots and Demographics

China has another solution to its shrinking population: robots
https://www.cnn.com/2026/02/13/china/china-population-robots-intl-hnk-dst 

Progress made on AI-powered humanoid robots
https://youtu.be/CbHeh7qwils

Huntington's Clash of Civilizations

The Clash of Civilizations Was an Inside Job
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/2026/02/clash-civilizations-huntington-wrong/685950/ 

Equity Markets - Interesting Items

In a Chaotic Market, Investors Learn How to Cope with Surprises
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/in-a-chaotic-market-investors-learn-how-to-cope-with-surprises-f499e88c
One year into the second Trump administration, traders and investors say they are getting used to “event risk,” outsize market swings triggered by unexpected news.

Crises Everywhere, but the Markets Don’t Seem to Mind
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/13/business/markets-crisis-trump.html
Stocks have prospered while the world has plunged into disorder, an economist says. “Keep calm and carry on” may be the best investors can do.  

The Big Scary Myth Stalking the Stock Market
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-big-scary-myth-stalking-the-stock-market-29aedf50
Having 33% of your portfolio in seven companies is less risky than it sounds. 

Crypto is Down

The Coming Crypto Apocalypse
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-coming-crypto-apocalypse-85833.html
The future of money and payments will feature gradual evolution, not the revolution that crypto-grifters promised. Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies’ latest plunge further underscores the highly volatile nature of this pseudo-asset class; one only hopes that policymakers will wake up to the risks before it’s too late. 

Related:

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/02/10/the-coldest-crypto-winter-yet

Seeking Alternatives to the Dollar Standard

Could a BRICS Currency Work?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/brics-currency-by-jim-o-neill-2026-02
Economists have long dismissed the idea that a BRICS common currency could challenge the US dollar's role in the global economy, and for good reason. But that doesn't mean there couldn't be new common rails for settling trade between countries that want to escape the long arm of the US government.
 
Could the world move away from the dollar?
https://youtu.be/r_VlnirCdAE 

Understanding Claude

What Is Claude? Anthropic Doesn’t Know, Either
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2026/02/16/what-is-claude-anthropic-doesnt-know-either
Researchers at the company are trying to understand their A.I. system’s mind—examining its neurons, running it through psychology experiments, and putting it on the therapy couch. 

An Investment Bet Gone Wrong

Detroit Automakers Take $50 Billion Hit as EV Bubble Bursts
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/detroit-automakers-take-50-billion-hit-as-ev-bubble-bursts-06a97414
Companies are taking big losses and making moves to reduce electric-vehicle capacity amid regulatory changes and cooling demand. 

AI - A Threat to Higher Education?

A.I. Companies Are Eating Higher Education
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/12/opinion/ai-companies-college-students.html 

On Gender Pay Gap

What drives the wage gap between men and women?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2026/02/11/what-drives-the-wage-gap-between-men-and-women 

Brazil’s Economic Challenges

The rich world should beware Brazilification
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2026/02/12/the-rich-world-should-beware-brazilification
When governments are indebted, high interest rates wreak havoc.
 
Brazil’s economy is being throttled by entrenched interests
https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2026/02/11/brazils-economy-is-being-throttled-by-entrenched-interests 

A Warning Sign

Americans With Higher Incomes Are Starting to Fall Behind on Payments
https://www.wsj.com/personal-finance/americans-with-higher-incomes-are-starting-to-fall-behind-on-payments-472d3a24
Rising debt levels and more missed payments pushed a financial stress gauge to its highest level ever. 

Expensive Healthcare

Why is US health care still the most expensive in the world after decades of cost-cutting initiatives?
https://theconversation.com/why-is-us-health-care-still-the-most-expensive-in-the-world-after-decades-of-cost-cutting-initiatives-273743 

Too Much Liquidity in the Financial System?

Alphabet’s Rare 100-Year Bond Tells Us That Money Is Easy
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/alphabets-rare-100-year-bond-tells-us-that-money-is-easy-779117ed
This is a great time for companies to borrow. It isn’t obviously a great time to lend to them. 

Revised Data Offers a Reality Check on the US Labor Market

Job Growth Last Year Was Worse Than We Thought. Here’s Why.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/job-growth-last-year-was-far-worse-than-we-thought-heres-why-4308db41
 
Job Growth Was Overstated, New Data Shows
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/business/economy/january-jobs-report-revisions.html
Annual revisions show that employers added far fewer jobs in 2024 and 2025 than previously estimated.

BLS Report: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/pdf/empsit.pdf

Healthcare Propels U.S. to Strongest Job Growth Since Late 2024
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/january-jobs-report-unemployment-b703b0e3

State of US Labor Market:
https://www.hiringlab.org/2026/02/11/january-2026-jobs-report/
Significant revisions to 2025 data pushed last year's payroll employment down by 403,000 jobs, resulting in the addition of just 181,000 jobs last year. 

Natives versus Immigrants

What Replaces Deported Immigrant Workers? Not Americans. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/opinion/immigration-farming-trump-robots-labor.html 

Forecasting - Pros versus Amateurs

Thousands of Amateur Gamblers Are Beating Wall Street Ph.D.s 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/11/business/economy/forecasts-prediction-markets-economy.html
Economists have noticed that betting markets like Kalshi and Polymarket are pretty good at predicting not just political events but economic data, too.  

Will AI Disrupt the Financial Sector?

Wealth Manager Stocks Sink as Traders Flee Next AI Casualty
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wealth-manager-stocks-sink-ai-172526640.html 

Related:

America Isn't Ready for What AI Will Do to Jobs
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/2026/03/ai-economy-labor-market-transformation/685731/

K-Shaped Economy and the Restaurant Sector

K-shaped economy: What new data is revealing about the consumer
https://finance.yahoo.com/video/k-shaped-economy-data-revealing-171859781.html

America's K-shaped economy has turned restaurant winners and losers upside down
https://www.businessinsider.com/america-k-shaped-economy-breaking-fast-food-playbook-2026-2
 
What fast food’s downturn says about the US economy
https://www.ft.com/content/9643e9b8-a4d8-49e2-8c16-20c1a1c5ca4b
Restaurants have raised prices to offset rising labor and ingredient costs, leading low-income customers to visit less often. 

The Great Rotation Trade

The AI Boom Cuts Both Ways
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-ai-boom-cuts-both-ways-85697.html

Wall Street’s anything-but-tech trade shakes up US stock market
https://www.ft.com/content/577b97f6-2416-48b9-9bd3-717bb202ca71
Energy groups, small caps and materials companies have displaced AI-linked shares as best performers. 

Capital versus Labor Share of Income

The Big Money in Today’s Economy Is Going to Capital, Not Labor by Greg Ip

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/capital-labor-wealth-economy-2fcf6c2f

Soaring profits and stocks funnel more of GDP toward companies, their top employees and shareholders. AI will intensify this trend.

Can productivity boom lift US workers' record low share of GDP? Unlikely
https://www.reuters.com/markets/us/can-productivity-boom-lift-us-workers-record-low-share-gdp-unlikely-2026-02-11/

‘We deserve more’: US workers’ share of the pie dwindles

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/06/workers-income-labor-

 

“Perspectives on the Labor Share,” by Loukas Karabarbounis

https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jep.38.2.107

As of 2022, the share of US income accruing to labor is at its lowest level since the Great Depression. Updating previous studies with more recent observations, I document the continuing decline of the labor share for the United States, other countries, and various industries. I discuss how changes in technology and product, labor, and capital markets affect the trend of the labor share. I also examine its relationship with other macroeconomic trends, such as rising markups, higher concentration of economic activity, and globalization. I conclude by offering some perspectives on the economic and policy implications of the labor share decline.

Demographics and Immigration

Pritchett, Lant. 2026. "Global Labor Mobility between Shrinking and Growing Labor Forces." Journal of Economic Perspectives 40 (1): 71–92.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.20251461
Abstract
Falling fertility and improved mortality create a powerful and inexorable demographic arithmetic of ageing in the coming decades around the world, with three patterns. The richest countries, along with China and the Former Soviet Union, will see absolute declines in the labor force aged (15–64) population and absolute rises in those 65 plus. All major developing country regions except for Africa: Latin America, South-East Asia and Pacific, South Asia, and West Asia/Middle East, will experience modest labor force growth to 2050 (less than 30 percent) aged combined with rapid growth of those over 65 (doubling or tripling). The fall in fertility in Africa (Sub-Saharan and North) started later and has fallen much less and hence, in standard scenarios for 2050, Africa will account for 80 percent of all global net growth in the world's labor force aged. A fundamental feature of the global economy over the medium-run to 2050 is that that highest labor productivity countries will have absolutely fewer native-born workers and Africa, home to many of the world's lowest productivity countries, will have 800 million more labor force aged. The combination makes possible gains on the order of trillions of dollars to policies that creating legal pathways to allow people, particularly youth, to move from low productivity, labor abundance places to high productivity, labor scarcity places. But, so far, politics has not found the way to "yes" for this win-win scenario. 

Florida versus Alabama

Florida’s Fading Appeal Is a Blessing for Alabama by Conor Sen
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2026-02-09/florida-s-fading-appeal-is-a-blessing-for-alabama 

Asian Immigration to the United States

Postel, Hannah M. 2026. "Asian Immigration to the United States in Historical Perspective." Journal of Economic Perspectives 40 (1): 191–214.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.20251453
Asian Americans are the fastest-growing immigrant group in the United States, yet Asian immigration remains relatively understudied in quantitative social science. This paper reviews the historical evolution of Asian immigration, focusing on six major origin countries—China, Japan, India, the Philippines, Korea, and Vietnam—to show how US immigration and foreign policy shaped the size and composition of immigrant arrivals. It then examines subsequent patterns of demographic composition, geographic settlement, and socioeconomic characteristics. Taken together, the evidence highlights the enduring influence of US policy regimes on Asian immigration over time.
 
Khanna, Gaurav. 2026. "From Asia, with Skills." Journal of Economic Perspectives 40 (1): 215–40.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/jep.20251454
This paper examines the rise of high-skill migration from Asia to the United States since 1990 and its consequences for sending and receiving economies. Over 1990–2019, migrants from India, China, South Korea, Japan, and the Philippines accounted for over one-third of US growth in software developers and a quarter of the increase in scientists, engineers, and physicians. Using census microdata, visa records, and administrative sources, I show how growing US demand for talent in information technology, higher education, and healthcare interacted with Asia’s demographic and educational transformations. Policy reforms in the H-1B, F-1, and J-1 programs and sectoral shifts—such as the internet revolution and aging-related healthcare demand—generated persistent needs for foreign students and workers. Asian economies were uniquely positioned to meet this demand through tertiary expansion, strong STEM institutions, English proficiency, and diaspora networks. These inflows boosted US innovation while fostering “brain gain” and “brain circulation” in Asia. 

A Cooling Labor Market

This Is Why It’s So Hard to Find a Job Right Now
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/this-is-why-its-so-hard-to-find-a-job-right-now-f18bd1c0
A ‘deep freeze’ has enveloped the U.S. labor market. A whole bunch of factors are at play.
 
Why Unemployment is Rising Among Young College Grads
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/why-unemployment-is-rising-among-young-college-grads-42d037da
Their skills, experience and ability to function are increasingly out of step with employers’ needs.
 
Job Hunters Are So Desperate That They’re Paying to Get Recruited
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/job-hunters-are-so-desperate-that-theyre-paying-to-get-recruited-44891ac2
A tough labor market for white-collar workers has turned the age-old recruiting model upside down. 

Weak Hiring, Layoff Plans Paint a Gloomy Labor-Market Picture

https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/weak-hiring-layoff-plans-paint-a-gloomy-labor-market-picture-cfda129d
Ahead of the government’s delayed January jobs report, a mix of other federal and private data points to a rough start to the new year.

Job openings sink in December to lowest level since 2020
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-openings-sink-in-december-to-lowest-level-since-2020-151605057.html

Last month was the worst January for layoff plans since 2009: Challenger
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/last-month-was-the-worst-january-for-layoff-plans-since-2009-challenger-131244531.html 

Red States and School Reforms

These Three Red States Are the Best Hope in Schooling
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/09/opinion/red-states-good-schools.html 

American Foreign Policy and Oil

Trump’s Oil Grab in Venezuela Shatters an American Taboo
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/08/us/politics/trump-oil-venezuela.html
U.S. presidents have long been accused of plotting to control foreign oil. But President Trump has asserted a U.S. right to take it. 

Geopolitics and the Bond Markets

Bond Markets Are Now Battlefields
https://foreignpolicy.com/2026/02/06/finance-trump-europe-us-treasurys-greenland/ 

Takaichi's smooth victory may yet signal rocky ride for Japan's yen, bonds
https://www.reuters.com/markets/asia/takaichis-smooth-victory-may-yet-signal-rocky-ride-japans-yen-bonds-2026-02-09/

Ousting Starmer could turn Britain into an economic basket case like France
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2026/02/08/ousting-starmer-turn-britain-into-economic-basket-france/

The Crypto Industry Enables Political Corruption

One Generation Runs the Country. The Next Cashed in on Crypto
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/trump-sons-crypto-billions-1e7f1414
Sons of top Trump administration officials made billions for their families, but their investors didn’t always fare so well. 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/07/business/binance-trump-crypto.html 

Big Tech's Capex Plans

Big Tech’s AI Push Is Costing a Lot More Than the Moon Landing
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-spending-tech-companies-compared-02b90046
As a percentage of GDP, the projected spending of four tech giants for 2026 rivals the most momentous capital efforts in U.S. history. 

Dow 50000

Road to Dow 50000 Was Perilous. What’s Next Could Be Rockier.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-road-to-dow-50000-was-perilous-whats-next-could-be-rockier-da80b250 

The Dow, the Uncool Index, Has Its Moment in the Sun
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-dow-the-uncool-index-has-its-moment-in-the-sun-6afd5fbb
The Dow industrials reached 50000 this past week. The younger crowd is unimpressed.

The Financialization of the American Economy

The Finance Industry Is a Grift. Let’s Start Treating It That Way.
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/opinion/capitalism-industry-financialization.html
Oren Cass:
Financialization has made American businesses less resilient, less innovative and less competitive. It has been a major cause of slow wage growth and rising inequality. It has fueled the loss of manufacturing jobs across the heartland. It has corrupted sectors in which the profit motive was never meant to reign supreme — veterinary practices, funeral parlors, campgrounds, residential treatment services, youth sports, hospitals and nursing homes, even suppliers for volunteer fire departments — consolidating and managing them with ruthless efficiency, squeezing their vulnerable customers and then pointing to the higher cash flow as “value creation.” 

Oren Cass Uses Good Economics in Attacking Finance in NYT
https://cepr.net/publications/oren-cass-uses-good-economics-in-attacking-finance-in-nyt/
 
Arcand, J.L., Berkes, E. & Panizza, U. Too Much Finance?. J Econ Growth 20, 105–148 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10887-015-9115-2
Abstract
This paper examines whether there is a threshold above which financial depth no longer has a positive effect on economic growth. We use different empirical approaches to show that financial depth starts having a negative effect on output growth when credit to the private sector reaches 100 % of GDP. Our results are consistent with the “vanishing effect” of financial depth and that they are not driven by endogeneity, output volatility, banking crises, low institutional quality, or by differences in bank regulation and supervision.

Related: 

Financialization

https://peri.umass.edu/wp-content/uploads/2025/06/WP628.pdf  

Crypto's Track Record

After Slump, Bitcoin Now Trails S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, Gold Over Five Years
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/after-slump--bitcoin-now-trails-s-p-500--nasdaq-100--gold-over-five-years-85785.html
 
Related:
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/05/technology/bitcoin-price-drop-crypto-market.html 

AI and Financial Market Turmoil

The Dark Side of A.I. Weighs on the Stock Market
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/business/the-dark-side-of-ai-weighs-on-the-stock-market.html
The prospect of disruptions from A.I. has hung over the U.S. economy for years. But this week, advances in tools precipitated a sell-off on Wall Street.

Here’s Where AI Is Tearing Through Corporate America
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-software-business-stock-market-4b17b432
The latest advances have companies—and the stock market—rethinking the software that handles jobs big and small.

 
The Week Anthropic Tanked the Market and Pulled Ahead of Rivals
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/the-week-anthropic-tanked-the-market-and-pulled-ahead-of-its-rivals-ef59dff1
Once a distant second or third in the AI race, the company is moving to the front with a focus on caution, coding and business clients.
 
The Software Rout Is Spreading Pain to the Debt Markets
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/the-software-rout-is-spreading-pain-to-the-debt-markets-d6dd1397
The tech sector has an outsize presence in loan portfolios, raising the risk of contagion.
 
It’s Time to Rethink Investment Advice. But Not Too Much, Our Columnist Says. 
https://www.nytimes.com/2026/02/06/business/market-risk-investing-index-funds.html 

Real Wages and Cost of Living

How wages compare with inflation since 2020
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/01/13/how-wages-compare-with-inflation-since-2020.html
After falling behind during the inflation surge, wage growth has outpaced inflation over the past two years, allowing pay to catch up by most measures. Even so, over the full period since the pandemic began, inflation-adjusted wages show little net improvement overall.
Since the first quarter of 2020, wages adjusted for CPI have been largely flat across several common measures, according to analysis from the Hamilton Project, a nonpartisan economic research group. Taken together, the data show that inflation-adjusted wage growth since 2020 has been close to zero.
 
---
Many U.S. Households Feel Like They Can’t Get Ahead Financially – and They’re Right
https://crr.bc.edu/many-u-s-households-feel-like-they-cant-get-ahead-financially-and-theyre-right/
A household with $83,730 is at the 50th percentile, right in the middle of the income distribution.  Those with $175,700 fall at the 80th percentile, putting them in the top 20% of all households.  Only those at the 90th percentile and above have incomes in excess of $250,000. 

Fragmenting of the World Order

The American and Chinese Economies Are Hurtling Toward a Messy Divorce
https://www.wsj.com/world/china/us-china-decouple-economy-minerals-tech-602fdee6
The breakup is focused on sensitive matters now considered national-security issues, including semiconductors, food and energy.
 
How Donald Trump Is Eroding U.S. Economic Dominance
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/how-trump-is-debasing-the-dollar-and-eroding-us-economic-dominance
The President’s coercive policies are prompting some foreign investors to think twice about parking their money with Uncle Sam.