Economic Development in Africa

The Agricultural Fixes Africa Needs
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/africa-sustainable-agricultural-productivity-gains-can-reverse-rise-in-hunger-by-esther-ngumbi-2025-08
While the number of people facing hunger globally declined last year, Africa experienced an uptick in undernourishment. But the continent’s policymakers can reverse this trend by improving agricultural productivity, which requires restoring soil fertility, embracing innovation, and investing in human capital.
 
Africa’s Green Economy Is a Good Investment
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/green-projects-in-africa-deliver-high-investment-returns-acs2-by-fitsum-assefa-adela-2025-08
While Africa is a poster child for climate vulnerability, it is also a model of climate possibility, boasting vast renewable resources, rich biodiversity, a young population, and a pipeline of bankable green projects. Investors should be clamoring to seize these opportunities, beginning at the upcoming Second Africa Climate Summit.
 
Recommitting to Human Security in Africa
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/africa-must-stay-committed-to-human-security-framework-it-helped-develop-by-adekeye-adebajo-2025-08
A report recently published by the United Nations Development Programme highlights what Africa’s scholars and policymakers have long argued: that human security underpins development. Faced with complex crises, today’s leaders must re-embrace this innovative framework, which is grounded in African experiences and values. 

A Different Vision of the AI Future

China Has a Different Vision for AI. It Might Be Smarter.
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/china-has-a-different-vision-for-ai-it-might-be-smarter-581f1e44
Xi Jinping is pushing the country’s tech industry to build practical, low-cost tools that boost the country’s efficiency and can be marketed easily. 

Back to the K-Shaped Economy?

The Middle-Class Vibe Has Shifted from Secure to Squeezed
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/the-middle-class-vibe-has-shifted-from-secure-to-squeezed-a41f64f8
Households earning between $50,000 and $100,000 are trading down, cutting back and feeling increasingly strapped, while high earners keep on spending. 

America's Education Crisis

America’s education crisis threatens to unravel a superpower by Melissa Lawford
And Meike Eijsberg
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/31/americas-brain-power-withers-as-china-powers-ahead/
As the US endures falling math and literacy skills, Chinese students are powering ahead. 

Economics in a Complicated World

How economists lost traction: Experts are struggling in a less predictable world rife with simple and popular answers
https://www.ft.com/content/6e7c6db8-c073-4bb6-9727-50a677dcbf56
The profession can strengthen its foundations by developing cross disciplinary knowledge, real-time data sources and scenario tools to better model a more complex world of fewer constants. But if economists retreat, debates will be dominated by leaders more interested in consolidating power than in sound economic outcomes. The backlash against economics is too consequential to be left for others to resolve. 

Warnings from the citadel of economic orthodoxy
https://www.ft.com/content/7c1b9427-8062-49f2-995c-b06fcad32159
Gita Gopinath, the IMF’s outgoing number two official, reflects on six tumultuous years for the global economy.

Crisis Amplifier? How to Prevent AI from Worsening the Next Economic Downturn
https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2024/05/30/sp053024-crisis-amplifier-how-to-prevent-ai-from-worsening-the-next-economic-downturn

Product Pricing Amidst Tariff Uncertainty

Six Months into Tariffs, Businesses Have No Idea How to Price Anything
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/trump-tariff-business-price-impact-37b630c8
North Carolina company says tariff uncertainty has given way to new problem: what to charge. “Everyone is struggling to figure out what to do.” 

How Trump Diminished America's Global Standing

Trump’s double humiliation as Xi embraces Modi and Putin
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/us/politics/2025/08/30/trumps-double-humiliation-xi-embraces-modi-putin/
The US-India bromance is well and truly over thanks to the president’s double dose of tariffs.

‘Navarro Is the Worst Student from Harvard’s Economics Department’: Jeffrey Sachs

 

While Trump Rattles the World, China Basks in the Limelight

https://www.wsj.com/world/while-trump-rattles-the-world-china-basks-in-the-limelight-e3de45a7
The leaders of three of the world’s four most powerful nations will meet in China this weekend to discuss how to react to the upending of the international order by the U.S. president. 

Step back and take it in: the US is entering full authoritarian mode
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/aug/29/us-authoritarian-donald-trump-national-guard
Trump’s dictator-like behavior is so brazen, so blatant, that paradoxically, we discount it. But now it’s time to call it what it is.

These Countries Have Never Trusted America. Trump Is Proving Them Right.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/opinion/trump-brazil-india-tariffs.html 

Decline and Fall of the American Empire by Paul Krugman
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/decline-and-fall-of-the-american
Alliances were what made us great.

China’s Xi rolls out the red carpet for Putin and Modi as Trump upends global relations
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/30/china/chinas-xi-rolls-out-red-carpet-for-putin-modi-as-trump-upends-global-relations
 
China gains from Trump’s alienation of India
https://www.ft.com/content/fbbef8f7-106f-40b0-8c96-555fa1af4802
America’s unpredictability risks pushing New Delhi and Beijing closer together.

Draghi on EU

Mario Draghi: “Turn skepticism into action.” 
https://www.meetingrimini.org/en/turn-skepticism-into-action-mario-draghis-speech-at-the-meeting/ 

Draghi, M (2024), Europe: Back to Domestic Growth, CEPR Policy Insight No 137, CEPR Press, Paris & London. 
https://cepr.org/publications/policy-insight-137-europe-back-domestic-growth

Foreign Policy Pragmatism

Multi-Alignment Is India’s Superpower
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-foreign-policy-agility-will-mitigate-risks-from-trump-tariffs-and-china-by-shashi-tharoor-2025-08
Donald Trump's imposition of a 50% tariff on US imports from India is a stark reminder that even the most robust partnerships are vulnerable to a populist leader's whims. Fortunately, India has long practiced an agile foreign policy, guided not by rigid alliances but by long-term interests.  

Japan, India to deepen security, economic ties amid U.S. tariffs
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/japan-india-deepen-security-economic-ties-amid-us-tariffs-2025-08-29

The State of Higher Education in America

The Elite College Myth
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/the-elite-college-myth-268c4371
Panicky parents often think their children’s success in life depends on going to a prestigious school. In reality, there are many paths to achieving great things.

The Perverse Consequences of the Easy A
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/perverse-consequences-easy-113000679.html
Without the threat of poor grades, students have largely stopped trying in their courses. Pinker told me that student performance on the multiple-choice portion of his final exam (which he has kept mostly the same) has declined by 10 percentage points over the past two decades, even as he gives out more A’s. An incoming Harvard junior, who requested anonymity to avoid affecting her future job prospects, told me that, for all the hand-wringing about student self-censorship, her peers mostly don’t read texts closely enough to form opinions in the first place. “I feel like college has become almost anti-intellectual,” Melani Cammett, a Harvard international-affairs professor, told me. “This is the place where we’re supposed to deal with big ideas, and yet students are not really engaging with them.” 

Everyone Is Cheating Their Way Through College 
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/openai-chatgpt-ai-cheating-education-college-students-school.html

When he started at Columbia as a sophomore this past September, he didn’t worry much about academics or his GPA. “Most assignments in college are not relevant,” he told me. “They’re hackable by AI, and I just had no interest in doing them.” While other new students fretted over the university’s rigorous core curriculum, described by the school as “intellectually expansive” and “personally transformative,” Lee used AI to breeze through with minimal effort. When I asked him why he had gone through so much trouble to get to an Ivy League university only to off-load all of the learning to a robot, he said, “It’s the best place to meet your co-founder and your wife.”

Related:
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst/

Will Anyone Defend Free-Market Principles?

Dictionary Definition of Craven:
lacking the least bit of courage : contemptibly fainthearted 

Chairman Trump: has the US turned its back on free-market capitalism?
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2025/aug/30/chairman-trump-us-economy
Republicans once believed governments should get out of the way. Trump is making his influence felt in every corner of the American economy.

The calculated silence of America’s business and finance leaders
https://www.ft.com/content/bd5a7374-63ae-49eb-a714-dcff03fa764b

Corporate America is silent as Trump abandons free-market principles
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/20/business/companies-trump-free-market 

Corporate America’s Newest Activist Investor: Donald Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/23/business/trump-intel-us-steel-nvidia.html
The president is demanding government stakes in U.S. companies. Experts see some similarities to state-managed capitalism in other parts of the world.

Investors grapple with Trump’s corporate America by Katie Martin
https://www.ft.com/content/cac34e31-b4b9-4a72-ac06-3d72687bee3f
It is no longer left to the invisible hand of capitalism to figure out who are the winners. 

The U.S. Marches Toward State Capitalism with American Characteristics
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-u-s-marches-toward-state-capitalism-with-american-characteristics-f75cafa8
President Trump is imitating Chinese Communist Party by extending political control ever deeper into economy.

Trump’s strongman capitalism risks killing American enterprise
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/17/trumps-strongman-capitalism-will-kill-american-enterprise/
The US president’s interference in business runs against his country’s great traditions.

Social Safety Net in China

China Is Trying to Expand Its Social Safety Net. Yet Many Chinese Are Worried.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/29/world/asia/china-social-security.html
A move to force employers to pay into benefits for their employees has left people worrying that small businesses will close and jobs will be lost. 

A Consequential Policy Move

Trump administration moves to tighten duration of visas for students and media
https://www.reuters.com/business/media-telecom/trump-administration-moves-tighten-duration-visas-students-media-2025-08-27 

Inflation Spike Ahead?

Higher Prices Are Coming for Household Staples
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/trump-tariffs-higher-prices-forecast-5233d6c4
Companies from Hormel to Ace Hardware are forecasting rising prices as the costs of President Trump’s tariffs are passed on to consumers.
 
A Tariff Loophole on Cheap Imports Has Closed. How Will It Affect Shoppers?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/29/business/trump-tariffs-de-minimis.html
The end of the “de minimis” exemption — which allowed packages less than $800 to enter the U.S. tariff-free — is leading to confusion. 

The Case for Investing in Non-US Assets

US markets present a double concentration risk
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/us-markets-present-double-concentration-risk-2025-08-28

How to manage US asset dominance in portfolios
https://www.ft.com/content/ff89a6da-6b19-4aa3-bf94-c71c2faa5139
Christian Mueller-Glissmann (Head of asset allocation research at Goldman Sachs):
Investors should become more flexible beyond equity and bond benchmarks and more creative with parts of their portfolios. Diversifying into areas such as China tech stocks, for example, might reduce disruption risks for large cap US tech companies. Likewise allocations to gold and emerging markets assets, which are negatively correlated with the dollar, can help diversify risk of a continued weaker trend for the US currency. More generally, investors need to consider whether large weightings in US assets remain a good default position for their portfolios.
 
How to invest in global stocks — and not rely on US-heavy indices
https://www.ft.com/content/53f6b384-b9d1-4ed8-91b7-afb72f5729e3
It’s hard to diversify when American stocks comprise more than 72 per cent of the MSCI World index. 

Trump’s Economic Policy Is More Radical Than You Think
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/27/trump-economic-policy-state-capitalism-tariffs-federal-reserve/
So why aren’t the president’s latest economic moves generating more alarm?

Trump’s Fed meddling pushes investors closer to their red line
https://www.ft.com/content/5e614112-e51a-414f-9030-9876235a1b28
There may be more stress than is apparent, particularly on long-term debt.

India’s Geopolitical Challenges

A defining test looms for India
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/08/28/a-defining-test-looms-for-india
It is rethinking its relationship with America. The ramifications will be huge.
 
Will a harsher world accelerate India’s reforms?
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/08/28/will-a-harsher-world-accelerate-indias-reforms
Narendra Modi needs a new approach after Donald Trump’s tariffs.
 
Narendra Modi’s secret weapon: the Indian consumer
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/08/28/narendra-modis-secret-weapon-the-indian-consumer
Low inflation, tax cuts and falling interest rates will boost an economy hit by tariffs. 

Valuing NVIDIA

Nvidia’s exuberant valuation is a tomorrow problem
https://www.ft.com/content/d5fbf8e0-4be2-4f88-a8f6-b285f677a721
Crude measures do not capture what happens in the more distant future, which matters greatly to the company’s worth. 

Even Nvidia Has Speed Limits
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/even-nvidia-has-speed-limits-fc801b89
Strong AI chip sales came up a bit short for the market’s only $4 trillion company.

Alibaba Creates AI Chip to Help China Fill Nvidia Void
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/alibaba-ai-chip-nvidia-f5dc96e3
Chinese chip companies and artificial-intelligence developers are building up their arsenal of homegrown technology, backed by a government determined to win the AI race.
 
How A Power Shortage Could Short-Circuit Nvidia’s Rise
https://www.economist.com/business/2025/08/28/how-a-power-shortage-could-short-circuit-nvidias-rise

Picking the winners from the AI boom is easier said than done
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/29/picking-winners-from-ai-boom-is-easier-said-than-done/
Invest in ‘inevitables’ – the products and services where the odds are stacked in your favor.

Japan Still Matters

The bullish signs from Japan’s bear panic
https://www.ft.com/content/edfd2360-4635-4c3a-a6b2-e271ca9e812b
Even as it faces national dotage, the country remains a formidable industrial power. 

Trump's Fossil Fuel Agenda

Trump, With Tariffs and Threats, Tries to Strong-Arm Nations to Retreat on Climate Goals
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/climate/trump-international-pressure-climate-oil.html
The president has made no secret of his distaste for wind and solar in America. Now he’s taking his fossil fuel agenda overseas. 

Trump Cedes the Clean Energy Lead to China
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/29/trump-china-clean-energy-transition-renewables-fossil-fuels-wind-farm/
As Washington turns its back on wind and solar, Beijing is racing ahead.

Data Center Boom and the US Economy

The A.I. Spending Frenzy Is Propping Up the Real Economy, Too
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/business/economy/ai-investment-economic-growth.html
The trillions of dollars that tech companies are pouring into new data centers are starting to show up in economic growth. For now, at least. 

Surging US electricity prices put Trump pledge in jeopardy
https://www.ft.com/content/689243af-865f-4330-a9bb-ce7a9a114f40
Power demand is booming as generation costs are rising.

Mass Migration and the Populist Backlash

The U.K. Tried to Clamp Down on Migration—and Wound Up with an Unprecedented Wave
https://www.wsj.com/world/uk/britain-farage-migration-debacle-245baf3e
Britain’s post-Brexit visa program, meant to attract lower numbers of skilled workers, soon backfired. The debacle drew populist Nigel Farage back into politics.

Mass migration won’t solve Britain’s economic woes
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/27/mass-migration-is-no-solution-to-britains-economic-woes/
Central banking elites are out of touch with the political realities of our age. 

How the soft-touch EU turned harder on migration than Brexit Britain
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/08/25/soft-touch-eu-harder-on-migration-than-brexit
Where once European leaders derided plans such as the proposed Rwanda scheme, the bloc now appears to be pivoting to a similar approach.

Fed Independence Under Threat

Trump can bully the Fed but he can’t bully the bond markets
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/26/trump-can-bully-the-fed-but-he-cant-bully-bond-markets/
The belligerent president has trashed America’s monetary credibility. He may live to regret it.

Trump’s interest-rate crusade will be self-defeating

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/08/28/trumps-interest-rate-crusade-will-be-self-defeating
New research shows the importance of central-bank credibility.

Get Ready for the End of Fed Independence
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/get-ready-for-the-end-of-fed-independence-5a52a824
Markets haven’t yet grappled with the implications of the president having control over the central bank.
 
Trump’s Fed Aggression Poses New Legal Test of Presidential Power
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/trumps-fed-aggression-poses-new-test-on-limits-of-presidential-power-19085baf
The move to fire Lisa Cook comes after the Supreme Court signaled its intention to protect the central bank’s independence.

The Fate of the Fed May Turn on Two Words: ‘For Cause’
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/us/politics/supreme-court-fed-trump.html
The Supreme Court has said the Federal Reserve Board’s independence warrants protection. President Trump’s effort to fire a member will test that commitment.

 
Seeking to Control the Fed, Trump Risks Upending a Pillar of the Global Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/us/politics/trump-fed-lisa-cook.html
President Trump’s attempt to fire Lisa Cook, a Fed governor, will set off a long legal battle. Economists warn it could lead to higher inflation and government borrowing costs.
 
Trump’s Appointees Could Rule the Federal Reserve for Decades
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/08/26/us/politics/trump-fed-appointees.html
If President Trump succeeds in replacing Lisa Cook, his nominees will make up a majority of the central bank’s seven-person board.
 
Related:
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/uncharted-waters-trumps-attempt-to-take-charge-of-the-fed-a2548461 

Do Americans Prefer a Dictatorship?

TRUMP: ‘A LOT OF PEOPLE ARE SAYING MAYBE WE’D LIKE A DICTATOR’
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/trump-says-americans-want-dictator-1235414824/
The president claims he doesn’t actually want to be a dictator, but the past seven months tell a different story. 

Trump says many people might want a dictator. Yes, many of his people.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/25/politics/dictator-trump-supporters-analysis 

In Trump’s Second Term, a Bolder President Charges Ahead Unchecked
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/in-trumps-second-term-a-bolder-president-charges-ahead-unchecked-1c8c5b79
Trump is frequently riffing on authoritarianism and is ignoring caution from his advisers.

Step back and take it in: the US is entering full authoritarian mode
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2025/aug/29/us-authoritarian-donald-trump-national-guard
Trump’s dictator-like behavior is so brazen, so blatant, that paradoxically, we discount it. But now it’s time to call it what it is.

Europe's Economic Woes Mount

German Consumers Feel Ever Gloomier as Economy Slumps
https://www.wsj.com/economy/consumers/german-consumers-feel-ever-gloomier-as-economy-slumps-895c2828
Concerns around unemployment drove the cautious mood among German shoppers.

A Politician Speaks the Unspeakable
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/friedrich-merz-germany-welfare-spending-europe-39d01121
Germany’s Friedrich Merz says the current welfare state isn’t affordable. 
 
Fears of a French Government Collapse Send Its Borrowing Costs Soaring
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/business/france-government-collapse-economy.html
France, a cornerstone economy in Europe, is rapidly becoming one of its weakest links as a political and debt crisis loom.
 
Europe Is Spending Big on Defense. Will That Help Its Ailing Economy?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/27/business/economy/europe-defense-spending.html 

Job Hoppers versus Job Huggers

You won't get more money from quitting in this economy, BofA says, as job-hopping freezes in white-collar America
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/job-huggers-sense-trouble-brewing-210940548.html
The job-hopper and the job-hugger: Two distinct species, with one going into hibernation as the other emerges. Bank of America’s latest research shows that the era of the job-hopper—once the defining labor market species during the pandemic’s Great Resignation—is quickly vanishing. The job-hopper’s day was 2022, BofA finds, and even though it doesn’t use the phrase, the report constitutes additional evidence that 2025 is the heyday of the “job-hugger.” 

The Next Global Economic Crisis?

Will Washington’s Debt Addiction Spark the Next Global Crisis? By Ken Rogoff
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/americas-coming-crash-rogoff
 
Trump's latest Fed jab breeds more dismay than drama
https://www.reuters.com/business/trumps-latest-fed-jab-breeds-more-dismay-than-drama-2025-08-26
Trump's gradual ratcheting up of his campaign to exert more influence over the path of monetary policy has already knocked confidence in U.S. sovereign debt as a safe investment, and in the exceptional advantage the dollar enjoyed as a currency of choice.
That advantage had allowed the U.S. to fund a massive national debt that currently stands at $36 trillion, and owe international investors some $26 trillion at the end of 2024.
Foreign money has been leaving U.S. markets since Trump took over as president. Global ex-U.S. equity funds have received massive flows as investors redirected capital from the United States, LSEG Lipper data shows. Investors have sold U.S.-focused funds steadily since May. 

AI and Job Prospects for Young Workers

The Job Market Is Hell
https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/job-market-hell-115900392.html
Young people are using ChatGPT to write their applications; HR is using AI to read them; no one is getting hired. 

America's job market is cooling, and the youngest workers are feeling it most
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americas-job-market-is-cooling-and-the-youngest-workers-are-feeling-it-most-120003303.html/
Sluggish hiring doesn't get quite as much attention as a layoff, but it has a very broad-based impact," Daniel Zhao, Glassdoor chief economist, told Yahoo Finance on Wednesday. "It means folks can't get onto the career ladder in the first place, and it also means that workers who are employed can’t make progress up the career ladder."
Concerns about artificial intelligence replacing entry-level jobs are also playing a role.
That risk was underscored by a recent New York Fed survey, which found that 12% of service firms already using AI reported hiring fewer workers in the past six months, while nearly a quarter of firms planning to adopt AI expect to scale back hiring in the months ahead. 

There Is Now Clearer Evidence AI Is Wrecking Young Americans’ Job Prospects
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/ai-entry-level-job-impact-5c687c84
Young workers face rising AI competition in fields like software development, but some also benefit from AI as a helper, new research shows. 

A Primer on “Canaries in the Coal Mine? Six Facts About the Recent Employment Effects of Artificial Intelligence”
https://bharatchandar.substack.com/p/a-primer-on-canaries-in-the-coal
Breaking down how AI is shaping the labor market.

150 job applications, rescinded offers: Computer science grads are struggling to find work
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/28/tech/computer-science-graduates-job-hunt-ai

Thanks to the AI data center boom, it’s a good time to be an electrician
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/thanks-to-the-ai-data-center-boom-its-a-good-time-to-be-an-electrician-133026522.html
The US needs more electricians to service data centers. Unions say the workers can make a great living.

'AI can’t install an HVAC system': Why Gen Z is flocking to jobs in the trades
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ai-cant-install-an-hvac-system-why-gen-z-is-flocking-to-jobs-in-the-trades-171735856.html
Enrollment at trade schools is expected to grow 6.6% a year for programs like HVAC and welding.

These AI-Skilled 20-Somethings Are Making Hundreds of Thousands a Year
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-jobs-entry-level-salary-ab2a11c0
 
AI and the Job Market
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2025/08/shifts-in-labor-market-conditions.html
 
College Degrees - No Longer a Risk-Free Investment
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2025/06/college-degrees-no-longer-risk-free.html
 
AI-Proofing Your Career Starts in College

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-04-07/ai-proofing-your-career-starts-in-college (Paywall)
https://www.tbsnews.net/bloomberg-special/ai-proofing-your-career-starts-college-615030 (Free Access)

Allison Schrager (Manhattan Institute; Bloomberg Columnist) notes:
American universities and colleges were originally intended to be liberal arts institutions that aimed to make well-rounded, thoughtful leaders. In contrast to the European model where students specialize early, American students were meant to get a more cursory exposure to many different fields.
This was reasonable when a small share of the population went to college and it wasn’t too expensive. But as more people pursued higher education and costs rose, the expectation changed. Students wanted a more vocational and career-focused education and were less interested in reading Plato. Meanwhile, colleges and universities stopped doing either job well. Many students struggle to apply their degree to the job market, and the education they get has become less rigorous. One study found little improvement in critical-thinking skills during the first few years among 45% of students… 
 
The A.I. Economy Makes Our Humanity More Important Than Ever
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/14/opinion/ai-economy-jobs-colleges.html

AI Boom, Entry-Level Bust: Why College Grads Are Struggling to Land Jobs

Auto Supply Chains

The Backbone of the Global Auto Supply Chain Is at Risk from Trump’s Tariffs
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/26/business/trump-tariffs-auto-suppliers.html
They are threatening smaller parts companies that are key to manufacturing and employ hundreds of thousands in Japan, South Korea and Germany. 

Cars Are So Expensive That Buyers Need Seven-Year Loans
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/cars-are-so-expensive-that-buyers-need-seven-year-loans-83806.html

Ireland's Unbalanced Economy

Trump has spared Ireland’s drug giants. But the country faces a new threat
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/26/ireland-grapples-overheating-economy-trump-threat-recedes/
Relief from looming tariffs has only highlighted vulnerabilities at the heart of the Irish economy. 

Boomers are Loaded

Why Boomers Have More Money Than Everyone Else
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-25/wealth-gap-why-do-boomers-have-more-money-than-gen-x
New research shows a large and growing divergence in net worth between Americans over age 75 and those under 35. 

How Much Tax Do US Billionaires Really Pay?

How the Richest People in America Avoid Paying Taxes
https://www.theatlantic.com/economy/archive/2025/08/billionaire-tax-study/683987/
According to the Joint Committee on Taxation, the richest of rich Americans pay an average tax rate of 34 percent, higher than any other cohort’s. In reality, as everyone has long known, they pay less than that. A new study by some of the country’s most preeminent economists has finally put concrete numbers to the disparity. The average rate that the richest Americans pay, they find, sits at just 24 percent. That number has fallen markedly in recent years and will remain low for the foreseeable future, thanks to Donald Trump.
 
How Much Tax Do US Billionaires Pay? Evidence from Administrative Data
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34170
Akcan S. Balkir, Emmanuel Saez, Danny Yagan, and Gabriel Zucman
NBER Working Paper No. 34170, August 2025.

Bitcoin Treasury Companies

Why bitcoin treasury companies are a fool’s paradise
https://www.ft.com/content/478ea5bc-ea18-44f7-9da1-602ebe283fca
In a crypto winter, the consequences could be painful for investors. 

History Lesson: New Technologies and Asset Bubbles

The A.I.-Profits Drought and the Lessons of History
https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-financial-page/the-ai-profits-drought-and-the-lessons-of-history
Like the steam engine, electricity, and computers, generative artificial intelligence could take longer than expected to transform the economy.

We may be facing the dotcom bubble 2.0
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/21/we-may-be-facing-dotcom-bubble-2

Credit Fuels the AI Boom — and Fears of a Bubble
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-23/credit-fuels-the-ai-boom-and-fears-of-a-bubble-credit-weekly
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-fuels-ai-boom-fears-153316716.html/ (Ungated)

‘It’s almost tragic’: Bubble or not, the AI backlash is validating what one researcher and critic has been saying for years

https://fortune.com/2025/08/24/is-ai-a-bubble-market-crash-gary-marcus-openai-gpt5

Safety Nets and Public Support for International Trade

The Real Reason Americans Worry About Trade
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/business/tariffs-layoffs-safety-net.html
Behind the pushback to global trade is a deep economic anxiety that a meager social safety net has caused in the U.S.
 
Workers Who Lost Jobs to Trade Needed Help. Washington Cut the Funding.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/25/business/trade-layoffs-job-assistance.html
Trade Adjustment Assistance was supposed to help people whose jobs were threatened by overseas competition, but Congress eroded its support starting in the 1980s. 

Economic Performance Under Populism

Beware populist economics
https://www.ft.com/content/727d4bbc-7966-4ae9-b890-ac0883069ef8
History suggests the political approach ends in unsustainable debt and lower GDP.
 
Fear the deficit-populism doom loop
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/08/24/fear-the-deficit-populism-doom-loop
Politicians, particularly in Europe, are in a terrible bind.

Funke, Manuel, Moritz Schularick, and Christoph Trebesch. 2023. "Populist Leaders and the Economy." American Economic Review 113 (12): 3249–88.
https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/pdf/doi/10.1257/aer.20202045
Abstract
Populism at the country level is at an all-time high, with more than 25 percent of nations currently governed by populists. How do economies perform under populist leaders? We build a new long-run cross-country database to study the macroeconomic history of populism. We identify 51 populist presidents and prime ministers from 1900 to 2020 and show that the economic cost of populism is high. After 15 years, GDP per capita is 10 percent lower compared to a plausible nonpopulist counterfactual. Economic disintegration, decreasing macroeconomic stability, and the erosion of institutions typically go hand in hand with populist rule.

A Stagnant Labor Market

Stagnant Job Market Is a Rising Risk for the U.S. Economy
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/rising-risk-for-the-u-s-economy-a-job-market-that-is-just-meh-ca37eac1
Employers are holding on to workers but have slowed hiring to a crawl, creating a fragile labor market. 

US jobs market facing ‘Trump slump’ as tariffs bite
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/25/us-facing-trump-slump-as-tariffs-bite-warn-economists/  
 
A Historic Immigration Drop Is Changing the Job Market
https://www.wsj.com/economy/immigration-workers-labor-market-b277548f
Demand for workers cooled yet the unemployment rate held steady—and why? The labor supply slowed abruptly alongside a sharp decline in immigration.

A third of the U.S. economy is already in a recession or at high risk, and another third is stagnating, Zandi warns
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/third-u-economy-already-recession-070200026.html

Fastest Scheduled Rail Services

Ranked: The 10 countries with the fastest trains
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/travel/advice/countries-with-the-fastest-trains/ 

From Shrinkflation to Sneakflation

‘Sneakflation’: How Trump’s tariffs are gradually raising costs for American consumers
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/24/economy/us-tariffs-passthrough-consumers 

The Less-Mighty Central Bankers

The era of the all-mighty central banker is well and truly over
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/23/era-all-mighty-central-banker-is-well-and-truly-over/
Repeated failures have found the lords of monetary policy a much-weakened power.

The twilight of the central banking elite
https://www.ft.com/content/3b5a3fde-6110-4e40-88b1-04f71ed5b0f1 

We are perilously close to another inflation shock
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/08/23/how-price-stability-lost-out-to-fiscal-dominance/
Central banks are under siege from their political masters. The consequences could be severe.

Tariffs and Access to Medicine

Where Your Medicines Are Made
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/23/health/prescription-drugs-manufacturing-tariffs.html
President Trump’s planned pharmaceutical tariffs threaten to hit many of the most common and well-known drugs that Americans take. 

Does Europe Still Matter?

Europe Is Losing
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-is-losing-fe179376
European nations have fallen far behind in economic dynamism and military clout. Will the continent that once ruled the world become a bystander to history? 

Europe is selling its soul to Trump
https://www.ft.com/content/75609ba4-cc61-4556-8ca2-09381da721e9
Martin Sandbu:
Three specific claims can be discerned. First, since talk is cheap, why not flatter Trump? Second, what’s been achieved is better than the alternatives (kneecapping Ukraine’s defence and outright trade war). With luck, EU companies may even benefit from the still-higher tariffs put on much non-European trade. And third, policymakers will admit sotto voce that many of Europe’s pledges to Trump are just for show. Pledges of 5 per cent defence spending and huge investment and purchasing sprees in the US aren’t realistic or intended to be kept but dumb Trump bought them, so well done us.
That this stance is unprincipled is incontestable; a principled response would be to fight back. The bigger problem is that it fails proponents’ own test of pragmatism. True pragmatism would be to reduce exposure to a hostile US. What advocates call pragmatism is in fact opportunism — which is not only unsavoury but is also causing real damage, not least to Europe’s own politics.

Jerome Powell's Take on the State of the US Economy

Powell’s Take: Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdf
This year, the economy has faced new challenges. Significantly higher tariffs across our trading partners are remaking the global trading system. Tighter immigration policy has led to an abrupt slowdown in labor force growth. Over the longer run, changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies may also have important implications for economic growth and productivity. There is significant uncertainty about where all of these polices will eventually settle and what their lasting effects on the economy will be.
Changes in trade and immigration policies are affecting both demand and supply. In this environment, distinguishing cyclical developments from trend, or structural, developments is difficult. This distinction is critical because monetary policy can work to stabilize cyclical fluctuations but can do little to alter structural changes.

Related:

Powell’s Nuance Was Lost on Markets. Too Bad.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-22/powell-s-nuance-at-jackson-hole-was-lost-on-markets
The Federal Reserve chair used his Jackson Hole speech to describe a foggy economic landscape and two-sided risks. Was anyone even listening?

Powell’s Rate Cut Signal Reflects Economy’s Delicate Position
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/powells-rate-cut-signal-reflects-economys-delicate-position-37d8fb63
Fed chair’s measured approach leans toward cautious easing amid ‘curious’ labor market, despite inflation perils.

Powell Is on the Cusp of Taking a Big Gamble with the U.S. Economy 
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/business/jerome-powell-fed-jackson-hole.html 

President Trump’s efforts to control the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics are among a series of moves that pose a larger threat, economists warn.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/business/trump-federal-reserve-bls.html

How Long Can This Uncanny Stock Market Prosper?
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/business/stock-market-nvidia-trump.html 

The Failure of Fed’s FAIT Framework
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2025/08/the-failure-of-feds-fait-framework.html

China, US, and the Future Global Economic Order

The New Economic Geography by ADAM POSEN (President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics)
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/new-economic-geography-posen
Who Profits in a Post-American World? 

The Weaponized World Economy
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/weaponized-world-economy-farrell-newman
Surviving the New Age of Economic Coercion.
 
China Is Enjoying Trump 2.0
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-enjoying-trump-20
How the Trade War Is Helping Beijing Prepare for Long-Term Competition.
 
The Real China Model
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/real-china-model-wang-kroeber
Beijing’s Enduring Formula for Wealth and Power. 

A Long-Term Threat to the US Economy

Trump’s Attacks on Institutions Threaten a Bulwark of Economic Strength
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/business/trump-federal-reserve-bls.html
President Trump’s efforts to control the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics are among a series of moves that pose a larger threat, economists warn. 

The AI Vibe Shift

The AI vibe shift is upon us
https://www.cnn.com/2025/08/22/business/ai-vibe-shift-nightcap 

An MIT report that 95% of AI pilots fail spooked investors. But it’s the reason why those pilots failed that should make the C-suite anxious
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mit-report-95-ai-pilots-165754716.html

Credit Fuels the AI Boom — and Fears of a Bubble
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-23/credit-fuels-the-ai-boom-and-fears-of-a-bubble-credit-weekly
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/credit-fuels-ai-boom-fears-153316716.html/ (Ungated)
 
Tech stocks are sending a warning
https://www.ft.com/content/c44c32cd-da47-4ba6-a67a-30c0059931bb
Sell-off provides a reminder of the risks of the sector’s dominance in public and private markets.

Related:

A Better Way to Think About AI
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2025/08/ai-job-loss-human-enhancement-google/683963/

Disagreement Among Economists

Economists disagree about everything. Don’t they?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/08/21/economists-disagree-about-everything-dont-they
Their discipline is famous for its fissiparousness. 

On Globalization

Was globalization ever a meritocracy?
https://www.economist.com/international/2025/08/19/was-globalisation-ever-a-meritocracy
The Trumpian assault on globalism, as seen from Singapore. 

Decarbonization Battle - China versus USA

The Coming Ecological Cold War: Decarbonization isn’t just about technology and markets—it’s a geopolitical revolution.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/01/ecological-cold-war-climate-china-europe-usa-russia
 
Like Reagan, Trump is slashing environment regulations, but his strategy may have a far deeper impact
https://theconversation.com/like-reagan-trump-is-slashing-environment-regulations-but-his-strategy-may-have-a-far-deeper-impact-262929

Trump Cedes the Clean Energy Lead to China
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/29/trump-china-clean-energy-transition-renewables-fossil-fuels-wind-farm/
As Washington turns its back on wind and solar, Beijing is racing ahead.

China’s Decarbonization Is So Fast Even New Coal Plants Aren’t Stopping It
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/21/china-clean-renewable-energy-coal-plants-emissions/
Advances in clean energy are compensating for new construction.
 
Trump’s Global War on Decarbonization
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-global-war-on-decarbonization-green-technologies-by-mark-blyth-and-daniel-driscoll-2025-08
The Trump administration is doing everything it can to ensure that fossil fuels remain dominant in the energy mix of the twenty-first century. If it succeeds, the short-term returns to the US will be huge; but the long-term damage to the planet will be orders of magnitude larger. 

Financial Trading – Complex versus Simple Models

In praise of complicated investing strategies
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/08/18/in-praise-of-complicated-investing-strategies
To understand markets, forget Occam’s razor.

AQR's 'Hard to Believe' Study Spurs Clash Over AI Use for Quants
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-08-20/aqr-s-hard-to-believe-study-spurs-clash-over-ai-use-for-quants
Ungated version:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/aqr-s--hard-to-believe--study-spurs-clash-over-ai-use-for-quants-83735.html
 
The Virtue of Complexity in Return Prediction
https://doi.org/10.1111/jofi.13298
ABSTRACT
Much of the extant literature predicts market returns with “simple” models that use only a few parameters. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we theoretically prove that simple models severely understate return predictability compared to “complex” models in which the number of parameters exceeds the number of observations. We empirically document the virtue of complexity in U.S. equity market return prediction. Our findings establish the rationale for modeling expected returns through machine learning. 

Germany’s Economic Challenges

Can Germany’s Merz Revive the Economy? Voters Are Running Out of Patience
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/can-germanys-merz-revive-the-economy-voters-are-running-out-of-patience-651902fc
A torrent of bad economic news is pushing the German chancellor to focus on the home front this autumn.
 
Germany falls back into ‘recessionary territory’ as second-quarter GDP revised down
https://www.ft.com/content/a4d2660f-311f-4281-895c-c95274234a7f
Europe’s largest economy contracted 0.3% as exports and investment dropped. 

The Failure of Fed’s FAIT Framework

In 2020, the Fed introduced a new framework – the Flexible Average Inflation Targeting (FAIT) framework. It is now largely considered to be a flop:

Powell Flips the Fed’s ‘Framework’
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/jerome-powell-federal-reserve-framework-inflation-targeting-26deedb0
The central bank abandons its 2020 idea that inflation above its target can be useful.

Powell Plans U-Turn on an Economic Strategy That Soured by Nick Timiraos
The Fed unveiled a strategy five years ago for worries that the economy outgrew. Now, it will formally reset.
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-jerome-powell-strategy-change-6fab8188

Fed Officials Erase Old Policy That Tolerated Higher Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-officials-erase-old-policy-that-tolerated-higher-inflation-7636e3ee
The central bank retired a previous strategy and on Friday unveiled a new approach that updates how inflation and employment are balanced. 


As far back as September 2020, I argued that adoption of the FAIT framework was a mistake:
Will the Fed’s recasting of its monetary policy strategy help the US economy? BY Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 09/01/20
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/514624-will-the-feds-recasting-of-its-monetary-policy-strategy-help-the-us-economy/
 
In Feb 2021, I again critiqued Fed actions during the pandemic era:
Have misguided policies led to recent asset bubbles and boom-bust cycles?
BY Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 02/16/21
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/538921-have-misguided-policies-led-to-recent-asset-bubbles-and-boom-bust-cycles/
An added risk in the current cycle is that surging asset prices combined with unprecedented fiscal and monetary largesse may finally cause inflation to emerge from its long dormancy. Standard inflation measures often fail to properly account for early signs of pricing pressures. By having overcommitted to its easy policy stance, the Federal Reserve will find it hard to change direction in the future without creating significant financial market upheaval. 

Growing Popularity of Women's Professional Sports in India

Women in Indian Sports Sweat for Their Share of a Booming Market
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/world/asia/india-sports-women-female-athletes.html
Female athletes are using social media to increase viewership and seek better sponsorship deals in a field long dominated by men. 

The Stunning Elegance of Smriti Mandhana (Indian Cricket Star):

Smriti Mandhana Hits 112 Runs off 62 Balls | England v India

https://youtu.be/TxXwlMfmNQc