Attention Economy


Wednesday, January 31, 2024

UK Universities Have Become Over Reliant on International Students

Are international students taking over UK universities? No – in fact, they’re propping them up
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/31/international-students-uk-universities-money-cuts 

Related:
Chinese Students Abroad Struggle with Tuition as Economy Falters
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-30/chinese-students-abroad-struggle-with-tuition-as-economy-falters
Young people who can no longer rely on their parents are picking up whatever jobs they can to finish their degrees overseas.

A Tricky Moment for the Fed

The Fed Is Taking It Slow. But the Markets Want More.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/01/business/interest-rates-federal-reserve-stocks-bonds.html
Vague comments about possible future rate cuts were all that central bankers gave the markets. Patience will be difficult at this tricky moment, our columnist says.
 
Powell Navigates ‘Toxic’ Politics of Rate Cuts as Election Nears
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-cuts-election-2024-843cc25a
 
What’s the Right Interest Rate for the Fed Anyway?
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/whats-the-right-interest-rate-for-the-fed-anyway-b648fc4e
Standard models watched by economists at the Federal Reserve and elsewhere suggest that rates should now be lower

FOMC STATEMENT (I have highlighted the section worth emphasizing):

https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20240131a.htm

Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has been expanding at a solid pace. Job gains have moderated since early last year but remain strong, and the unemployment rate has remained low. Inflation has eased over the past year but remains elevated.
The Committee seeks to achieve maximum employment and inflation at the rate of 2 percent over the longer run. The Committee judges that the risks to achieving its employment and inflation goals are moving into better balance. The economic outlook is uncertain, and the Committee remains highly attentive to inflation risks.
In support of its goals, the Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 to 5-1/2 percent. In considering any adjustments to the target range for the federal funds rate, the Committee will carefully assess incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks. The Committee does not expect it will be appropriate to reduce the target range until it has gained greater confidence that inflation is moving sustainably toward 2 percent. In addition, the Committee will continue reducing its holdings of Treasury securities and agency debt and agency mortgage-backed securities, as described in its previously announced plans. The Committee is strongly committed to returning inflation to its 2 percent objective.
In assessing the appropriate stance of monetary policy, the Committee will continue to monitor the implications of incoming information for the economic outlook. The Committee would be prepared to adjust the stance of monetary policy as appropriate if risks emerge that could impede the attainment of the Committee's goals. The Committee's assessments will take into account a wide range of information, including readings on labor market conditions, inflation pressures and inflation expectations, and financial and international developments.

Data Revisions and Monetary Policymaking

The Fed is fed up with data revisions – Jan 31, 2024
https://www.cnn.com/2024/01/31/economy/data-revisions-fed-rate-changes/index.html
Federal Reserve officials have said countless times they take a “data-dependent approach” to their policy decisions, including their current conundrum of when to slash interest rates. But what if the data isn’t as dependable as it once was?
That’s what appears to be happening — and it’s making central bankers’ jobs a lot harder.
“We have to make decisions in real time,” Fed Governor Christopher Waller said late last year. “Whatever data is released, that’s the data I have to use. The problem with data is it gets revised.”
That wouldn’t necessarily be so much of an issue if the revisions, which can come months after initial reports are released, were relatively small. However, many revisions over the past few years have been game-changers.
 
My take from September 7, 2023:
‘Overly data-dependent’ — how the Fed and the markets keep getting it wrong
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/4189467-overly-data-dependent-how-the-fed-and-the-markets-keep-getting-it-wrong/
Central bankers and markets should be aware of the risks associated with an overly data-dependent approach to monetary policymaking. In 2019, Powell himself highlighted the basic challenge: “We must sort out in real time, as best we can, what the profound changes underway in the economy mean for issues such as the functioning of labor markets, the pace of productivity growth, and the forces driving inflation.”
Yet economic data are often unreliable. Official statistics undergo multiple and often substantial revisions. For instance, consider the widely watched non-farm payroll numbers. Initial estimates of monthly job gains/losses are widely reported by the media, and financial markets and the Fed often react sharply to this major data point. 
Less widely-appreciated is that the payroll numbers undergo subsequent revisions —sometimes large ones that give the lie to the initial perceptions. Annual benchmark revision of 2022 data, for instance, indicated more robust employment figures than previously reported. In contrast, this year’s early rounds of revisions have consistently been downward.
GDP data also undergo multiple revisions, which makes it hard to quickly ascertain overall macroeconomic conditions. For instance, the Bureau of Economic Analysis will soon release an annual comprehensive update of national accounts, revising GDP data going all the way back to 2013. Furthermore, when estimates of aggregate economic activity provided by GDP and GDI diverge sharply, it introduces an additional layer of uncertainty. 

From the BLS:


Europe Faces Challenges on Multiple Fronts

The rotten state: How corruption and chumocracy are pulling Britain apart.
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/uk-politics/2024/01/the-rotten-state
 
French farmers close in on Paris as government struggles to calm protests
https://www.france24.com/en/france/20240131-french-farmers-maintain-siege-of-paris-as-govt-struggles-to-calm-protests
 
Anna Sauerbrey notes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/31/opinion/germany-protests-far-right.html
German democracy is not well. The problem is not just the rise of the AfD, which has become strong enough in some regions to aspire to positions of power or at least to seriously disrupt the process of forming stable governments. It’s that in many parts of the country, a general sense of discontent has tipped over into disdain. People now reject not just the current government but the whole political system.
Since the beginning of the pandemic, this feeling has built up in Germany. And it is true that Germans have had to deal with a lot: the war in Ukraine, an energy crisis, inflation and, most recently, the painful fallout from war in Gaza. Even though immigration is rising, we still lack skilled labor — teachers, plumbers, I.T. specialists — and public infrastructure is crumbling. Add in an ambitious government green transition agenda hamstrung by brutal infighting and you get a grim picture. Everything, it seems, is changing — and not for the better.
 
Europe Regulates Its Way to Last Place
https://www.wsj.com/economy/europe-regulates-its-way-to-last-place-2a03c21d 

Tuesday, January 30, 2024

Welfare Schemes and Votes - Indian Democracy

When Does Welfare Win Votes in India?
https://carnegieendowment.org/2024/01/25/when-does-welfare-win-votes-in-india-pub-91449
As India’s political parties scramble to build their platforms for the 2024 general elections, new research illuminates how and when welfare schemes win over Indian voters.
India has experienced at least three interrelated transformations in the functioning of the welfare state: less discretion in the selection of beneficiaries, the direct transfer of benefits, and a proliferation of benefits. 

IMF World Economic Outlook – Jan 2024 Update

The risks to global growth are broadly balanced and a soft landing is a possibility
https://www.imf.org/-/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2024/Update/January/English/text.ashx 

Monday, January 29, 2024

The Economic Benefits of a Double Major

Do Double Majors Face Less Risk? An Analysis of Human Capital Diversification
https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w32095/w32095.pdf
Abstract
We study how human capital diversification, in the form of double majoring, affects the response of earnings to labor market shocks. Double majors experience substantial protection against earnings shocks, of 56%. This finding holds across different model specifications and data sets. Furthermore, the protection double majors experience is more pronounced when the two majors are more distantly related, highlighting the importance of diverse skill sets. Additional analyses demonstrate that double majors are more likely to work in jobs that require a diverse set of skills and knowledge and are less likely to work in occupations that are closely related to their majors. 

Fed's Dilemma - When to Initiate Rate Cuts

Why Cut Rates in an Economy This Strong? A Big Question Confronts the Fed.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/30/business/economy/fed-interest-rates.html
 
A Little Dual Easing Soon Could Help the Fed Avoid Major Easing Later
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/fed-interest-rate-easing-timing-4ec5768d



Fed rate cuts? A strong US economy makes for a fraught decision
https://www.ft.com/content/ccf0862c-2615-4b28-a407-7ef899536e5b

2024 FOMC Meetings
January 30-31
March 19-20
Apr/May 30-1
June 11-12
July 30-31
September 17-18
November 6-7
December 17-18

Walmart Store Managers Get a Better Deal

Walmart Offers Store Managers Company Stock to Make Them Feel Like ‘Owners’
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/29/business/walmart-store-managers-stock.html
 
The $400,000 Job That Doesn’t Require a College Degree
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/the-400-000-retail-job-without-a-college-degree-2dd75e39
Walmart is giving store managers higher bonuses, stock grants as the job becomes more difficult in the e-commerce era 

The Rise and Fall of Evergrande

Evergrande Will Be Dismantled, a ‘Big Bang’ End to Years of Stumbles
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/28/business/china-evergrande.html
After multiple delays and even a few faint glimmers of hope, a Hong Kong court has sounded the death knell for what was once China’s biggest real estate firm.
 
Chinese developer Evergrande ordered to be wound up by Hong Kong court
https://www.ft.com/content/d7b61c43-be36-49da-894e-cac68fefbc81 

China’s Real Estate Crisis ‘Has Not Touched Bottom’

India's Booming Property Sector

India’s trend-defying property market is a sight to behold
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3250116/indias-trend-defying-property-market-sight-behold
A growing middle class, the right government support and a favorable external environment have given the property sector wings to escape the headwinds buffeting markets elsewhere.
The Indian economy’s exceptional performance and potential is driving sentiment all across the sector, from residential to office and retail.

India's Real-Estate Market is Growing Fast. Will it Last?

EM Debt Looks Attractive

Europe Upset by America’s Protectionist Tilt

‘What the Hell?’ Europe Chafes at America’s Protectionist Tilt
https://www.wsj.com/politics/policy/us-europe-trade-relations-849fe23a
After the Biden administration echoes Trump’s restrictive trade views, European officials worry the U.S. isn’t what it used to be. “The honeymoon is over.” 

An Overstretched Superpower

America’s Strategy of Ambiguity Is Ending Now
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/22/america-biden-foreign-policy-ambiguity-alliances-security-taiwan-nato-china/
The United States has expanded its security commitments around the world—and the bill is coming due. 

US Housing: Why Baby Boomers Are Not Downsizing

Sunday, January 28, 2024

Trust and Political Leadership

Western Political leaders are quite unpopular at the moment:
Why political leaders are so unpopular now
https://www.ft.com/content/a46540ac-dc82-4197-9e09-cbf176f43020
Ruchir Sharma:
Joe Biden’s record low popularity ratings get a lot of attention, yet leaders across the developed world are in a similar predicament to the US president — they have rarely been this unpopular.
I track leaders’ approval ratings in 20 major democracies, using leading pollsters such as Morning Consult, Gallup and Compolítica. In the developed world, no leader has a rating above 50 per cent.

 
Meanwhile,
A Harvest of Trust: An anatomy of the power and popularity of Narendra Modi
https://openthemagazine.com/cover-stories/a-harvest-of-trust/
Trust is a value formed and nurtured as much by tangible achievements as by the psychological satisfaction people derive from them. This is evident in Modi’s case. What he delivered on were not just physical commitments; his pledges were deliv­ered on the cultural, spiritual, religious, and civilisational fronts, eliciting mass faith and collective confidence.
 
PM Modi tops list of most popular global leaders with 76% rating
https://www.livemint.com/news/india/pm-modi-tops-list-of-most-popular-global-leaders-with-over-75-rating-check-whos-least-popular-11702050909078.html 

Saturday, January 27, 2024

Auto Insurance and Inflation

Why Did Car Insurance Get So Expensive?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/here-s-why-your-car-insurance-bill-has-never-been-more-expensive
Rates in the US have risen 37% since January 2020 as repair tabs for high-tech, sensor-laden vehicles have soared.

AI and Economic Development

Could AI transform life in developing countries?
https://www.economist.com/briefing/2024/01/25/could-ai-transform-life-in-developing-countries
Optimists hope it will ease grave shortages of human capital 

America's Border Crisis

China's EV City

What China’s E.V. City Says About the State of the Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/business/china-hefei-ev-city-economy.html
Hefei has led the country in making electric vehicles and other tech products, but it still has not escaped a nationwide housing crisis. 

UK’s Underperforming Stock Market

There is only one cure for Britain’s sickly stock market
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/27/uk-stock-market-international-investors-economy/
Radical action is required to restore international faith and save the economy 

Saudi Arabia's Grandiose Projects


 
The Hidden Rivalry of Saudi Arabia and the UAE
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/25/the-hidden-rivalry-of-saudi-arabia-and-the-uae/
The two countries look like allies—but are increasingly regional competitors. 

Can the World Avoid a Major Conflict?

How to Lower the Risk of War with China
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/27/opinion/china-taiwan-war.html
NICHOLAS KRISTOF:
So we should be alert not only to the risk that China poses to peace in the region but also to the risk we Americans unintentionally pose, and to the possibility that our legitimate efforts to confront China can lead to accidents at sea or air that lead to war.
There is a fine line between deterring China and provoking it. My take is that while we should do significantly more to help Taiwan boost defenses and deter aggression, we should do so quietly, without needlessly humiliating China. Sometimes Americans loudly embrace Taiwan in ways that inflame tensions at times when we should be hoping to lower them.
 
The Next Global War
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/next-global-war
How Today’s Regional Conflicts Resemble the Ones That Produced World War II
 
The Myths That Warp How America Sees Russia—and Vice Versa
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/myths-warp-how-america-sees-russia-and-vice-versa
How Mutual Misunderstanding Breeds Tension and Conflict
 
India can be peacemaker to the world
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/India-can-be-peacemaker-to-the-world 

Friday, January 26, 2024

Downside of Remote Work

Remote Workers Bear the Brunt When Layoffs Hit
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/layoffs-remote-work-data-980ed59d
New data shows fully remote employees are more likely to be let go than their peers. They are also more likely to quit. 

Are Hegemonic Powers Necessary to Sustain Global Trade/Finance?

Revisiting the fallacies in Hegemonic Stability Theory in light of the 2007–2008 crisis: the theory’s hollow conceptualization of hegemony
https://doi.org/10.1080/09692290.2019.1701061
Abstract
In light of the renewed popularity of Hegemonic Stability Theory (HST) in the context of governance debates in the aftermath of the 2007–2008 crisis, this paper revisits, from a conceptual angle, the shaky basis upon which the theory draws a causal link between hegemony and stability. The paper is a critique of HST as a theory of hegemony that contains an underdeveloped concept of hegemony only defined ex post, highlighting that it is precisely this hollow conceptualization that has allowed for the perceived compatibility between US power and stability at a point in time (the Bretton Woods years) to be erroneously generalized into a causal relationship. The paper also shows, via the example of Germany in the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU), how inattention to the conceptual content of HST has permitted the heedless extension of a problematic understanding of hegemony through stability to cases of regional hegemony.


The risks of relying on superpowers to protect global trade
https://www.ft.com/content/b4fa4132-680b-4494-aa32-980aa9dab9de
 
The IMF is an anchor adrift in a changing world economy
https://www.ft.com/content/bd95f714-dc1c-4ee0-ba1b-af89c224c9ff 

Tesla – No Longer Magnificent

Economic Forecasting - A Futile Exercise?

Economists Predicted a Recession. So Far They’ve Been Wrong.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/26/business/economy/economy-recession-soft-landing.html
A widely predicted recession never showed up. Now, economists are assessing what the unexpected resilience tells us about the future. 

Thursday, January 25, 2024

Kagame's Rwanda

How the West’s Favorite Autocrat Engineered Africa’s Most Dramatic Turnaround
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2024-01-25/rwanda-s-paul-kagame-is-the-west-s-favorite-autocrat
Paul Kagame, the longtime president of Rwanda, wins plaudits abroad for making his tiny country a continental power. But the transformation has meant suppression of dissent and alleged assassinations of critics.

Chinese Stocks Are Cheap

Chinese stocks are dirt cheap – is this the time to buy?
Despite Beijing’s economic woes some convincing arguments remain for investing
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/25/chinese-stocks-are-dirt-cheap-is-this-the-moment-to-buy/
TOM STEVENSON:
China has been a disappointment over longer time periods, too. If you had invested in Chinese shares 20 years ago, soon after the country joined the World Trade Organization, you would have doubled your initial investment. 
Not bad, you might think, until you compare that return with the four-fold increase in the value of the US stock market over the same period, and the fact that a similar investment in the Indian stock market would have multiplied your investment ten times.
 
 
A Smarter Way to Play 'China Bailout Roulette'
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/a-smarter-way-to-play-china-bailout-roulette-8502fb02 

As China’s Markets Stumble, Japan Rises Toward Record
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/26/business/japan-nikkei-china-hang-seng.html
A change in perception among investors about China and Japan is one of the biggest themes in the markets right now.

US Economy Remained Strong at the End of 2023

What Recession? Growth Ended Up Accelerating in 2023
https://www.wsj.com/economy/gdp-us-economy-fourth-quarter-2023-forecast-9fc372f0 


Taiwan's TSMC - The Most Important Company in the World

Visiting the Most Important Company in the World
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/24/opinion/tsmc-taiwan-china.html 

Protecting Crucial Sea Lanes

Red Sea Conflict Prompts India’s Navy to Flex Its Muscles
https://www.wsj.com/world/india/red-sea-conflict-prompts-indias-navy-to-flex-its-muscles-5b096317
Indian officials say its navy, beefed up to better deal with China concerns, is closely monitoring and responding to ships in distress 

Wednesday, January 24, 2024

Climate Economics

‘We’re All Climate Economists Now’
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/23/business/economy/climate-change-economics.html
With climate change affecting everything from household finances to electric grids, the profession is increasingly focused on how society can mitigate carbon emissions and cope with their impact. 

Trumponomics 2.0


Trump 2.0 threatens economic disaster if the sugar rush ends
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/23/donald-trump-threat-to-us-economy-jamie-dimon/
Behind the vacuous bluster is a presidential candidate who could inflict lasting damage

Declining Trust in our Institutions: The Role of Media, Politics, and Tech

The News About the News Business Is Getting Grimmer
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/24/business/media/media-industry-layoffs-decline.html
Mass layoffs, closures and reader fatigue are afflicting news organizations as Americans prepare for a consequential election year.
 
How American Institutions Went from Trust to Bust
https://www.wsj.com/articles/american-institutions-went-from-trust-to-bust-media-schools-business-promises-43c8d18
Leaders betrayed and disdained the people, and partisanship and social media didn’t help.
 
Why we stopped trusting elites
https://www.theguardian.com/news/2018/nov/29/why-we-stopped-trusting-elites-the-new-populism
The credibility of establishment figures has been demolished by technological change and political upheavals. But it’s too late to turn back the clock 

Asian Billionaires and Asian-American Business Leaders

 
21 Indian-origin CEOs of billion-dollar companies
https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/nri/work/sundar-pichai-satya-nadella-ajay-banga-arvind-krishna-and-20-other-indian-origin-ceos-of-billion-dollar-companies/sundar-pichai/slideshow/105593531.cms
 
Note:
Founder and CEO of NVIDIA – Jensen Huang (Taiwanese-Origin)
CEO of AMD – Lisa Su (Taiwanese-Origin) 

Origin of the PC Revolution

Forty years ago Apple debuted a computer that changed our world, for good or ill
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2024/jan/24/apple-macintosh-ad-super-bowl-1984-21st-century
In many ways, the long 21st century began when Apple launched the Macintosh with its ‘1984’ Super Bowl ad 

China’s ‘X-Institute’ for Gifted Scientists

What happens at China’s ‘X-Institute’ for gifted scientists of the future
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3248872/what-happens-chinas-x-institute-gifted-scientists-future
China’s future scientists are being nurtured and guided in their education journey at the X-Institute in Shenzhen 

Related:
The Chinese scientists leaving top US universities to take up high-profile roles in China, boosting Beijing in its race for global talent
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/science/article/3249683/chinese-scientists-leaving-top-us-universities-take-high-profile-roles-china-boosting-beijing-its

‘Magnificent Seven’ Remain Dominant

Tech’s ‘Magnificent Seven’ Stocks Are Back on Top
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/tech-stocks-nvidia-microsoft-rise-288c36d1
Sector giants added more than $5 trillion in market value in 2023

These Seven Tech Stocks Are Driving the Market
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/01/22/business/magnificent-seven-stocks-tech.html 

The Money-Market Bonanza Is Over. So is Now the Time for Stocks?
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/money-market-returns-stocks-investment-9279f60f
For those looking for fresh returns in 2024, the hot stock market is just one place to consider


Monday, January 22, 2024

Are Investors Ignoring Political and Geopolitical Risks?

The Markets Party Like It’s 1939
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-markets-party-like-its-1939-world-in-chaos-israel-pakistan-russia-taiwan-crisis-3595d994
As 2024 starts, investors seem untroubled by a series of crises, wars and political uncertainties. 

The dangers lurking in our messy and unpredictable world
https://www.ft.com/content/c92f0836-9d8d-49fc-b1c8-44eb478034c2
 
Trump 2.0 threatens economic disaster if the sugar rush ends
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/23/donald-trump-threat-to-us-economy-jamie-dimon/
Behind the vacuous bluster is a presidential candidate who could inflict lasting damage

Bank Regulation and Capital Requirements

More Regulation? Big Banks Say They’re Safe Enough Already.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/22/opinion/banks-regulation-financial-crisis.html 

Rise of the Introverts

The Introverts Have Taken Over the US Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-22/the-introverts-have-taken-over-the-us-economy
During the pandemic, a lot of Americans had to stay home — and many discovered that they preferred staying in to going out. 

Sunday, January 21, 2024

What Exactly is the Point of Bitcoin?

Crypto may have become boring, but it still isn’t legit
https://www.ft.com/content/c4fd2c69-c69a-49e4-9e93-d687aa801e87

The Bitcoin Hype Is Back and About Just as Hollow as Before
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-18/bitcoin-price-surge-masks-same-old-concerns
Yes, crypto has surged since Sam Bankman-Fried went down. And sure, ETFs have made Bitcoin easier to buy than ever before. But the basic story—buyer beware—remains the same. 

Bitcoin ETFs are a siren song, not proof of concept
https://www.ft.com/content/5ea8fa5c-19ef-4679-93a1-63badfb4a49c
Well-established financial institutions might want to be wary of speculation without a broader transactional use for crypto

ETFs Make Bitcoin’s Problems Even Worse
https://www.wsj.com/finance/currencies/etfs-make-bitcoins-problems-even-worse-f48256d2
Bitcoin ETFs are likely to exacerbate its bad performance in crises by bringing in even more speculators to what’s already mostly a speculative asset

Bitcoin ETFs miss the point


 
My take from 2021:
Digital gold: Is Bitcoin the future of money? By Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 05/24/21
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/554998-is-bitcoin-the-future-of-money/

Can GUVs Reduce the Spread of Infectious Diseases?

Ultraviolet light can kill almost all the viruses in a room. Why isn’t it everywhere?
https://www.vox.com/the-highlight/23972651/ultraviolet-disinfection-germicide-far-uv
Dylan Mathews notes:
The technology is called germicidal ultraviolet light (GUV), and in particular, a relatively novel kind of ultraviolet light often denoted as “far-UV.” “We have so much data suggesting that this is far and away the most impactful technology, when it comes to protecting people from infectious disease, that exists today,” says Kevin Esvelt, a professor and biologist at MIT who has championed the idea.
These advocates imagine a world in which far-UV lamps are set up in most large indoor spaces where people gather, emitting rays that kill airborne viruses and bacteria while leaving humans unharmed. If all goes according to plan, day cares will stop spreading around noroviruses and flus; hospital infections will plummet; elderly and immunocompromised people can gather openly, unmasked, without fearing they’ll catch something. In a world where the flu alone imposes an average of $11 billion in economic costs per year to the US and Covid has cost the United States on the order of $14 trillion, it’s a nearly utopian vision. 

Multiculturalism and Islamist Ideology

Multiculturalism is becoming a Trojan horse for Islamist domination
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2024/01/21/michaela-school-multiculturalism-trojan-horse-islamist/
The Michaela scandal is another clash between this hostile ideology and British values 

Preventing China's Dominance of Asia

America Can’t Surpass China’s Power in Asia

Will China's BRI Gamble Actually Payoff?

The Red Sea Crisis Proves China Was Ahead of the Curve
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/20/url-red-sea-houthis-china-belt-road-suez-trade-corridors/
The Belt and Road Initiative wasn’t a sinister plot. It was a blueprint for what every nation needs in an age of uncertainty and disruption.
                 
China's Belt and Road Initiative - A Success?
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/10/chinas-bri.html
 
Related:
The Panama Canal Is Running Dry
https://foreignpolicy.com/2024/01/15/panama-suez-canal-global-shipping-crisis-climate-change-drought/
 



Saturday, January 20, 2024

Literature and Economics

An Economics Lesson from Tolstoy by Nick Romeo
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/annals-of-inquiry/an-economics-lesson-from-tolstoy
Nick Romeo:
Tolstoy saw a moral dimension to economic thinking. There was a time when mainstream economists saw it, too. “It seems clearer every day that the moral problem of our age is concerned with the Love of Money,” the economist John Maynard Keynes wrote, in 1925. Keynes, like Tolstoy, recognized that many major topics of economics are inescapably moral and political: the “master-economist,” he wrote on another occasion, “must be mathematician, historian, statesman, philosopher—in some degree.” With an optimism that proved premature, Keynes described a future when “the love of money as a possession—as distinguished from the love of money as a means to the enjoyments and realities of life—will be recognized for what it is, a somewhat disgusting morbidity.” Critiquing the “decadent” and “individualistic” nature of international capitalism after the First World War, he wrote, “it is not intelligent, it is not beautiful, it is not just, it is not virtuous.” 

You’re All Paying Attention to the Wrong Davos
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-19/davos-2024-why-go-to-world-economic-forum-when-you-could-read-thomas-mann
There’s no point in going to the World Economic Forum when you could be reading Thomas Mann’s The Magic Mountain.

Dubai and Globalization

The world is better seen from Dubai than from Davos
https://www.ft.com/content/9e6a380f-4377-4cfa-aa0d-c5ae5e9cc483
The Gulf state city shows that globalization isn’t so much dying as moving east 

Steel Industry and Pining for an Industrial Past

Britain cannot succeed by clinging to an obsolete industrial past
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/20/britain-cannot-hope-succeed-clinging-obsolete-industry/
Jeremy Warner:
I nevertheless find myself wondering whether Britain’s growing success in the high value enterprises of the future – the creative industries, tech, AI, the life sciences, and so on – may have something to do with the country’s willingness to let go of its proud industrial past, and instead embrace the new. This is what marks the UK out from much of the rest of Europe, and despite the grimly dispiriting state of our public services, the steadily rising tax burden and the paralysis of our political system, gives at least some hope for the future.
For the truth of the matter is that although materials like steel are the very bedrock of our economic prosperity, without which we would be back in a pre-industrial age, they are also an increasingly unimportant part of the value chain.
 
Related:
Summers Warns Biden Team Against Pandering on US Steel Deal
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/summers-warns-biden-team-against-160540573.html 

American Foreign Policy - Isolationist or Interventionist

Taiwan’s Doubts About America Are Growing. That Could Be Dangerous.
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/world/asia/taiwan-united-states-views.html
Will deepening skepticism about the United States as a trustworthy nation diminish Taiwan’s belief that it could fend off China?
 
ROSS DOUTHAT:
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/opinion/nikki-haley-trump-foreign-policy.html
“… when the history of 21st-century American decline is written, the crucial chapter will focus not on Trump but on one of his predecessors, George W. Bush: a better man than Trump, a capable politician with a number of sound policies to his credit, but also the architect of a hubristic foreign policy whose disastrous effects continue to ripple through the country and the world.
The Iraq war and the slower, longer failure in Afghanistan didn’t just begin the unraveling of the Pax Americana. They also discredited the American establishment at home, shattering the center-right and undermining the center-left, dissolving confidence in politicians, bureaucracies and even the military itself, while the war’s social effects lingered in the opioid epidemic and the mental health crisis …
the greater peril is an American establishment and an American president who overestimate our powers, commit ourselves too broadly and too thinly, and end up facing a series of outright military debacles and defeats.”. 

Friday, January 19, 2024

Balneario Camboriu - The ‘Dubai of Brazil’

The ‘Dubai of Brazil’ Is a Bet on a Future that Only Goes Up
https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2024-brazil-balneario-camboriu/
Balneario Camboriu has become a test case for what happens when private developers are given free rein
 

Related:
New Utopian Enclave? Or a Testament to Inequality?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/18/world/americas/cayala-guatemala.html
The development of Cayalá is utopian, serene and prizewinning. As an elite stronghold in one of Latin America’s most unequal nations, it is also divisive.

Resilient Consumers Prop Up the American Economy

The U.S. Seems to Be Dodging a Recession. What Could Go Wrong?
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/business/economy/economy-recession-soft-landing.html
Economists have become increasingly optimistic about the odds of a soft landing. But as 2024 begins to unfold, risks remain.

A New Record High for US Equities

Stocks Climb to Record, Lifted by Big Tech and Rate Cut Hopes
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/19/business/stock-market-record.html
The S&P 500 crossed above its January 2022 peak after weeks of wavering. Investors have been buying stocks after homing in on signals that the Fed’s campaign of raising interest rates is over.

An Optimistic Take:
This Isn’t Your Father’s S&P 500. Don’t Worry About Valuations.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-19/s-p-500-don-t-let-valuations-new-record-worry-you
While the onus is on companies to beat earnings projections after the index printed a fresh record, we have the right cohort of companies to get the job done.

Cautionary Takes:
The perils of investing in the world of one trade
https://www.ft.com/content/6037e1e6-1326-4159-94a9-9a1b5130a4fc
Where US interest rates are headed will still be the biggest influence on investment performance

Stocks Are at Record Highs, but Things Will Only Get Harder from Here
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/stocks-are-at-record-highs-but-things-will-only-get-harder-from-here-d528a6dc
Expectations for interest-rate cuts are waning. Some investors say stock gains might be hard-won as a result.


Why Investing for the Long-Run Truly Matters:
The Market Has Had a Fabulous Run, but This Peak Doesn’t Really Matter
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/20/business/stock-market-peak-investing.html
Compound returns that grow as stocks rise over the decades are far more important than the latest high, our columnist says.

Improving the Jobs Prospects of High School Graduates

Empowering Our Future Workforce Requires Transforming High Schools
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2024-01-19/michael-r-bloomberg-health-care-needs-america-s-high-school-students
Michael Bloomberg:
“… the current 2 million job openings in health care offer median starting salaries as high as $70,000, as well as opportunities for growth and advancement. So why aren’t American high schools preparing students for these jobs?
Too many political leaders pretend all students want to go to college. Students who seek to begin working immediately after high school often get shunted into antiquated vocational programs for jobs that are dying out. An overhaul of these programs is long overdue, to align them with both student interest and economic realities — and health care is the perfect place to start”. 

US Housing Market – Existing Home Sales Tanked in 2023

Home Sales Fell to Lowest Level in 28 Years in 2023
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/home-sales-likely-fell-to-15-year-low-in-2023-3da220e1
High mortgage rates and prices made home-buying prohibitively expensive for many people in the U.S. last year.
 
The Economy Is Starting to Look Normal—Housing Isn’t
https://www.wsj.com/economy/housing/the-economy-is-starting-to-look-normalhousing-isnt-66266f5d 

Hybrid Work/Remote Work and Productivity

Interesting new research from the San Francisco Fed:
Does Working from Home Boost Productivity Growth?
https://www.frbsf.org/wp-content/uploads/sites/4/el2024-02.pdf
The shift to remote and hybrid work has reshaped society in important ways, and these effects are likely to continue to evolve. For example, with less time spent commuting, some people have moved out of cities, and the lines between work and home life have blurred. Despite these noteworthy effects, in this Letter we find little evidence in industry data that the shift to remote and hybrid work has either substantially held back or boosted the rate of productivity growth.
Our findings do not rule out possible future changes in productivity growth from the spread of remote work. The economic environment has changed in many ways during and since the pandemic, which could have masked the longer-run effects of teleworking. Continuous innovation is the key to sustained productivity growth. Working remotely could foster innovation through a reduction in communication costs and improved talent allocation across geographic areas. However, working off-site could also hamper innovation by reducing in-person office interactions that foster idea generation and diffusion. The future of work is likely to be a hybrid format that balances the benefits and limitations of remote work. 

Divergent Fortunes: India versus China

JPMorgan says India is its No. 1 market in Asia; investors are unlikely to return to China this year
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/01/16/jpmorgan-says-india-is-its-no-1-market-in-asia-and-a-favorite-globally.html
 
India Stocks Command a Near-Record 157% Premium Over China Peers
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-16/india-stocks-valuation-premium-over-china-approaches-record



The India Rising Narrative
Modi’s India Is Beating Xi’s China in the Mojo War

Why India Isn’t the New China
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/why-india-isnt-the-new-china-e61f4699
The country’s population surpassed China’s last year. But India’s path forward is likely to look very different from its neighbor’s.
 
How strong is India’s economy under Narendra Modi?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/01/15/how-strong-is-indias-economy-under-narendra-modi
It has neither boomed nor slumped. But growth may be taking off 

India set to be renewable energy hub with hundreds of billions earmarked for projects
https://www.scmp.com/week-asia/economics/article/3249134/india-set-be-renewable-energy-hub-hundreds-billions-earmarked-projects

NIL and the Modern-Day Superstar College Athlete

A look at Caitlin Clark’s NIL deals from Nike to Gatorade and many more
https://www.yahoo.com/sports/look-caitlin-clark-nil-deals-135031595.html 

The Pandemic Business Cycle

What economists have learnt from the post-pandemic business cycle
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/01/17/what-economists-have-learnt-from-the-post-pandemic-business-cycle
The curious and furious recovery has brought some old ideas back to the fore 

A Silly Inflation Debate

Inflation Is Down, but It Wasn’t ‘Transitory’
https://www.wsj.com/articles/inflation-is-down-but-it-wasnt-transitory-federal-reserve-government-debt-soft-landing-8b648048
The Federal Reserve’s monetary restraint was crucial in slowing the rise of prices.
 
Has Team Transitory really won America’s inflation debate?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/01/10/has-team-transitory-really-won-americas-inflation-debate 

Related:
West braces for global ‘rewiring’
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2024/01/17/red-sea-crisis-new-era-interest-rates-davos-inflation/
Red Sea crisis signals the end of the 'free money' era

AI Bubble?

AI Is the Talk of Davos. Is It Time to Sell?
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-is-the-talk-of-davos-is-it-time-to-sell-6727ed9a
The truly crazy bubble phase is over, but the investment case remains complex 

What happened to the artificial-intelligence investment boom?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2024/01/07/what-happened-to-the-artificial-intelligence-investment-boom
Perhaps AI is a busted flush. Perhaps the revolution will just take time 

After a Sugar High of Free Money, These Billion-Dollar Technologies Need a Nap
https://www.wsj.com/tech/personal-tech/after-a-sugar-high-of-free-money-these-billion-dollar-technologies-need-a-nap-dc4c4b20
Once overhyped and overpromised, these major areas of tech investment are finally facing reality. The contraction and disinvestment may only be just beginning.

The Battle for Global Tech Supremacy

How China is making its dream of flying cars, drones and sky cities come true
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3248760/how-china-making-its-dream-flying-cars-drones-and-sky-cities-come-true
Policy, financial and infrastructural support is creating a conducive ecosystem for China’s ‘low altitude economy’, integrating advanced aerial tech into everyday life and urban planning.
 
Inside China's Tech Boom
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/inside-chinas-tech-boom/
The inside story of China’s meteoric rise to the forefront of global innovation. 

Modern American Society - Overprotected and Overcautious

Death by a Thousand Paper Cuts
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/01/18/opinion/american-life-bureaucracy.html
David Brooks:
This state of affairs pervades American life. Childhood is now thoroughly administered. I’m lucky enough to have grown up at a time when parents let children roam free to invent their own games and solve their own problems. Now kids’ activities, from travel sports to recess, are supervised, and rules dominate. Parents are afraid their kids might be harmed, but as Jonathan Haidt and Greg Lukianoff have argued, by being overprotective, parents make their kids more fragile and more vulnerable to harm.
High school students design their lives to fit the metrics that college admissions officers require. And what traits are selective schools looking for? They’re looking for students who are willing to conform to the formulas the gatekeepers devise.
I’ve found the administrators’ code of safety first is now prevalent at the colleges where I’ve taught and visited. Aside from being a great school, Stanford used to be a weird school, where students set up idiosyncratic arrangements like an anarchist house or built their own islands in the middle of the lake. This was great preparation for life as a creative entrepreneur. But Stanford is apparently now tamed. I invite you to read Ginevra Davis’s essay “Stanford’s War on Social Life” in Palladium, which won a vaunted Sidney Award in 2022 and details how university administrators cracked down on student initiatives to make everything boring, supervised and safe. 

Related:
David Brooks previously noted:
“Over the past decades, a tide of “safetyism” has crept over American society. As Greg Lukianoff and Jonathan Haidt put it in their book “The Coddling of the American Mind,” this is the mentality that whatever doesn’t kill you makes you weaker. The goal is to eliminate any stress or hardship a child might encounter, so he or she won’t be wounded by it … It’s been a disaster. This overprotective impulse doesn’t shelter people from fear; it makes them unprepared to deal with the fear that inevitably comes. …
But there has been one sector of American society that has been relatively immune from this culture of overprotection — medical training. It starts on the undergraduate level. While most academic departments slather students with A’s, science departments insist on mastery of the materials. According to one study, the average English class G.P.A. is above 3.3 and the average chemistry class G.P.A. is 2.78.”

Parents Are Supporting Adult Kids Financially — and Emotionally

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-01-25/parents-are-supporting-adult-children-financially-and-emotionally

More than ever, parents are supporting their adult children financially — and emotionally.

Nearly 60% of parents said they were providing financial support to their adult kids ages 18 to 34, according to a new report from Pew Research Center. That’s because parents these days are more involved and supportive of their children’s lives well into adulthood, said Kim Parker, the organization’s director of social trends research.