The Long and Slow Decline of Britain

Britain’s eternal decline
https://www.newstatesman.com/the-weekend-essay/2023/09/britain-eternal-decline
Debate on Britain’s place in the world has flared through war, imperial upheaval and Thatcherism. Brexit reignited it. 

Why are white Britons dying at higher rates than other ethnic groups?
https://www.ft.com/content/f51ee83d-8a9b-4eba-8a04-5609c70a74fa

Is Mississippi Really as Poor as Britain?
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/08/britain-mississippi-economy-comparison/675039/
The question is usually posed the other way around—which is an insult to the dynamic economy of this southern state that is now my home.

The New Anatomy of Britain

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-decline-of-british-civil-service-by-robert-skidelsky-2023-09 

M. S. Swaminathan - Father of India’s Green Revolution

M. S. Swaminathan, Scientist Who Helped Conquer Famine in India, Dies at 98
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/28/world/asia/ms-swaminathan-dead.html
Called the father of India’s Green Revolution, he served on agencies and boards around the world and developed a system of ecologically safe food production. 

A Reality Check for US Equities

The 2023 Stock-Market Rally Sputters in New World of Yield
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/the-2023-stock-market-rally-sputters-in-new-world-of-yield-63134c7f
Heading into the fourth quarter, the S&P 500 is clinging to a 12% advance for the year
 
Stock Traders’ Risk Appetite Faces Great Reset
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-29/the-great-reset-on-wall-street-builds-as-stock-traders-sober-up 

Related:

Why High Interest Rates and Energy Prices Are Stressing the Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/29/business/interest-rates-energy-prices-stocks-economy.html

A Mentalist on 'Fast Money'

Not All Graduate Degrees are Good Investments?

Getting a Master’s Degree May Not Pay Off with a Higher Salary
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-29/graduate-school-debt-set-to-outpace-undergraduate-loans
Graduate students are taking on an outsized share of federal loans, and for the first time are set to outpace how much undergraduates are borrowing.

Reversing Aging

Geopolitical Shifts in Asia

Working with Gulf states, India can build a new center of power
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Working-with-Gulf-states-India-can-build-a-new-center-of-power
 
China jitters turn private equity investors toward India, Indonesia
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/China-jitters-turn-private-equity-investors-toward-India-Indonesia 

Data Revisions Complicate the Story

Americans Saved $1.1 Trillion Less Than Previously Thought From 2017-2022
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-28/americans-saved-1-1-trillion-less-than-thought-from-2017-2022 

Rise of the Surveillance State

Google User Data Has Become a Favorite Police Shortcut
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2023-09-28/google-user-data-is-police-s-top-shortcut-for-solving-crimes
Investigators increasingly use warrants to obtain location and search data from Google, even for nonviolent cases—and even for people who had nothing to do with the crime. 

A.I., Brain Scans and Cameras: The Spread of Police Surveillance Tech
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/30/technology/police-surveillance-tech-dubai.html
In the Middle East, artificial intelligence and other emerging technologies have become part of everyday policing. 

Trade Wars - Back to the 1930s?

The world is repeating the same dangerous mistakes as in the 1930s
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/09/27/world-dangerous-mistakes-1930s-trade-protectionism/
Free trade is not just a route to economic prosperity but is also a guarantee of peace between nations

Why the World Still Needs Trade
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/world/why-world-still-needs-trade
The Case for Reimagining—Not Abandoning—Globalization 

What should the 2023 Washington Consensus be?

The Rise and Fall of NFTs

What were NFTs? An understandable internet fad, and the next one is just around the corner
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/27/nfts-non-fungible-tokens-pandemic-loneliness-craze 

The vast majority of NFTs are now worthless, new report shows
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2023/sep/22/nfts-worthless-price
Related:
https://dappgambl.com/nfts/dead-nfts/ 

NFT Bubbles by Andrea Barbon and Angelo Ranaldo
https://arxiv.org/pdf/2303.06051.pdf
Abstract
By investigating nonfungible tokens (NFTs), we provide the first systematic study of retail investor behavior through asset bubbles. Given that NFTs are recorded in public blockchains, we are able to track investor behavior over time, leading to the identification of numerous price run-ups and crashes. Our study reveals that agent-level variables, such as investor sophistication, heterogeneity, and wash trading, in addition to aggregate variables, such as volatility, price acceleration, and turnover, significantly predict bubble formation and price crashes. We find that sophisticated investors consistently outperform others and exhibit characteristics consistent with superior information and skills, supporting the narrative surrounding asset pricing bubbles.

Permacrisis

Permacrisis: A Plan to Fix a Fractured World

Ghost Listings Distort Data on Job Openings

You Applied for Your Dream Job. Is the Posting Real?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-27/jobseekers-facing-fake-postings-show-trouble-with-jolts-report
Government data indicate there are about 9 million jobs available in the US right now, but you wouldn’t know it from talking to some jobseekers.
Their frustration stems from being “ghosted” by employers who, for various reasons, don’t actually intend to fill all of their posted job openings. Revelio Labs, a workforce intelligence firm, says reported incidences of ghosting have doubled in many industries versus pre-pandemic, while the average job posting is only about half as likely to result in a new hire today.

Is The Job You're Applying for A 'Ghost Listing'? Here's How to Spot One.
https://www.huffpost.com/entry/ghost-job-postings-inactive_l_64946cffe4b0c0ed59b0f788
 
Job Listings Abound, but Many Are Fake
https://www.wsj.com/articles/that-plum-job-listing-may-just-be-a-ghost-3aafc794
In an uncertain economy, companies post ads for jobs they might not really be trying to fill

Canada - A Long History of Incompetence

Khalistan resides in the Anglosphere
https://chellaney.net/2023/10/02/khalistan-resides-in-the-anglosphere/
For nearly four decades since the deadly Air India flight bombing, New Delhi has put up with the Anglosphere countries’ sheltering of violence-espousing extremists from India. Now a critical moment has been reached when India needs to demonstrate the political will to keep these countries under sustained pressure so that they begin cleaning up their act at home.

Air India Flight 182: India-Canada row brings 1985 bombing back in news
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66909820

What’s the mood in India and Canada? Two commentators on the ground weigh in.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/20/canada-india-trudeau-modi-assassination/

Why Indians Can’t Stand Justin Trudeau
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-indians-angry-justin-trudeau-death-shooting-hardeep-singh-nijjar-87d9ab9d
He’s seen as a lightweight and a panderer, which heightens the outrage over his accusations.

Canada is alone in the world
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-canada-is-alone-in-the-world/
And all too often, foreign and defence policy is simply framed as a hunt for votes. This is a long-standing issue in defence procurement. Likewise, the deeply entrenched practice in Canadian politics of playing diaspora diplomacy festers, even though diaspora games in Canada can have damaging consequences beyond our borders.

The Roots of the India-Canada Clash
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/india-canada-diplomatic-spat-sikh-separatists-trudeau-accusations-by-brahma-chellaney-2023-10
Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau's recent claim that India’s government might be linked to the fatal shooting of a Sikh separatist on Canadian soil has sent bilateral relations into a tailspin. Even if the current tensions ease, Canada's refusal to rein in Sikh separatism will continue to fuel tension.

Revitalizing American Society

Saving Trees, Losing Forests
https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/saving-trees-losing-forests
Americans today suffer from family disintegration, homelessness, racial animosity, suicide, and deaths of despair — and on a scale without parallel elsewhere in the developed world. These problems reflect Americans' social breakdown: the fraying of the relationships that used to bind us to each other. Yet our government bodies, philanthropists, and social entrepreneurs target these challenges in separated siloes, often weakening the very relationships people need in the process. They should rethink their approaches with a focus on place.
 
 
Opportunity Pluralism in Education
https://www.nationalaffairs.com/publications/detail/opportunity-pluralism-in-education
Our education debates assume that the purpose of schooling is to accumulate wealth, and that college is the way to obtain it. Both assumptions are mistaken. They obscure the fact that there are multiple pathways to opportunity, and they diminish the vital importance of social skills, relationships, and networks for human flourishing. It is time to break free of these unquestioned beliefs. 

Crime Wave in the Anglosphere

Looters ransack Apple and Lululemon stores in Philadelphia
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/09/27/looters-philadelphia-apple-lululemon-foot-locker-stores/

Target to close nine stores nationwide, blaming violence tied to organized theft
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/26/target-stores-closing-retail-crime/
 
Shoplifting Epidemic in UK
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/16/britains-shoplifting-epidemic-shopkeepers-paying-price/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/columnists/2023/09/07/shoplifting-epidemic-britain-on-verge-of-anarchy/
 
Cost-of-Living Stress Fuels Crime Wave in Australia, New Zealand
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-26/criminals-exploiting-cost-of-living-stress-fuel-crime-in-australia-new-zealand 

The Politics of Disinformation

How the U.S. Created Its Own Reality
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/26/heather-cox-richardson-us-democracy-america-history-republican-party/
Historian Heather Cox Richardson charts the roots of 21st-century disinformation—and how American democracy began to falter. 

E.U. Law Sets the Stage for a Clash Over Disinformation
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/27/technology/disinformation-law-european-union.html

India and the World

 

International Affairs - Interesting Items

The West is emulating China
https://www.newstatesman.com/comment/2023/09/the-west-china-authoritarianism
Instead of the People’s Republic becoming more liberal, we have become more authoritarian.
 
The New Moral Order Is Already Crumbling
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-new-moral-order-is-already-crumbling-climate-europe-immigration-australia-25d21439
Globalism, climate-change alarmism and cultural self-annihilation have all come under serious challenge.
 
The Rules-Based International Order Is Quietly Disintegrating
https://www.wsj.com/articles/putin-co-tear-up-the-global-rule-book-international-affairs-world-order-b797ead4 

The Morality of Ukraine’s War Is Very Murky
https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/22/ukraine-war-ethics-morality-murky/

China's Economic Challenges

China’s Economic Slowdown Was Inevitable: The Illusory Success of State Capitalism
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/chinas-economic-slowdown-was-inevitable
 
Why China’s soaring youth unemployment doesn’t signal an economic apocalypse
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3235796/why-chinas-soaring-youth-unemployment-doesnt-signal-economic-apocalypse
 
How China can avoid the Japan trap
https://www.ft.com/content/156c092a-4313-48cc-8103-79bb26c0faaa 

Indo-Israeli Alliance

'Israeli tech, know-how being transferred to India': Foreign Minister Cohen
https://www.theweek.in/theweek/cover/2023/09/23/eli-cohen-israel-foreign-minister-exclusive-interview.html
 
Acquisition of the Haifa port has placed India at a vantage point of the India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor that connects the east and the west, bypassing the Suez Canal.
https://www.theweek.in/videos/video-featured.playlist.video.6337601333112.html
 
India, Israel's 'Indo-Abrahamic Alliance' continues to gather pace
https://www.jpost.com/international/article-723316

Amazon - E-Commerce Monopoly?

Amazon Is the Apex Predator of Our Platform Era
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/27/opinion/amazon-ftc-antitrust-monopoly.html

Lina Khan vs. Jeff Bezos: This Is Big Tech’s Real Cage Match
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/27/technology/lina-khan-jeff-bezos-ftc-amazon.html

U.S. Accuses Amazon of Illegally Protecting Monopoly in Online Retail
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/26/technology/ftc-amazon.html
FTC, 17 states sue Amazon, alleging monopolistic practices led to higher prices
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/09/26/amazon-antitrust-lawsuit-ftc/

Amazon’s Own Track Record Undercuts the FTC’s Case
https://www.wsj.com/business/retail/amazons-own-track-record-undercuts-the-ftcs-case-a98e18a0

Related:

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2023/09/big-tech-on-trial.html

UK Higher Education System Faces a Crisis

A Crisis Is Brewing at U.K. Universities
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/tuition-crisis-u-k-universities-cuts-36522dc5
While U.S. college prices keep rising, British tuition is capped by the government—and schools are being forced to cut back on teaching and research. 

US Labor Market - Long-Term Trends

Why America Has a Long-Term Labor Crisis, in Six Charts
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/labor-supply-economy-jobs-charts-3285a5b7 

Electronics Manufacturing - Can India Compete with East Asia?

India is serious about becoming a global electronics hub
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/India-is-serious-about-becoming-a-global-electronics-hub
 
Apple to Scale Up India Production Fivefold to $40 Billion
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-24/apple-to-scale-up-india-production-fivefold-to-40-billion-pti
Related:
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/apple-scale-india-production-fivefold-122953208.html 

Changing Economic Fortunes - Germany versus Greece

Greece, Battered a Decade Ago, Is Booming
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/25/business/greece-economy-eurozone.html
It is one of Europe’s fastest-growing economies, and while investors and tourists are flocking to the country, memories of austerity measures are still fresh for Greeks. 

The sense of decline in Germany is palpable
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/09/24/germany-economy-sick-man-europe-manufacturing/

Problems Facing British and Canadian Single-Payer Healthcare System

As it turns 75, the N.H.S., a proud symbol of Britain's welfare state, is in the deepest crisis of its history.
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/07/16/world/europe/uk-nhs-crisis.html
NHS sinks into £7bn cash crisis as inflation and strikes bite
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2023/sep/17/nhs-sinks-into-7bn-cash-crisis-as-inflation-and-strikes-bite
 
The Private Cost of Public Queues for Medically Necessary Care, 2023
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/private-cost-of-public-queues-for-medically-necessary-care-2023
Children across Canada continue to wait months or longer for surgeries, report finds
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-pediatric-surgery-wait-times/
Related:
https://www.fraserinstitute.org/studies/waiting-your-turn-wait-times-for-health-care-in-canada-2022
Canada’s Health Care System Is on Life Support
https://jacobin.com/2023/01/canada-health-care-austerity-wait-times 

GOOD MODELS:

What Can the U.S. Health System Learn from Singapore?

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/04/22/upshot/singapore-health-system-lessons.html

The Singaporean Model – The Right Combination of Markets and Government

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/18/opinion/sunday/make-america-singapore.html

Finland’s healthcare system is also a good model

https://www.nytimes.com/2017/03/18/opinion/the-fake-freedom-of-american-health-care.html

Russia Sanctions: Law of Unintended Consequences Strikes Again

How Greek shipping oligarchs are reaping billions from Putin’s war
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2023/09/25/greek-shipping-oligarchs-billions-russia/
Rise of Russian shadow fleets has eroded the effectiveness of the G7’s oil price cap

Taxpayers Stuck Paying the Bills for Oligarchs’ Seized Yachts and Mansions
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/taxpayers-stuck-paying-the-bills-for-oligarchs-seized-yachts-and-mansions-afd442e4
Assets taken from sanctioned Russian billionaires are costly to maintain as legal hurdles hold up sales; $28,000 a week to keep mold out of the Alfa Nero. 

Odious Assets
https://www.milkenreview.org/articles/odious-assets#

A Broken Asylum System and the Migrant Crisis

Migrants help double amputee cross Rio Grande with daughter
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/09/25/rio-grande-migrants-us-crossing-joe-biden/

America’s asylum system is broken, and both Biden and House Republicans have ideas for fixing it.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/24/government-shutdown-could-a-deal-on-asylum-avert-it/e29e6106-5ad6-11ee-b961-94e18b27be28_story.html 

Will Work Permits Fix New York’s Migrant Crisis?
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/new-york-work-permits-venezuelan-migrants-e41d633
Biden’s move to grant work authorization to Venezuelans only addresses part of the problem of overrun cities—and could lure more migrants to come.
 
Lesson from El Salvador: People prefer safe streets to human rights
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/25/el-salvador-crime-human-rights-prisons/
 
Slow-Boil Refugee Crisis Takes Toll Even in Germany
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/slow-boil-refugee-crisis-takes-its-toll-even-in-germany-dfdadaae

The enormity of the migrant crisis will upend European politics
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-enormity-of-the-migrant-crisis-will-upend-european-politics/
 
Migration could be ‘dissolving force for EU’, says bloc’s top diplomat
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/sep/22/migration-eu-diplomat-josep-borrell-ukraine-china 

Related:

Better Immigration Policy
https://www.milkenreview.org/articles/better-immigration-policys
It is no secret that the American immigration system is dysfunctional and that reform efforts have long been tied in knots by Congress. But even those with a passing awareness of the outmoded laws and their callous administration may be shocked to learn of the magnitude of the damage the system does.

Labor's Bargaining Power

It's Too Soon for Workers to Pop the Champagne
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-09-24/uaw-hollywood-need-more-than-high-profile-strikes
Unions made a lot of noise this summer, but labor laws and regulations remain roadblocks to better benefits, safety and higher wages. 

Making Manufacturing Good Again

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/opinion/union-manufacturing-jobs-wages.html

Why America Has a Long-Term Labor Crisis in Six Charts
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/labor-supply-economy-jobs-charts-3285a5b7
 
Unions Flex Power When Workers Are in Short Supply
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/unions-flex-power-when-workers-are-in-short-supply-ff4ab076

UPS drivers’ new $170k per year deal shows that unions (and Joe Biden) may just save the middle class after all
https://fortune.com/2023/08/08/ups-drivers-170000-union-agreement-teamsters-middle-class-bidenomics/
Related: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/ups-drivers-170k-per-deal-214956126.html 

Is the Russian Military Learning from its Past Mistakes?

Russia’s Army Learns from Its Mistakes in Ukraine
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/russias-army-learns-from-its-mistakes-in-ukraine-a6b2eb4
Early in the war, the West was shocked at Russia’s poor performance. But Moscow has fixed many errors and adapted on the battlefield. 

Exposing Bad Scientific Research

The Band of Debunkers Busting Bad Scientists
https://www.wsj.com/science/data-colada-debunk-stanford-president-research-14664f3
Stanford’s president and a high-profile physicist are among those taken down by a growing wave of volunteers who expose faulty or fraudulent research papers 

Africa's Growth Challenges

What Happened to Africa Rising? It’s Been Another Lost Decade
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/12/africa-s-lost-decade-economic-pain-underlies-sub-saharan-coups/dcaf6b4c-5125-11ee-accf-88c266213aac_story.html
The continent’s social and political malaise are symptoms of economic distress — not the causes. 

Fragile States Need Customized Support to Strengthen Institutions
https://www.imf.org/en/Blogs/Articles/2023/09/21/fragile-states-need-customized-support-to-strengthen-institutions

Indian Perspective on the Indo-Canadian Spat

What’s the mood in India and Canada? Two commentators on the ground weigh in.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/20/canada-india-trudeau-modi-assassination/

Prime Minister Narendra Modi aired security concerns to Western leaders about separatists abroad
https://www.wsj.com/world/india/indias-clash-with-canada-over-killing-follows-new-wave-of-calls-for-sikh-homeland-8d975ebe

RAW – India’s Spy Agency
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2023/09/24/raw-pavan-rai-canada-india-agency-hardeep-singh-nijjar/

25 Years Later, Have We Learnt the Right Lessons from the Collapse of LTCM?

The Hedge Fund Meltdown That Rescued Your Stock Portfolio
https://www.wsj.com/economy/central-banking/the-hedge-fund-meltdown-that-rescued-your-stock-portfolio-72cc28d7
Long-Term Capital Management’s collapse 25 years ago started a habit hard to break—the ‘Fed put’

The Fed, the Stock Market, and the "Greenspan Put"
https://www.richmondfed.org/-/media/RichmondFedOrg/publications/research/econ_focus/2023/q1/federal_reserve.pdf

‘Only so much alpha in the world’: hedge funds face a reckoning
https://www.afr.com/companies/financial-services/only-so-much-alpha-in-the-world-hedge-funds-face-a-reckoning-20230828-p5dzwv
 
Black-Scholes Formula: 50 Years of the Equation that Built Wall Street
https://www.tradersmagazine.com/flashback/flash-friday-50-years-of-the-equation-that-built-wall-street/

Have misguided policies led to recent asset bubbles and boom-bust cycles? By Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 02/16/21
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/538921-have-misguided-policies-led-to-recent-asset-bubbles-and-boom-bust-cycles/ 

New era of inflation will bedevil central banks and bond markets by Vivekanand Jayakumar, The Hill - 07/01/22
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/3543857-new-era-of-inflation-will-bedevil-central-banks-and-bond-markets/

A good read:

The Downside of Databases

The Man Who Trapped Us in Databases
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/magazine/hank-asher-data.html
McKenzie Funk notes:
A world in which computers accurately collect and remember and increasingly make decisions based on every little thing you have ever done is a world in which your past is ever more determinant of your future. It’s a world tailored to who you have been and not who you plan to be, one that could perpetuate the lopsided structures we have, not promote those we want. It’s a world in which lenders and insurers charge you more if you’re poor or Black and less if you’re rich or white, and one in which advertisers and political campaigners know exactly how to press your buttons by serving ads meant just for you. It’s a more perfect feedback loop, a lifelong echo chamber, a life-size version of the Facebook News Feed. And insofar as it cripples social mobility because you’re stuck in your own pattern, it could further hasten the end of the American dream. What may be scariest is not when the machines are wrong about you — but when they’re right. 

Corrupt US Politicians and American Foreign Policy

For Egypt, Menendez Was Key to Access to Billions in U.S. Aid
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/23/world/middleeast/egypt-robert-menendez-indictment.html
When the annual allotment of up to $1.3 billion faltered even a sliver, Egypt found an ally in Senator Robert J. Menendez, who on Friday was indicted on bribery charges tied to Egypt. 

India Upgrades its Physical Infrastructure

India Spends Big on What It Needs Most to Catch Up to China
https://www.wsj.com/world/india/india-spends-big-on-what-it-needs-most-to-catch-up-to-china-198c28b4
The country is building fast in an effort to address gaps in its infrastructure that have long held back its economy

Related: 
India’s ‘Lake Man’ Relies on Ancient Methods to Ease a Water Crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/world/asia/bengaluru-india-lake-reclamation.html 

Reconsidering Dollar Dominance

The Dollar Still Has Plenty of Swagger
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/business/us-dollar-inflation-economy.html
 
How BRICS can push de-dollarization and avert a global dollar disaster
https://www.scmp.com/comment/opinion/article/3235197/how-brics-can-push-de-dollarisation-and-avert-global-dollar-disaster 

Can America Govern Itself?

The US Can’t Lead the World If It Can’t Govern Itself
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2023-09-22/us-can-t-lead-the-world-if-it-can-t-govern-itself
The biggest threat to American hegemony emanates not from Moscow or Beijing but from domestic polarization and dysfunction. 

New India-Middle East-Europe Corridor

The India-Middle East-Europe Corridor in Europe’s Indo-Pacific Strategy
https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/the-india-middle-east-europe-corridor-in-europes-indo-pacific-strategy/
 
The Geopolitics of the New India-Middle East-Europe Corridor
https://thediplomat.com/2023/09/the-geopolitics-of-the-new-india-middle-east-europe-corridor/ 

The Impact of Low-Skilled Immigration

Rebound in Immigration Comes to Economy’s Aid
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/rebound-in-immigration-comes-to-economys-aid-60769edb
Rise in foreign-born labor force boosts worker supply, eases wage pressure and aids Federal Reserve’s goal of ‘soft landing’ 

The Effect of Low‐Skilled Immigration on U.S. Prices: Evidence from CPI Data by Patricia Cortes
https://doi.org/10.1086/589756

Abstract
I exploit the large variation across U.S. cities and through time in the relative size of the low‐skilled immigrant population to estimate the causal effect of immigration on prices of nontraded goods and services. Using an instrumental variables strategy, I find that, at current immigration levels, a 10 percent increase in the share of low‐skilled immigrants in the labor force decreases the price of immigrant‐intensive services, such as housekeeping and gardening, by 2 percent. Wage equations suggest that lower wages are a likely channel through which these effects take place. However, wage effects are significantly larger for low‐skilled immigrants than for low‐skilled natives, implying that the two are imperfect substitutes.

Automation and Low-Skill Labor by Katja Mann and Dario Pozzoli

https://docs.iza.org/dp15791.pdf
Abstract
Changes in the supply of low-skill labor may affect robot adoption by firms. We test this hypothesis by exploiting an exogenous increase in the local labor supply induced by a large influx of immigrants into Danish municipalities. Using the Danish employer-employee matched dataset over the period 1995-2019, we show in a shift-share regression that a larger share of migrants in a municipality leads to fewer imports of robots at the firm-level. We rationalize this finding in a simple model of robot adoption in which robots and lowskill workers are substitutes. As many advanced economies are facing labor shortages, this paper sheds light on the future of robotization.

Stop seeing immigration as a get-rich-quick scheme for Canada’s economy

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-canada-economy-immigration-labour-shortage/

Latin America’s Growth Conundrum

Latin America’s Growth Conundrum
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/latin-america-growth-longstanding-problems-how-to-fix-by-arminio-fraga-et-al-2023-09
Since 1960, only a few countries in Latin America have narrowed the gap between their per capita income and that of the United States, while most of the region has lagged far behind. Making up for lost ground will require a coordinated effort, involving both technocratic tinkering and bold political leadership. 

Related:

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/25/opinion/latin-america-slow-growth.html

Canada's Shambolic Foreign Policy

What’s the mood in India and Canada? Two commentators on the ground weigh in.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2023/09/20/canada-india-trudeau-modi-assassination/

India’s vital economic status means Canada will be the loser if crisis escalates
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/commentary/article-indias-vital-economic-status-means-canada-will-be-the-loser-if-crisis/

Justin Trudeau brings Canada’s ties with India under increasing strain
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-justin-trudeau-brings-canadas-ties-with-india-under-increasing-strain/

Trudeau’s unwillingness to apologize speaks to Canada’s diminishment on the world stage
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/politics/article-trudeaus-unwillingness-to-apologize-speaks-to-canadas-diminishment-on/

Jamie Sarkonak: Canada a lion to India, a lamb to China
https://nationalpost.com/opinion/jamie-sarkonak-canada-a-lion-to-india-a-lamb-to-china
It is sure odd that Canada is willing to go scorched earth on another Commonwealth country with (so far) scant evidence, while doing everything it can to put out fires that China keeps lighting at our feet.

 
Omer Aziz, a former foreign policy adviser in the government of Justin Trudeau, notes:
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opinion/article-the-real-reasons-canadas-relationship-with-india-is-broken/
Canada’s political establishment is old and white, and infused with an ignorant Eurocentrism that still affects foreign policy priorities. Western Europe and the United States were our focus, and some ministers could hardly see beyond London or Berlin. There’s a reason why, along with India, relations with China, with Latin American countries, with much of Africa have deteriorated. It was a great abdication of our long-term priorities, given where we have ended up.
Canada should have at least begun to take steps to ensure our land was not used for terrorist financing – a reasonable demand, given that the overwhelming number of Canadian Sikhs are peaceful and uninterested in using violence to create a separate Sikh homeland. (Coincidentally, Khalistan is almost entirely a diaspora issue; there is little organized support, even among Sikhs in India, for a separate homeland.) By taking goodwill measures, it would have at least been possible to keep talking and find workable policy solutions. The only problem was, Mr. Trudeau did not want to lose the Sikh vote to Jagmeet Singh. So we dug in our heels.
What I saw in government was how Canada’s ethnic domestic battles were distorting our long-term foreign policy priorities, and politicians, who never understood South Asia or India anyway, were pandering in lowest-common-denominator ways in B.C. and Ontario suburbs, and playing up ethnic grievances to win votes. This was especially true within internal Liberal Party politics, meaning that we could hardly focus on foreign policy and strategy without factoring in which ridings might be lost because a certain group might be upset. Canada, as a country, has suffered great reputational damage by such thinking – and none of our allies are going to come to our help on this issue. 

Canada - A Safe Haven for Terrorists
https://www.youtube.com/live/Nt7LJfrQW3c

Trudeau's Popularity Plunges Amid Standoff with India

https://youtu.be/9GAo2my1f2U

https://youtu.be/rb_zctrlo88

Indian Bonds Get Added to JPM Global Bond Index

J.P. Morgan includes Indian government debt in global bond index
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Markets/Bonds/J.P.-Morgan-includes-Indian-government-debt-in-global-bond-index 

Related:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-09-22/what-india-in-jpmorgan-em-bond-index-means-for-rupee-debt-economy

South Korea's Free Subway Rides Offer Solace to Seniors

For South Korea’s Senior Subway Riders, the Joy Is in the Journey
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/22/world/asia/south-korea-seoul-subways-aging.html
The fare is free for those older than 65, and so some retired people spend their days riding the trains to the end of the line. 

Accounting - A Less Attractive Profession?

Job Security Isn’t Enough to Keep Many Accountants from Quitting
https://www.wsj.com/articles/accounting-quit-job-security-675fc28f 

US Labor Market - Headwinds Ahead

More Labor Strife Is Coming to the US Economy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/21/uaw-strike-the-future-of-the-us-economy-is-more-labor-strife/8872d0ae-586f-11ee-bf64-cd88fe7adc71_story.html
An uncertain economic outlook makes both workers and employers reluctant to make concessions. 

American Labor’s Real Problem: It Isn’t Productive Enough
https://www.wsj.com/economy/american-labors-real-problem-it-isnt-productive-enough-185fb9f1
Factory workers want more pay and fewer hours, but that’s at odds with what U.S. manufacturers need to regain competitiveness in the global economy. 

Can Japan Attract Skilled Workers from Abroad?

Japan to launch special investment zones where only English is needed
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Finance/Japan-to-launch-special-investment-zones-where-only-English-is-needed
Kishida unveils initiatives to attract global talent in asset management 

Japan joins Asia race for global talent

https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Japan-immigration/On-topic-Japan-joins-Asia-race-for-global-talent

India unlikely to solve Japan's labor shortage
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/Comment/India-unlikely-to-solve-Japan-s-labor-shortage
Hazarika said Japanese companies prioritize communication skills over specialized knowledge in students. One of the reasons why Indian students shy away from Japan, he said, is that challenges with the Japanese language can make it difficult to get a job here.
Japanese companies are fundamentally at a disadvantage in the competition for skilled Indian talent, Hazarika told Nikkei after Monday's event.
Google or Microsoft would pay five to 10 times as much as a Japanese company, he said.
As for low- to middle-income skilled workers, India's strong economy means they have plenty of job options there, and it is hard to imagine many choosing to go all the way to Japan, Hazarika said.

AI's Growing Impact

A flood of new AI products just arrived — whether we’re ready or not
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/09/22/new-ai-launch-google-amazon-dalle-copilot/

Google DeepMind’s AI Tool Could Pinpoint Our Genetic Faults
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/20/google-deepmind-s-ai-tool-could-pinpoint-our-genetic-faults/2e7785e8-57c7-11ee-bf64-cd88fe7adc71_story.html
AlphaMissense could allow researchers to understand which of thousands of genetic mutations are harmful. 

How Big Tech AI models nailed forecast for Hurricane Lee a week in advance
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2023/09/21/hurricane-lee-artificial-intelligence-forecasting/

OpenAI unveils better image generator, DALL-E 3, as AI arms race deepens

https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2023/09/20/openai-dall-e-image-generator/

India’s Growing Anger at Trudeau’s Canada

Indian anger against Canada grows
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/20/india-canada-killing-public-reaction/
“When Canadian truckers were protesting outside Ottawa, they froze their bank accounts, arrested their families and took them to jail,” said Deepak Shenoy, chief executive of Capitalmind, an investment firm. “These truckers are treated like terrorists. But there are actual terrorists who get political party support and walk clean in Canada. I got to call it out.”
Canada saw its Sikh diaspora grow after the 1980s, when a Sikh militancy calling for a state of Khalistan took India’s Punjab state by storm. Indians recall the bombing of a 1985 Air India flight that killed many Canadians of Indian origin. The Indian government sought the extradition of the accused mastermind, a Sikh man, and many Indians blame Canada for drawing out the investigation.
More recently, with pro-Khalistan protests in Canada, attacks on Indian diplomatic missions in San Francisco and London, and increasing threats against Indian diplomats in those Western countries, Indian authorities are beyond frustrated with their counterparts, who they believe are abusing freedom of speech”. 

Fed Rate Outlook - Higher for Longer

How the Fed Caught Wall Street Off Guard by Doing Just What Everyone Expected
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2023/09/inflation-and-bonds-how-the-fed-surprised-wall-street.html  

 

Pathways to Rewarding Careers

Is it worth going to university?

Choice of College Major Matters
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2022/09/choice-of-college-major-matters.html 
 
My take: Is the US higher education bubble about to burst?
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst
 
With millions looking for work, stigmas create a dearth of skilled tradespeople

Canada – Woke Capital of the World?

Thousands gather at rallies and counter-protests about gender identity policies in schools
https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-rallies-against-gender-ideology-in-schools-met-with-counter-protests/ 

Justin Trudeau’s Lurch to the Far Left
Canada’s woke nightmare is a vision of Britain’s future
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/29/canadas-woke-nightmare-is-a-vision-for-britains-future/
Related:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/08/31/justin-trudeau-smug-incompetence-canada-laughing-stock/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2023/09/01/jordan-peterson-podcast-canada-decline-twitter-free-speech/

Political Polarization in the West

‘A Perfect Storm for the Ambitious, Extreme Ideologue’
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/20/opinion/populism-polarization-trump-europe.html
 
Cross-Country Trends in Affective Polarization
https://scholar.harvard.edu/sites/scholar.harvard.edu/files/shapiro/files/cross-polar.pdf 

BRICS+ Path to Success

BRICS+ will benefit from opening way to free movement of workers
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/BRICS-will-benefit-from-opening-way-to-free-movement-of-workers
Member states can better absorb technology with infusions of human capital 

Partha Dasgupta on Biodiversity

Biodiversity: A Conversation with Sir Partha Dasgupta

Peak China?

We shouldn’t call ‘peak China’ just yet
https://www.ft.com/content/8a7fb1d5-bb3a-48b7-aa72-1c522fd21063
Yes, there are deep structural problems in the economy, but this is also a country with significant strengths 

Value of a Student's Life

Engineering student run over by Seattle police remembered as ‘brilliant’ and ‘full of hope’
https://www.nbcnews.com/news/asian-america/jaahnavi-kandula-remembered-tribute-rcna105262
After footage was released this week of a Seattle police officer saying 23-year-old Jaahnavi Kandula’s life “had limited value” on the night of her death, those who knew and loved her want the world to know that the opposite is true. 
Kandula was struck and killed by a different officer while she was crossing the street on Jan. 23. Officer Daniel Auderer, also the vice president of the police union, responded to the scene of the accident and was recorded on his body camera appearing to laugh about and make light of the woman's death. 
“Yeah, just write a check,” Auderer was recorded saying on a phone call. “She was 26 anyway,” he continued, getting Kandula’s age wrong. “She had limited value.” 

Geopolitics and Foreign Investment

The Global Economy Enters an Era of Upheaval
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2023-geopolitical-investments-economic-shift/
US-China tensions and the war in Ukraine are already swinging investments to like-minded countries — a sign that companies are making geopolitical bets.

Related:

https://foreignpolicy.com/2023/09/19/america-cant-stop-chinas-rise/

Academic Macro Research

Macroeconomic Research, Present and Past
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/jel.20211609
Abstract
How is macroeconomic research conducted and what is it trying to accomplish? We explore these questions using information gleaned from 1,894 articles published in 10 leading journals. The emphasis on quantitative, computation-intensive theory-based analysis has grown over the past 40 years, while the use of econometric methods to test economic hypotheses has diminished. Applied micro techniques and micro data have displaced time series methods. Market imperfections are pervasive and financial frictions have received increasing attention in the past 10 years. The frequency with which non-macro JEL codes appear in macro articles indicates a great deal of overlap between macroeconomics and other fields. 

A Job Market Puzzle

Why aren’t more people being sacked?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2023/09/17/why-arent-more-people-being-sacked
How inflation has fallen without mass job casualties 

Canadian Double Standard on Terrorism

India’s Growing Anger at Canadian Support for Terrorist Groups

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-66851075

Canada’s allies rebuff its requests to join in accusations against India
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2023/09/19/india-expels-canada-diplomat-sikh-assassination/  

Best Approaches to the Study of History

The ‘New Science of History’ Is Bunk
https://www.chronicle.com/article/history-fast-and-slow 

Life is Imperfect and the Future is Uncertain

Stop Obsessing About Having the Perfect Career Plan
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/careers/stop-obsessing-about-having-the-perfect-career-plan-fe44a54e
The paths we thought we knew are crumbling fast. Maybe it’s time to think differently about getting ahead.  

The Developing World – Stuck in a Debt Trap

Crisis and Bailout: The Tortuous Cycle Stalking Nations in Debt
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/18/business/economy/ghana-debt-imf.html
The government of Ghana is essentially bankrupt, and has turned to the International Monetary Fund for its 17th financial rescue since 1957. 

A Tragedy Is Unfolding in the Poorest Countries
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/low-income-countries-debt-distress-instability-declining-prospects-by-indermit-gill-and-m-ayhan-kose-2023-09

College Rankings: Top US Engineering Departments

Top Graduate Engineering Departments:
https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-engineering-schools/eng-rankings
Top Undergraduate Engineering Departments:
https://www.usnews.com/best-colleges/rankings/engineering-doctorate 

The Downside of a Cashless Society

Paper checks are dead. Cash is dying. Who still uses them?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2023/09/15/paper-checks-who-uses/
 
A note of caution about the withdrawal of cash
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2023/sep/17/a-note-of-caution-about-the-withdrawal-of-cash
 
How a Cashless Society Could Embolden Big Brother – The Atlantic
http://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2016/04/cashless-society/477411/
“In a cashless society, the cash has been converted into numbers, into signals, into electronic currents. In short: Information replaces cash.
Information is lightning-quick. It crosses cities, states, and national borders in the twinkle of an eye. It passes through many kinds of devices, flowing from phone to phone, and computer to computer, rather than being sealed away in those silent marble temples we used to call banks. Information never jangles uncomfortably in your pocket.
But wherever information gathers and flows, two predators follow closely behind it: censorship and surveillance. The case of digital money is no exception. Where money becomes a series of signals, it can be censored; where money becomes information, it will inform on you.”
 
The Cost of Going Cashless
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/11/13/opinion/cashless-pay-problem.html
PAMELA PAUL correctly notes:
Consumers also pay in terms of privacy. Do you want your payment app or credit card company to share exactly how many beers or Big Macs you’ve bought in the past week with its data partners, or to know every item you picked up at the pharmacy? And while a cash system is subject to crime, like employee theft and robbery, digital payments aren’t without their own risks, including double charges and identity theft.
But the most significant objection to a cashless system is whom it shuts out. Whereas cash enables everyone, no matter their age, credit history, immigration status or income, to pay directly for goods or services rather than use an intermediary, credit cards generally require a bank account.