The best bet for the 2020s is short tech, long
commodities
https://www.ft.com/content/f8e8d541-4c14-4a83-bc96-38a49a05df4f
https://www.ft.com/content/f8e8d541-4c14-4a83-bc96-38a49a05df4f
Monday, February 28, 2022
Critiques of Mainstream Economics
David Dayen offers an interesting left-wing critique of
mainstream economics:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/larry-summers-inflation.html
The shocks will only continue until we reverse course on this prevailing consensus. Democrats put their faith in an economics profession that is far too distant from on-the-ground realities to grasp the consequences of globalization, monopolization, financialization, deregulation, and just-in-time logistics. They failed to recognize how things could crumble because of the vulnerability they engineered.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/28/opinion/larry-summers-inflation.html
The shocks will only continue until we reverse course on this prevailing consensus. Democrats put their faith in an economics profession that is far too distant from on-the-ground realities to grasp the consequences of globalization, monopolization, financialization, deregulation, and just-in-time logistics. They failed to recognize how things could crumble because of the vulnerability they engineered.
My take: Fed's role in the current inflation episode should not be ignored
Can the Fed regain its credibility?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/593986-can-the-fed-regain-its-credibility
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/593986-can-the-fed-regain-its-credibility
How did the Fed get it so wrong on inflation?
My take: We should pursue pro-market rather than
pro-business policies
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/513956-to-make-capitalism-more-attractive-policymakers-must-emphasize-pro-market-not
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/513956-to-make-capitalism-more-attractive-policymakers-must-emphasize-pro-market-not
My take: We should also focus on the quality of the
government rather than its size
The debate should be about the quality – not the size – of government
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/513007-the-debate-should-be-about-the-quality-not-size-of-government
The debate should be about the quality – not the size – of government
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/513007-the-debate-should-be-about-the-quality-not-size-of-government
My take: Technological changes often drive globalization trends in the long run
How technology shapes globalization
https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/517375-how-technology-shapes-globalization
https://thehill.com/opinion/technology/517375-how-technology-shapes-globalization
Sunday, February 27, 2022
The China Challenge
Why the West's China Challenge Just Got a Lot
Harder
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/27/us-biden-china-russia-00012029
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2022/02/27/us-biden-china-russia-00012029
How Fear of China Is Forging a New World Order
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2021-02-14/china-new-world-order-enemies-my-enemy
The new U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy shows the White House is keeping its focus on the region even as it grapples with Russian aggression in Ukraine.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/25/biden-us-indo-pacific-strategy-asia-ukraine/
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2021-02-14/china-new-world-order-enemies-my-enemy
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/25/biden-us-indo-pacific-strategy-asia-ukraine/
The Eurasian Nightmare
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-02-25/eurasian-nightmare
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2022-02-25/eurasian-nightmare
The Sino-Russian alliance is now a threat to
Western tech supremacy
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/28/sino-russian-alliance-now-threat-western-tech-supremacy/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/28/sino-russian-alliance-now-threat-western-tech-supremacy/
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-remains-the-primary-threat-to-U.S.-hegemony
Asia's arms race: China spurs military spending spree
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Asia-s-arms-race-China-spurs-military-spending-spree
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Asia-s-arms-race-China-spurs-military-spending-spree
Western Media Coverage of an “European War”
‘They seem so like us’: In depicting Ukraine’s
plight, some in media use offensive comparisons
https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/02/27/media-ukraine-offensive-comparisons/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2022/02/27/media-ukraine-offensive-comparisons/
Are we Headed for a Replay of the 1970s?
Rampant inflation, foreign policy fiascoes and
failed sanctions — is America back in a national malaise?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-27/niall-ferguson-ukraine-crisis-is-turning-biden-into-jimmy-carter
A quote from President Carter’s infamous July 15, 1979 speech:
A crisis of confidence … strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation. The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America. … Our people are losing … faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-27/niall-ferguson-ukraine-crisis-is-turning-biden-into-jimmy-carter
A quote from President Carter’s infamous July 15, 1979 speech:
A crisis of confidence … strikes at the very heart and soul and spirit of our national will. We can see this crisis in the growing doubt about the meaning of our own lives and in the loss of a unity of purpose for our nation. The erosion of our confidence in the future is threatening to destroy the social and the political fabric of America. … Our people are losing … faith, not only in government itself but in the ability as citizens to serve as the ultimate rulers and shapers of our democracy.
Risk of a Nuclear Conflict
How to think about the risk of nuclear war,
according to 3 experts
https://www.vox.com/22951004/nuclear-weapons-russia-ukraine-war-putin
https://www.vox.com/22951004/nuclear-weapons-russia-ukraine-war-putin
Putin’s Nuclear Threat Is Terrifying Even If He’s
Bluffing
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-27/putin-s-nuclear-threat-is-ominous-even-if-he-s-bluffing
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-27/putin-s-nuclear-threat-is-ominous-even-if-he-s-bluffing
US Foreign Policy and the American Right
How the American Right Stopped Worrying and Learned
to Love Russia
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/opinion/ukraine-putin-steve-bannon.html
With the world watching Putin, Trump targets
Trudeau
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/27/trump-trudeau-cpac-canada-protest-00012102
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/26/trump-2024/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/27/opinion/ukraine-putin-steve-bannon.html
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/02/27/trump-trudeau-cpac-canada-protest-00012102
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/26/trump-2024/
Best US STEM Programs - 2022 Rankings
2022 Best Engineering Schools
https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-engineering-schools/eng-rankings
1. MIT
2. Stanford
3. UC Berkeley
4. Caltech, Carnegie Mellon, Purdue (3-way tie)
7. Michigan
8. Georgia Institute of Technology
9. UC San Diego
https://www.usnews.com/best-graduate-schools/top-engineering-schools/eng-rankings
1. MIT
2. Stanford
3. UC Berkeley
4. Caltech, Carnegie Mellon, Purdue (3-way tie)
7. Michigan
8. Georgia Institute of Technology
9. UC San Diego
10. Illinois
Go Boilers !!
College Education - Return on Investment (ROI)
Ranking 4,500 Colleges by ROI (2022)
https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/roi2022/
Related press release:
https://1gyhoq479ufd3yna29x7ubjn-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/GeorgetownCEW_CollegeROI_PressRelease_2-15-22.pdf
Is college worth it? In an attempt to answer this question, the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) released an online tool with updated rankings of 4,500 colleges and universities based on new College Scorecard data. CEW also analyzed a new metric that measures the share of students at an institution whose earnings 10 years after enrollment are higher than those of workers with only a high school diploma.
An average of 60% of college students across institutions earn more than a high school graduate after 10 years, the analysis finds. However, at 1,233 postsecondary institutions (30% of all colleges), more than half of students 10 years after enrollment earn less than a high school graduate. CEW’s previous research suggests that these low earnings may be related to low college graduation rates and disparities in earnings by gender and by race and ethnicity.
My take:
Is the US higher education bubble about to burst?
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst
https://cew.georgetown.edu/cew-reports/roi2022/
https://1gyhoq479ufd3yna29x7ubjn-wpengine.netdna-ssl.com/wp-content/uploads/GeorgetownCEW_CollegeROI_PressRelease_2-15-22.pdf
Is college worth it? In an attempt to answer this question, the Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce (CEW) released an online tool with updated rankings of 4,500 colleges and universities based on new College Scorecard data. CEW also analyzed a new metric that measures the share of students at an institution whose earnings 10 years after enrollment are higher than those of workers with only a high school diploma.
An average of 60% of college students across institutions earn more than a high school graduate after 10 years, the analysis finds. However, at 1,233 postsecondary institutions (30% of all colleges), more than half of students 10 years after enrollment earn less than a high school graduate. CEW’s previous research suggests that these low earnings may be related to low college graduation rates and disparities in earnings by gender and by race and ethnicity.
My take:
Is the US higher education bubble about to burst?
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst
Saturday, February 26, 2022
Geopolitics Enters a New and Complex Era
Why the US won’t send troops to Ukraine
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/2/25/22949351/ukraine-russia-us-troops-no-fly-zone-nuclear-weapons
The logic of mutually assured destruction that defined the Cold War still works, to some degree: Russia’s arsenal makes any direct intervention in Ukraine riskier than any rational American leader could tolerate. In a sense, then, Russia’s nuclear weapons make it less likely that the conflict will kick off World War III.
https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2022/2/25/22949351/ukraine-russia-us-troops-no-fly-zone-nuclear-weapons
The logic of mutually assured destruction that defined the Cold War still works, to some degree: Russia’s arsenal makes any direct intervention in Ukraine riskier than any rational American leader could tolerate. In a sense, then, Russia’s nuclear weapons make it less likely that the conflict will kick off World War III.
Why Putin invaded Ukraine
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2022/02/why-putin-invaded-ukraine
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2022/02/why-putin-invaded-ukraine
The West has finally taken the gloves off against Putin, and redeemed our honor
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/27/west-has-finally-taken-gloves-against-putin-redeemed-honour/
Putin Has Already Caused a Revolution in Germany
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-27/putin-s-invasion-of-ukraine-has-transformed-germany-s-faux-pacifism
Putin’s Refugees Will Make or Break Europe
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-26/putin-s-war-sends-millions-of-refugees-westward-in-a-challenge-to-eu-unity
U.S. should abandon ambiguity on Taiwan defense: Japan's Abe
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/U.S.-should-abandon-ambiguity-on-Taiwan-defense-Japan-s-Abe
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/27/west-has-finally-taken-gloves-against-putin-redeemed-honour/
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-27/putin-s-invasion-of-ukraine-has-transformed-germany-s-faux-pacifism
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-26/putin-s-war-sends-millions-of-refugees-westward-in-a-challenge-to-eu-unity
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/U.S.-should-abandon-ambiguity-on-Taiwan-defense-Japan-s-Abe
Clash of Civilizations
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/opinion/vladimir-putin-clash-of-civilizations.html
Russia speaks total lies. That doesn’t diminish
America’s half-truths
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/26/russia-lies-america-half-truths
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/opinion/vladimir-putin-clash-of-civilizations.html
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/26/russia-lies-america-half-truths
Chelsea Saga
Chelsea football owner Roman Abramovich and the
awkwardness of Russia sanctions
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/roman-abramovich-russia-sanctions/
Related:
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/feb/26/abramovich-hands-stewardship-and-care-of-chelsea-to-charitable-foundation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/02/26/roman-abramovich-hands-stewardship-care-chelsea-clubs-charity/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/26/roman-abramovich-russia-sanctions/
https://www.theguardian.com/football/2022/feb/26/abramovich-hands-stewardship-and-care-of-chelsea-to-charitable-foundation
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/football/2022/02/26/roman-abramovich-hands-stewardship-care-chelsea-clubs-charity/
High Energy Prices
A Stock Trader’s Guide to a World Where Oil Costs
$100 or More
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/a-stock-trader-s-guide-to-a-world-where-oil-costs-100-or-more
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-26/a-stock-trader-s-guide-to-a-world-where-oil-costs-100-or-more
Food Price Inflation
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine will likely ratchet American food prices even higher, experts say
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/26/ukraine-russia-wheat-exports/
Turkey crippled by worst strikes since 1970s as workers struggle to buy bread
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/turkey-crippled-worst-strikes-since-1970s-workers-struggle-buy/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/26/ukraine-russia-wheat-exports/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/26/turkey-crippled-worst-strikes-since-1970s-workers-struggle-buy/
Beware of food price spikes and revolutions if
Ukrainian grain deliveries are disrupted.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/22/russia-ukraine-war-grain-exports-africa-asia/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/22/russia-ukraine-war-grain-exports-africa-asia/
China-Russia Ties
Before Ukraine Invasion, Russia and China Cemented
Economic Ties
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/business/china-russia-ukraine.html
China is tying itself in knots over Ukraine
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/china-is-tying-itself-in-knots-over-ukraine
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/26/business/china-russia-ukraine.html
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/china-is-tying-itself-in-knots-over-ukraine
Bond Between China and Russia Alarms U.S. and Europe Amid Ukraine Crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/us/politics/russia-china-ukraine-biden.html
This Is the Russia-China Friendship that Nixon Feared
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/opinion/nixon-china.html
Related:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Infographic-50-years-since-Nixon-s-China-visit
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/us/politics/russia-china-ukraine-biden.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/opinion/nixon-china.html
Related:
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Infographic-50-years-since-Nixon-s-China-visit
Friday, February 25, 2022
History and Geopolitics
Fiona Hill offers useful background and context on the Russia-Ukraine conflict:
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/01/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-putin-biden.html
Russia, Ukraine and the 30-year quest for a
post-Soviet order
https://www.ft.com/content/742f15fc-675a-4622-b022-cbec444651cf
Historian Mary Elise Sarotte tells the inside story of the west’s efforts to secure a post-cold-war settlement — and how Putin seized on missteps and Russian grievances to destroy it
https://www.ft.com/content/742f15fc-675a-4622-b022-cbec444651cf
Historian Mary Elise Sarotte tells the inside story of the west’s efforts to secure a post-cold-war settlement — and how Putin seized on missteps and Russian grievances to destroy it
Many predicted Nato expansion would lead to war.
Those warnings were ignored
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/28/nato-expansion-war-russia-ukraine
For Equity Markets, Easy Money Matters More Than Geopolitical Conflict
Why the energy shock from Russia’s invasion of
Ukraine won’t wreck the stock market
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-energy-shock-from-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-wont-wreck-the-stock-market-11645792026
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/why-the-energy-shock-from-russias-invasion-of-ukraine-wont-wreck-the-stock-market-11645792026
Stocks Gain as War Spurs Pullback on Fed Rate Bets:
Markets Wrap
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/u-s-stock-jump-cooling-oil-rally-may-steady-asia-markets-wrap
U.S. equities rose for a second day as economic data and uncertainty due to Russia’s war in Ukraine caused traders to pull back on bets the Federal Reserve will aggressively hike interest rates next month.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/u-s-stock-jump-cooling-oil-rally-may-steady-asia-markets-wrap
U.S. equities rose for a second day as economic data and uncertainty due to Russia’s war in Ukraine caused traders to pull back on bets the Federal Reserve will aggressively hike interest rates next month.
Related:
Fed’s Preferred Inflation Measure Reaches Fastest Pace Since 1983
https://www.wsj.com/articles/feds-preferred-inflation-measure-reaches-fastest-pace-since-1983-11645799601
U.S. Consumer Spending Tops Forecasts Even as Inflation Jumps
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-25/u-s-consumer-spending-tops-forecasts-even-as-inflation-jumps
Will US Politics Finally Shift to the Center?
Will Democrats Throw It All Away in the 2024
Presidential Election?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-2024-presidential-election-republicans-trump-biden-approval-voting-crt-hispanic-swing-white-working-class-blue-collar-voters-11645801008
If they don’t broaden their appeal to swing voters and moderates, they’ll end up relying on Republicans to save democracy from Trump
https://www.wsj.com/articles/democrats-2024-presidential-election-republicans-trump-biden-approval-voting-crt-hispanic-swing-white-working-class-blue-collar-voters-11645801008
If they don’t broaden their appeal to swing voters and moderates, they’ll end up relying on Republicans to save democracy from Trump
Can the Political Center Reemerge in the US?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/opinion/defeat-trump-democrat-myths.html
David Brooks notes:
But Democrats also have to do something they’re really bad at: Craft a cultural narrative around the theme of social order. The Democrats have been blamed for fringe ideas like “defund the police” and a zeal for “critical race theory” because the party doesn’t have its own mainstream social and cultural narrative.
With war in Europe, crime rising on our streets, disarray at the border, social unraveling in many of our broken communities, perceived ideological unmooring in our schools, moral decay everywhere, Democrats need to tell us which cultural and moral values they stand for that will hold this country together.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/opinion/defeat-trump-democrat-myths.html
David Brooks notes:
But Democrats also have to do something they’re really bad at: Craft a cultural narrative around the theme of social order. The Democrats have been blamed for fringe ideas like “defund the police” and a zeal for “critical race theory” because the party doesn’t have its own mainstream social and cultural narrative.
With war in Europe, crime rising on our streets, disarray at the border, social unraveling in many of our broken communities, perceived ideological unmooring in our schools, moral decay everywhere, Democrats need to tell us which cultural and moral values they stand for that will hold this country together.
This Is a Moment for America to Believe in Itself Again
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/opinion/ukraine-russia-us-war.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/opinion/ukraine-russia-us-war.html
Trump Praises Putin, Leaving Republicans in a Bind:
G.O.P. leaders, while condemning Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, were silent on
comments made by the former president. Some figures on the right amplified
them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/world/europe/trump-putin-russia-ukraine.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/world/europe/trump-putin-russia-ukraine.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/02/23/republicans-putin-biden-ukraine/
The Decline and Fall of Facebook
Facebook is struggling to retain users, fending off
regulation, trying to pivot to VR, and paying a massive wage premium to attract
the workers it needs to make any of this happen. The company is on the ropes
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/24/ive-been-waiting-15-years-for-facebook-to-die-im-more-hopeful-than-ever
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/24/ive-been-waiting-15-years-for-facebook-to-die-im-more-hopeful-than-ever
Thursday, February 24, 2022
Putin's Dangerous Gamble
How Russia has triggered the return of existential dread
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2022/02/24/russia-has-triggered-return-existential-dread/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/24/greater-russia-now-full-spectrum-commodity-superpower-less-vulnerable/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2022/02/24/greater-russia-now-full-spectrum-commodity-superpower-less-vulnerable/
Russians Now See a New Side to Putin: Dragging Them
into War
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/world/europe/putin-russia-ukraine.html
Why Vladimir Putin has chosen to invade Ukraine now
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/24/vladimir-putin-has-chosen-invade-ukraine-now/
Is Putin’s gamble on Ukraine rational?
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/2/24/is-putins-gamble-on-ukraine-rational
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/02/24/vladimir-putin-has-chosen-invade-ukraine-now/
https://www.aljazeera.com/opinions/2022/2/24/is-putins-gamble-on-ukraine-rational
The Return of Geopolitics to the Centerstage
Maps: Tracking the Russian Invasion of Ukraine
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/world/europe/ukraine-maps.html
Vlad the invader: Putin is looking to rebuild
Russia’s empire
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/vlad-the-invader-putin-is-trying-to-recreate-the-tsarist-russian-empire
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/vlad-the-invader-putin-is-trying-to-recreate-the-tsarist-russian-empire
Calamity Again
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/ukraine-identity-russia-patriotism/622902/
No nation is forced to repeat its past. But something familiar is taking place in Ukraine.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/ukraine-identity-russia-patriotism/622902/
No nation is forced to repeat its past. But something familiar is taking place in Ukraine.
The West Must Show Putin How Wrong He Is to Choose
War
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/24/opinion/russia-ukraine-invasion-putin.html
Germany's Russia policy in tatters after Russian
invasion of Ukraine
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-russia-policy-in-tatters-after-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/a-60874697
https://www.dw.com/en/germanys-russia-policy-in-tatters-after-russian-invasion-of-ukraine/a-60874697
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/22/biden-russia-ukraine-sanctions-asia-allies-export-controls-invasion-plans/
World Economy Inflation Shock Set to Worsen from
Oil at $100
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/oil-at-100-set-to-compound-the-world-economy-s-inflation-shock
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/oil-at-100-set-to-compound-the-world-economy-s-inflation-shock
Russia Is Sowing Conflict in Ukraine. What Does
That Mean for the U.S. Economy?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/business/economy/russia-ukraine-global-us-economy.html
Russian incursion into Ukraine roils world markets,
and oil prices soar
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/ukraine-europe-markets-russia/
The China Angle
Beijing Could Run Russia’s Playbook on Taiwan
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/18/taiwan-ukraine-beijing-russia-invasion/
China Refuses to Condemn Russian Attack, Deflects Blame to U.S.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/china-refuses-to-condemn-russian-attack-deflects-blame-to-u-s
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/ukraine-china-russia-invasion-reaction/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/business/economy/russia-ukraine-global-us-economy.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/ukraine-europe-markets-russia/
This Is Putin’s War. But America and NATO Aren’t Innocent Bystanders.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/putin-ukraine-nato.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/putin-ukraine-nato.html
Putin warned the West 15 years ago. Now, in Ukraine, he’s poised to wage war.
Beijing Could Run Russia’s Playbook on Taiwan
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/18/taiwan-ukraine-beijing-russia-invasion/
China Refuses to Condemn Russian Attack, Deflects Blame to U.S.
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-24/china-refuses-to-condemn-russian-attack-deflects-blame-to-u-s
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/24/ukraine-china-russia-invasion-reaction/
Wednesday, February 23, 2022
CBDCs and Crypto Sector Regulation
As the Fed considers minting the first digital
dollar, it is tapping experts from a crypto company with a stake in the outcome
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/23/boston-fed-circle/
Russia Could Use Cryptocurrency to Blunt the Force of
U.S. Sanctions
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/business/russia-sanctions-cryptocurrency.html
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/23/boston-fed-circle/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/business/russia-sanctions-cryptocurrency.html
China Turns Inwards (Again)
How China Under Xi Jinping Is Turning Away from the
World
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/asia/china-xi-jinping-world.html
500 years ago, China destroyed its world-dominating
navy because its political elite was afraid of free trade
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/500-years-ago-china-destroyed-its-worlddominating-navy-because-its-political-elite-was-afraid-of-free-trade-a7612276.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/world/asia/china-xi-jinping-world.html
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/500-years-ago-china-destroyed-its-worlddominating-navy-because-its-political-elite-was-afraid-of-free-trade-a7612276.html
US Labor Market is Very Tight
U.S. Labor Market Is Even Tighter Based on
Alternative Measures
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/u-s-labor-market-is-even-tighter-based-on-alternative-measures
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/u-s-labor-market-is-even-tighter-based-on-alternative-measures
My warning from last year:
The Fed's risky quest for maximum employment
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/568134-the-feds-risky-quest-for-maximum-employment
The Fed's risky quest for maximum employment
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/568134-the-feds-risky-quest-for-maximum-employment
Stock Market Reaches Correction Territory
More Trouble for a Troubled Market
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/business/stock-market-correction.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/23/business/stock-market-correction.html
The S&P 500 Entered a Correction. Here’s What History Says Happens Next.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-correction-sp500-51645571253
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stock-market-correction-sp500-51645571253
Stocks hit correction territory as governments announce sanctions against Russia.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/business/stocks-bonds-russia-ukraine.html
The Russia-Ukraine Crisis Is Shaking Markets and Portfolios
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/business/russia-ukraine-markets.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/business/stocks-bonds-russia-ukraine.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/business/russia-ukraine-markets.html
Beaten Down Stocks/Sectors:
Tesla Is Just One Reason Why Stocks Are Actually 21% Cheaper Now
https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-stocks-are-now-cheaper-due-largely-to-these-drops/
Nine Beaten-Down Stocks Must Jump 100% Just to Get Your Money Back
https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-big-stocks-must-jump-100-just-to-get-your-money-back/
Tesla Is Just One Reason Why Stocks Are Actually 21% Cheaper Now
https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-stocks-are-now-cheaper-due-largely-to-these-drops/
Nine Beaten-Down Stocks Must Jump 100% Just to Get Your Money Back
https://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/sectors/sp500-big-stocks-must-jump-100-just-to-get-your-money-back/
Energy/Commodity Price Shock
Three Theories for Why Gas Prices Are So High
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/02/why-gas-got-so-expensive/622887/
Inflation-Obsessed Investors Can’t Get Enough of
Commodities
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/inflation-obsessed-investors-can-t-get-enough-of-commodities
The Coming Energy Shock
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/energy-crisis-russia-gas/622884/
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2022/02/why-gas-got-so-expensive/622887/
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-23/inflation-obsessed-investors-can-t-get-enough-of-commodities
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/energy-crisis-russia-gas/622884/
The West’s Delusion of Energy Independence
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-energy-conflict.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/22/opinion/russia-ukraine-energy-conflict.html
Related:
Rising Economic Discontent
Why This Economic Boom Can’t Lift America’s Spirits
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-this-economic-boom-cant-lift-americas-spirits-11645544670
https://www.wsj.com/articles/why-this-economic-boom-cant-lift-americas-spirits-11645544670
Why the poor suffer most from inflation, even though their wages have risen a lot
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/22/inflation-hitting-poor-households-hardest-catherine-rampell/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/22/inflation-hitting-poor-households-hardest-catherine-rampell/
Two years into the pandemic, America has become the
land of the bulging bank accounts
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/23/savings-bank-accounts-covid/
But for some, the savings cushion is looking threadbare
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/23/savings-bank-accounts-covid/
But for some, the savings cushion is looking threadbare
Adapting to Rising Sea Levels
How can we adapt to life with rising seas?
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/feb/21/the-big-idea-how-can-we-adapt-to-life-with-rising-seas
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2022/feb/21/the-big-idea-how-can-we-adapt-to-life-with-rising-seas
Sea level to rise one foot along U.S. coastlines by 2050, government report finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/02/15/sea-level-rise-2050-climate/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2022/02/15/sea-level-rise-2050-climate/
The price of living near the shore is already high. It’s about to go through the roof.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/10/01/price-living-near-shore-is-already-high-its-about-go-through-roof/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/10/01/price-living-near-shore-is-already-high-its-about-go-through-roof/
The Cost of Insuring Expensive Waterfront Homes Is About to Skyrocket
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/24/climate/federal-flood-insurance-cost.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/24/climate/federal-flood-insurance-cost.html
In Florida, Coastal Counties Fuel Population Rise—and Climate Concerns
Growth along the shorelines means more people face risks from rising sea levels and severe-weather events
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-florida-coastal-counties-fuel-population-riseand-climate-concerns-11631631600
Growth along the shorelines means more people face risks from rising sea levels and severe-weather events
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-florida-coastal-counties-fuel-population-riseand-climate-concerns-11631631600
In Manila and San Francisco, Rising Seas Are a Crisis Right Now
Religion and Politics - Rising Tensions in South Asia
Food aplenty in Kabul's shops, but few buyers
https://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Life/Food-aplenty-in-Kabul-s-shops-but-few-buyers
Taliban makes women cover up, while its soldiers chase anti-lice creams
Professional women of Kabul rail against Taliban-imposed restrictions
https://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Life/Professional-women-of-Kabul-rail-against-Taliban-imposed-restrictions
https://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Life/Food-aplenty-in-Kabul-s-shops-but-few-buyers
Taliban makes women cover up, while its soldiers chase anti-lice creams
Professional women of Kabul rail against Taliban-imposed restrictions
https://asia.nikkei.com/Life-Arts/Life/Professional-women-of-Kabul-rail-against-Taliban-imposed-restrictions
After 20 years of supporting the Taliban in
Afghanistan, Pakistan finds the tables are turning as militancy comes home.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/22/pakistan-taliban-terrorism-militant-groups/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/02/22/pakistan-taliban-terrorism-militant-groups/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/15/pakistan-qandeel-baloch-brother-honor-killing-acquittal/
Understanding the history and politics behind Pakistan’s blasphemy laws
https://theconversation.com/understanding-the-history-and-politics-behind-pakistans-blasphemy-laws-173570
Related:
https://thediplomat.com/2021/12/the-dilemma-over-the-blasphemy-law-in-pakistan/
The mob killing of a factory manager in Pakistan comes amid surge in anti-blasphemy violence
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/12/24/pakistan-blasphemy-violence-labbaik/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-hijab-debate-hindu-nationalist-muslim-majority-modi-secularism-bjp-religious-liberty-feminism-sexism-11645117668
Austria, Denmark, France, Belgium, Bulgaria, Netherlands, China, Sri Lanka, and Switzerland are among the countries that have banned face veils.
https://www.indiatvnews.com/news/india/karnataka-hijab-controversy-udupi-women-pre-university-college-muslim-girls-students-agitation-list-of-countries-banned-hijab-headscarf-burqa-2022-02-11-759072
Tuesday, February 22, 2022
The New Era of Global Disorder
The rise of the rest makes for anxiety in the West
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2022/02/22/commentary/japan-commentary/less-western-world/
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2022/02/22/commentary/japan-commentary/less-western-world/
Expect the world's ungoverned places to export
instability
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Expect-the-world-s-ungoverned-places-to-export-instability
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Expect-the-world-s-ungoverned-places-to-export-instability
This Is Putin’s War. But America and NATO Aren’t
Innocent Bystanders.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/putin-ukraine-nato.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/21/opinion/putin-ukraine-nato.html
What we can expect after Putin’s conquest of
Ukraine
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/21/ukraine-invasion-putin-goals-what-expect/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/21/ukraine-invasion-putin-goals-what-expect/
Putin warned the West 15 years ago. Now, in Ukraine, he’s poised to wage war.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/20/putin-ukraine-nato-2007-munich-conference/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/03/america-led-hypersonic-technology-then-other-countries-sped-past/
Big Pharma and the High Cost of US Healthcare
This Is How Big Pharma Wins
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/02/this-is-how-big-pharma-wins.html
Two years into the pandemic, the industry has evaded reforms a supermajority of voters want.
My take:
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/591995-health-care-and-higher-education-key-drivers-of-long-term-inflation
There is a role for well-thought-out fiscal interventions to boost efficiency and competition in the health care sector. Reforming the U.S. patent system and making the federal government a more effective negotiator that can leverage its role as a large-scale purchaser to attain lower pharmaceutical drug prices are low hanging fruit that can be plucked with bipartisan support if the Big Pharma lobby can be kept at bay.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/02/this-is-how-big-pharma-wins.html
Two years into the pandemic, the industry has evaded reforms a supermajority of voters want.
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/591995-health-care-and-higher-education-key-drivers-of-long-term-inflation
There is a role for well-thought-out fiscal interventions to boost efficiency and competition in the health care sector. Reforming the U.S. patent system and making the federal government a more effective negotiator that can leverage its role as a large-scale purchaser to attain lower pharmaceutical drug prices are low hanging fruit that can be plucked with bipartisan support if the Big Pharma lobby can be kept at bay.
Monday, February 21, 2022
Dominican Republic versus Haiti
Dominican Republic starts building Haiti border
wall
https://www.dw.com/en/dominican-republic-starts-building-haiti-border-wall/a-60851233
The wall will cover almost half of the border between the two countries. Many Haitians cross the border in search of work in the fields or in the construction industry in the Dominican Republic.
Haiti vs. the Dominican Republic: Why the big
divergence?
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/haiti-vs-the-dominican-republic
Related:
https://www.vox.com/a/borders/haiti-dominican-republic
https://www.dw.com/en/dominican-republic-starts-building-haiti-border-wall/a-60851233
The wall will cover almost half of the border between the two countries. Many Haitians cross the border in search of work in the fields or in the construction industry in the Dominican Republic.
https://noahpinion.substack.com/p/haiti-vs-the-dominican-republic
https://www.vox.com/a/borders/haiti-dominican-republic
Return-to-the-Office Debate
Who Will Win the Great Return-to-the-Office
Face-Off?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-21/who-will-win-the-great-return-to-the-office-face-off
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-21/who-will-win-the-great-return-to-the-office-face-off
Corporate America is coming around to remote work. But more big changes lie ahead.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/15/remote-work-omicron/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/01/15/remote-work-omicron/
Greenwashing and ESG
The great greenwashing scam: PR firms face
reckoning after spinning for big oil
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/18/greenwashing-pr-advertising-oil-firms-exxon-chevron-shell-bp
Green investing: the risk of a new mis-selling
scandal
https://www.ft.com/content/ae78c05a-0481-4774-8f9b-d3f02e4f2c6f
ESG funds are popular, but research has found the sector is rife with greenwashing. Lawyers warn a reckoning is coming
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2022/feb/18/greenwashing-pr-advertising-oil-firms-exxon-chevron-shell-bp
https://www.ft.com/content/ae78c05a-0481-4774-8f9b-d3f02e4f2c6f
ESG funds are popular, but research has found the sector is rife with greenwashing. Lawyers warn a reckoning is coming
Sunday, February 20, 2022
Decline of San Francisco
San Francisco is decaying
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/san-francisco-is-decaying
The school board recalls that shook San Francisco
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-school-board-recalls-that-shook-san-francisco
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/san-francisco-is-decaying
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/the-school-board-recalls-that-shook-san-francisco
Fed and the US Economy: Increasing Odds of a Hard Landing
The Federal Reserve Is Veering Toward a Hard
Landing
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-20/federal-reserve-is-veering-toward-a-hard-economic-landing
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-20/federal-reserve-is-veering-toward-a-hard-economic-landing
The Fed Doesn’t Have a Playbook to Tame Inflation While Avoiding a Recession
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-is-scrambling-to-tame-inflation-while-avoiding-a-recession-51645229935
The Fed Missed Inflation. Can Jay Powell Tame It Without Causing a Recession?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-the-feds-slow-pivot-to-tackling-inflation-11644930180
https://www.barrons.com/articles/the-fed-is-scrambling-to-tame-inflation-while-avoiding-a-recession-51645229935
The Fed Missed Inflation. Can Jay Powell Tame It Without Causing a Recession?
https://www.wsj.com/articles/behind-the-feds-slow-pivot-to-tackling-inflation-11644930180
My take:
Can the Fed regain its credibility?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/593986-can-the-fed-regain-its-credibility
Can the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing for the US economy?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/587953-can-the-federal-reserve-engineer-a-soft-landing-for-the-us-economy
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/593986-can-the-fed-regain-its-credibility
Can the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing for the US economy?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/587953-can-the-federal-reserve-engineer-a-soft-landing-for-the-us-economy
Housing Market Boom - Spillover Effects
The Next Affordable City Is Already Too Expensive
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/business/economy/spokane-housing-expensive-cities.html
In Spokane, Wash., home prices jumped 60 percent in the past two years. The increase is fueled by buyers fleeing the boom in cities like Austin. Who will have to flee next?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/20/business/economy/spokane-housing-expensive-cities.html
In Spokane, Wash., home prices jumped 60 percent in the past two years. The increase is fueled by buyers fleeing the boom in cities like Austin. Who will have to flee next?
NFTs - Hype versus Reality
What is DeFi? Everything you need to know about the
future of decentralized finance
https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-defi-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-future-of-decentralised-finance/
https://www.zdnet.com/article/what-is-defi-everything-you-need-to-know-about-the-future-of-decentralised-finance/
NFT Bubble
Celebrities and NFTs Are a Match Made in Hell
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2022/02/nft-jimmy-fallon-paris-hilton-millionaire/621486/
The Curious World of NFT Real Estate and Design
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/25/fashion/selling-virtual-real-estate.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/05/25/fashion/selling-virtual-real-estate.html
NFTs Are the Latest Investing Mania—and They’re Here to Stay
https://www.barrons.com/articles/nfts-are-the-latest-investing-maniaand-theyre-here-to-stay-51616168036
https://www.barrons.com/articles/nfts-are-the-latest-investing-maniaand-theyre-here-to-stay-51616168036
Investing for the Long-Run
A record number of workers are becoming
millionaires with their boring 401(k)s and IRAs.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/18/fidelity-401k-millionaires/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2022/02/18/fidelity-401k-millionaires/
Unions and Bargaining Power
Why Gains for U.S. Workers Are Good for the World
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/20/us-workers-wages-unions-trade/
A Rhodes scholar barista and the fight to unionize Starbucks
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/02/12/rhodes-scholar-barista-fight-unionize-starbucks/
Some U.S. Apple Store employees are working to
unionize, part of a growing worker backlash
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/18/apple-retail-stores-union-labor/
https://foreignpolicy.com/2022/01/20/us-workers-wages-unions-trade/
A Rhodes scholar barista and the fight to unionize Starbucks
https://www.washingtonpost.com/nation/2022/02/12/rhodes-scholar-barista-fight-unionize-starbucks/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2022/02/18/apple-retail-stores-union-labor/
Saturday, February 19, 2022
Is the West Focused on the Wrong Threat?
Behind Xi Jinping’s Great Wall of Iron
https://www.newstatesman.com/uyghur-special/2022/02/behind-xi-jinpings-great-wall-of-iron
Why China is intensifying its military flights
against Taiwan
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Why-China-is-intensifying-its-military-flights-against-Taiwan
https://www.newstatesman.com/uyghur-special/2022/02/behind-xi-jinpings-great-wall-of-iron
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Why-China-is-intensifying-its-military-flights-against-Taiwan
America Is Focusing on the Wrong Enemy
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-threat-to-us-global-leadership-is-china-not-russia-by-brahma-chellaney-2022-02
US President Joe Biden is treating a “rogue” Russia as a peer competitor, when he should be focused on the challenge from America’s actual peer, China. Not only is China more powerful than Russia; it also genuinely seeks to supplant the US as the preeminent global power.
China’s Nuclear Coming-Out Party
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/china-russia-nuclear-weapons/622089/
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-threat-to-us-global-leadership-is-china-not-russia-by-brahma-chellaney-2022-02
US President Joe Biden is treating a “rogue” Russia as a peer competitor, when he should be focused on the challenge from America’s actual peer, China. Not only is China more powerful than Russia; it also genuinely seeks to supplant the US as the preeminent global power.
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2022/02/china-russia-nuclear-weapons/622089/
China Is Showing Off the Digital Yuan at the Olympics. Can the U.S. Compete?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/china-is-showing-off-its-central-bank-digital-yuan-currency-at-beijing-olympics
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/china-is-showing-off-its-central-bank-digital-yuan-currency-at-beijing-olympics
https://www.bloomberg.com/graphics/2022-china-nationalistic-online-shoppers/
Tracking India's Economic Growth and Development
Tracking Development through Satellite Images and
Cartography
The Metaverse Hype
Living in an immaterial world
The metaverse promises infinite new realms just as tangible as the one we will leave behind.
https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2022/02/living-in-an-immaterial-world
A simulation is a substitute for an experience in reality, made usually in its absence, but it may come to usurp reality’s place. It may become more real than reality.
The metaverse promises infinite new realms just as tangible as the one we will leave behind.
https://www.newstatesman.com/culture/books/2022/02/living-in-an-immaterial-world
A simulation is a substitute for an experience in reality, made usually in its absence, but it may come to usurp reality’s place. It may become more real than reality.
Should the Fed Have a Green Mandate?
Biden’s Fed choice is wrong about climate policy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/17/biden-banking-cop-sarah-bloom-raskin-wrong-on-climate/
The Case Against Green Central Banking
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/against-green-central-banking-by-willem-h-buiter-2021-11
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/17/biden-banking-cop-sarah-bloom-raskin-wrong-on-climate/
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/against-green-central-banking-by-willem-h-buiter-2021-11
International Affairs - 2/19
How the UK’s “golden visa” system has favored
Russian and Chinese investors
https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/02/how-the-uks-golden-visa-system-has-favoured-russian-and-chinese-investors
https://www.newstatesman.com/chart-of-the-day/2022/02/how-the-uks-golden-visa-system-has-favoured-russian-and-chinese-investors
Africa may have been hit harder by covid-19 than
anyone knew
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/18/africa-covid-cases-number-study/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/18/africa-covid-cases-number-study/
Thousands of ancient idols have been stolen from
India. Volunteer art sleuths are on the hunt to repatriate them.
A journey by high-speed train offers a window on
the nation’s future, as well as some of the past it would like to leave behind.
A Pakistani man murdered his social media star
sister in an ‘honor killing.’ Their parents pardoned him.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/15/pakistan-qandeel-baloch-brother-honor-killing-acquittal/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/02/15/pakistan-qandeel-baloch-brother-honor-killing-acquittal/
Economics of Higher Education - Post-Pandemic Trends
US college enrollment another victim of COVID?
https://www.dw.com/en/finding-a-good-job-why-are-american-students-skipping-college/a-60767851
For a decade, US student enrollment numbers in undergraduate programs have been headed down. With wages up, ever more would-be students seem attracted to paychecks rather than higher education.
Climb or Die: When the college enrollment crisis
comes, many small private colleges won’t survive.
https://medium.com/georgetown-cew/climb-or-die-fe4d7450b4de
With elite private colleges and public college systems likely to withstand the enrollment cliff, smaller, less-selective private colleges will be left to compete for a shrinking pool of applicants. Colleges need to offer students prestige or career preparation, or have a large endowment or unique niche, to have a competitive advantage. Many small private colleges in areas of declining populations have none of these attributes. They are more or less interchangeable in the eyes of prospective students, and some will not succeed in a crowded field.
https://www.dw.com/en/finding-a-good-job-why-are-american-students-skipping-college/a-60767851
For a decade, US student enrollment numbers in undergraduate programs have been headed down. With wages up, ever more would-be students seem attracted to paychecks rather than higher education.
https://medium.com/georgetown-cew/climb-or-die-fe4d7450b4de
With elite private colleges and public college systems likely to withstand the enrollment cliff, smaller, less-selective private colleges will be left to compete for a shrinking pool of applicants. Colleges need to offer students prestige or career preparation, or have a large endowment or unique niche, to have a competitive advantage. Many small private colleges in areas of declining populations have none of these attributes. They are more or less interchangeable in the eyes of prospective students, and some will not succeed in a crowded field.
College endowments aren’t piggy banks. But some
experts say wealthy schools could spend more.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/02/19/wealthy-university-endowments/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2022/02/19/wealthy-university-endowments/
Is the US higher education bubble about to burst?
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/590971-will-the-us-higher-education-bubble-finally-burst
Does US higher education need fundamental reforms
to survive and thrive? [with B. Kench]
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/534350-does-us-higher-education-need-fundamental-reforms-to-survive-and-thrive
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/534350-does-us-higher-education-need-fundamental-reforms-to-survive-and-thrive
The COVID-19 shock may fundamentally alter the
economics of private colleges [07/27/20]
https://thehill.com/opinion/education/509101-the-covid-19-shock-may-fundamentally-alter-the-economics-of-privateEconomic Recovery After the Omicron Wave
Pandemic’s Economic Impact Is Easing, but
Aftershocks May Linger
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/business/covid-economy.html
States are lifting mask mandates, and demand is bouncing back quickly after Omicron. Supply constraints are proving harder to escape.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/19/business/covid-economy.html
States are lifting mask mandates, and demand is bouncing back quickly after Omicron. Supply constraints are proving harder to escape.
Renewed Interest in the Fiscal Theory of Price Level
How Government Spending Fuels Inflation
https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-spending-fuels-inflation-covid-relief-pandemic-debt-federal-reserve-stimulus-powell-biden-stagflation-11645202057
Has the pandemic shown inflation to be a fiscal
phenomenon?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/12/18/has-the-pandemic-shown-inflation-to-be-a-fiscal-phenomenon
https://www.wsj.com/articles/government-spending-fuels-inflation-covid-relief-pandemic-debt-federal-reserve-stimulus-powell-biden-stagflation-11645202057
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/12/18/has-the-pandemic-shown-inflation-to-be-a-fiscal-phenomenon
Push Back Against Far-Left Policies in California
The Meaning of San Francisco’s School-Board Recall
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/meaning-san-franciscos-school-board-recall/622854/
San Francisco Schools the Left
https://www.wsj.com/articles/san-francisco-school-board-teachers-elections-recall-vote-racist-woke-closures-remote-learning-crt-11645130926
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2022/02/meaning-san-franciscos-school-board-recall/622854/
https://www.wsj.com/articles/san-francisco-school-board-teachers-elections-recall-vote-racist-woke-closures-remote-learning-crt-11645130926
Friday, February 18, 2022
History Lesson: Liberalism versus Authoritarianism
The Dark Century by David Brooks
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/opinion/liberalism-democracy-russia-ukraine.html
Brooks:
If people are naturally good we no longer have to do the hard agricultural work of cultivating virtuous citizens or fighting against human frailty. The Western advisers I covered in Russia in the early 1990s thought a lot about privatization and market reforms and very little about how to prevent greedy monsters from stealing the whole country. They had a naïve view of human nature.
Even in America, over the past decades, the institutions that earlier generations thought were essential to molding a democratic citizenry have withered or malfunctioned. Many churches and media outlets have gone partisan. Civics education has receded. Neighborhood organizations have shrunk. Patriotic rituals are out of fashion.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/opinion/liberalism-democracy-russia-ukraine.html
Brooks:
If people are naturally good we no longer have to do the hard agricultural work of cultivating virtuous citizens or fighting against human frailty. The Western advisers I covered in Russia in the early 1990s thought a lot about privatization and market reforms and very little about how to prevent greedy monsters from stealing the whole country. They had a naïve view of human nature.
Even in America, over the past decades, the institutions that earlier generations thought were essential to molding a democratic citizenry have withered or malfunctioned. Many churches and media outlets have gone partisan. Civics education has receded. Neighborhood organizations have shrunk. Patriotic rituals are out of fashion.
Consequential Demographic Shifts
The Great Resignation is also the Great Retirement
of the baby boomers. That’s a problem.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/18/great-resignation-is-also-great-retirement-baby-boomers-thats-problem/
An aging China poses new challenges
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2022/01/21/editorials/china-aging-problem/
The Asian giant's birth rate hit a record low in 2021, falling for a fifth consecutive year
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/18/great-resignation-is-also-great-retirement-baby-boomers-thats-problem/
https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2022/01/21/editorials/china-aging-problem/
The Asian giant's birth rate hit a record low in 2021, falling for a fifth consecutive year
The Future of Global Population
https://www.nationalaffairs.com/storage/app/uploads/public/61c/7df/30e/61c7df30e0c13266181399.pdf
https://www.nationalaffairs.com/storage/app/uploads/public/61c/7df/30e/61c7df30e0c13266181399.pdf
Thursday, February 17, 2022
Silicon Valley and Venture Capital
How a forgotten venture capitalist kick-started
Silicon Valley
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/27/silicon-valley-invention-venture-capital-sebastian-mallaby-book/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/01/27/silicon-valley-invention-venture-capital-sebastian-mallaby-book/
Inflation and Monetary Policy - Key Debates
Fed Needs to Hike to Slow Inflation Without
Recession, Credit Suisse Says
Could Wages and Prices Spiral Upward in America?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/business/economy/wages-price-spiral.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/business/economy/wages-price-spiral.html
The 2% Inflation Target Should Be Consigned to
History
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-18/the-2-inflation-target-should-be-consigned-to-history
U.S. Treasury's Golden Fed Goose Is About to Get Cooked
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-17/the-federal-reserve-s-impending-profit-squeeze
Why Central Banks Are Getting Inflation So Wrong
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-17/oil-the-reason-central-banks-keep-getting-inflation-wrong
Inflation Will Be Exactly What People Expect It to Be
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-15/where-is-inflation-headed-exactly-where-people-expect-it-to-go
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-18/the-2-inflation-target-should-be-consigned-to-history
U.S. Treasury's Golden Fed Goose Is About to Get Cooked
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-17/the-federal-reserve-s-impending-profit-squeeze
Why Central Banks Are Getting Inflation So Wrong
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-17/oil-the-reason-central-banks-keep-getting-inflation-wrong
Inflation Will Be Exactly What People Expect It to Be
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2022-02-15/where-is-inflation-headed-exactly-where-people-expect-it-to-go
Biden Keeps Blaming the Supply Chain for Inflation. That’s Dishonest.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/opinion/inflation-supply-chain.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/opinion/inflation-supply-chain.html
Can the Fed regain its credibility?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/593986-can-the-fed-regain-its-credibility
Can the Federal Reserve engineer a soft landing for the US economy?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/587953-can-the-federal-reserve-engineer-a-soft-landing-for-the-us-economy
History Lesson: Plagues and Labor Shocks in Medieval Europe
In Medieval Europe, a Pandemic Changed Work
Forever. Can It Happen Again?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/opinion/sunday/covid-plague-work-labor.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/opinion/sunday/covid-plague-work-labor.html
Future of Intel – America’s Most Important Chip Company
Intel’s True Believer
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/technology/intel-ceo-patrick-gelsinger.html
Patrick Gelsinger is back running a company he first joined at 18. The chip maker was a Silicon Valley titan that lost its luster. As the world craves chips, can Intel make its comeback?
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/17/technology/intel-ceo-patrick-gelsinger.html
Patrick Gelsinger is back running a company he first joined at 18. The chip maker was a Silicon Valley titan that lost its luster. As the world craves chips, can Intel make its comeback?
Wednesday, February 16, 2022
A Global Inflation Shock
The rise in global inflation – the hit to living
standards across the world
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/10/the-rise-in-global-inflation-the-hit-to-living-standards-across-the-world
https://www.theguardian.com/business/2022/feb/10/the-rise-in-global-inflation-the-hit-to-living-standards-across-the-world
The Return of Global Inflation
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/return-of-global-inflation-by-carmen-reinhart-and-clemens-graf-von-luckner-2022-02
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/return-of-global-inflation-by-carmen-reinhart-and-clemens-graf-von-luckner-2022-02
Soaring Inflation Means Britons Face Biggest Fall in Real Incomes in 30 Years
Tech Hiring
Tech Companies Face a Fresh Crisis: Hiring
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/magazine/tech-company-recruiters.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/16/magazine/tech-company-recruiters.html
Meanwhile in Argentina,
Hidden Brain Drain Threatens Argentina’s Recovery
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-16/skilled-tech-workers-freelancing-remotely-threaten-argentina-s-fragile-recovery
The country’s tech-savvy workers are trading salaried jobs in pesos for off-the-books gig work paid in dollars.
Hidden Brain Drain Threatens Argentina’s Recovery
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-16/skilled-tech-workers-freelancing-remotely-threaten-argentina-s-fragile-recovery
The country’s tech-savvy workers are trading salaried jobs in pesos for off-the-books gig work paid in dollars.
Tuesday, February 15, 2022
US Housing Market - Still Too Hot
Out-of-Town Home Buyers Will Pay 30% More Than
Locals in Hottest U.S. Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/top-10-most-competitive-housing-markets-where-out-of-towners-outspend-locals
4 Bed, 3 Bath, No Garage Door: The Unlikely Woes
Holding Up Home Building
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/upshot/homes-garage-door-shortage.html
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/top-10-most-competitive-housing-markets-where-out-of-towners-outspend-locals
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/upshot/homes-garage-door-shortage.html
Renting a Home Is Even Harder Than Buying One in Unrelentingly Hot U.S. Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-15/how-much-are-home-rents-rising-prices-surge-by-record-in-hot-us-housing-market
Will Workers Come Back?
The Age of Anti-Ambition
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/magazine/anti-ambition-age.html
When 25 million people leave their jobs, it’s about more than just burnout.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/15/magazine/anti-ambition-age.html
When 25 million people leave their jobs, it’s about more than just burnout.
Monday, February 14, 2022
Rethinking Urban Economics
Cities aren’t facing up to their ‘long covid’
crisis: Downtown is in deep trouble
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/13/cities-arent-facing-up-their-long-covid-crisis-downtown-is-deep-trouble/
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/13/cities-arent-facing-up-their-long-covid-crisis-downtown-is-deep-trouble/
Far From the Big City, New Economic Life
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/12/business/economy/small-town-living-standard.html
Big cities are not that good a deal for even highly educated workers. They do earn much higher wages in New York than in Cookeville — indeed, the college educated reap a bigger pay premium if they work in bigger cities than their less-educated peers. But according to the researchers, all the extra wages are eaten up by higher costs.
A Silicon Valley voice for the heartland
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/13/ro-khanna-book-silicon-valley-spread-tech-wealth/
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/12/business/economy/small-town-living-standard.html
Big cities are not that good a deal for even highly educated workers. They do earn much higher wages in New York than in Cookeville — indeed, the college educated reap a bigger pay premium if they work in bigger cities than their less-educated peers. But according to the researchers, all the extra wages are eaten up by higher costs.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/13/ro-khanna-book-silicon-valley-spread-tech-wealth/
Money, Power, and Politics in America
The Right’s Would-Be Kingmaker
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/14/technology/republican-trump-peter-thiel.html
Peter Thiel, one of Donald J. Trump’s biggest donors in 2016, has re-emerged as a prime financier of the Make America Great Again movement.
A sharp critique from the political left:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/13/us-republicans-oligarchs-economics-nationalism
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/02/14/technology/republican-trump-peter-thiel.html
Peter Thiel, one of Donald J. Trump’s biggest donors in 2016, has re-emerged as a prime financier of the Make America Great Again movement.
A sharp critique from the political left:
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/13/us-republicans-oligarchs-economics-nationalism
Will Congress take the bold step of barring its members from trading stocks?
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/01/congress-stock-trading-ban/621402/
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2022/01/congress-stock-trading-ban/621402/
Democrats Decried Dark Money. Then They Won with It in 2020.
Sunday, February 13, 2022
Fusion Energy - Feasible?
The power of stars to meet our energy needs? This
is something to be excited about
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/13/power-stars-energy-needs-fusion-energy-industry
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/13/power-stars-energy-needs-fusion-energy-industry
Carry Trade and Monetary Regime Shifts
The Carry Trade Is Faltering, Just as It Began to
Deliver Gains
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-13/the-carry-trade-is-faltering-just-as-it-began-to-deliver-gains
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2022-02-13/the-carry-trade-is-faltering-just-as-it-began-to-deliver-gains
Myths in Indo-European Cultures
This god shoots love darts – but no, it’s not Cupid
https://theconversation.com/this-god-shoots-love-darts-but-no-its-not-cupid-176685
Professor Long notes:
What is less well known in the Western world is that Eros has a Hindu equivalent: Kamadeva, the Hindu god of love, desire and infatuation. Indeed, as a scholar of Indic traditions, I find that there are often parallels between the sacred stories of Hindu deities and those found in cultures around the world, particularly Indo-European ones.
https://theconversation.com/this-god-shoots-love-darts-but-no-its-not-cupid-176685
Professor Long notes:
What is less well known in the Western world is that Eros has a Hindu equivalent: Kamadeva, the Hindu god of love, desire and infatuation. Indeed, as a scholar of Indic traditions, I find that there are often parallels between the sacred stories of Hindu deities and those found in cultures around the world, particularly Indo-European ones.
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