Wall Street Optimism

Wall Street Sees Nothing but Good News, Even When It’s Bad
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/31/business/stock-market-record.html
With expectations that interest rates will stay down and government spending will stay up, the stock market has learned to live with the pandemic, even as cases increase.

Why Fidelity Hiring 9,000 People Is a Warning for Stocks
Wall Street is known for hiring at the top and firing at the bottom.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-01/why-fidelity-hiring-9-000-people-is-a-warning-for-stocks 

Related:

What You’ve Lost in This Bull Market
https://www.wsj.com/articles/what-youve-lost-in-this-bull-market-11630677610

US Housing Market - Still Going Strong

Home Prices in Three U.S. Cities Have Jumped 25% or More in a Year
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-09-01/where-home-prices-are-rising-the-most-us-cities-seeing-over-25-spike

Home-Price Gains Set Another Record, Fueled by Bidding Wars
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-31/u-s-home-price-gains-set-another-record-fueled-by-bidding-wars

My Take:

Is the US housing boom a cause for concern?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/550331-is-the-us-housing-boom-a-cause-for-concern

A Dangerous Shift Towards Illiberalism

THE NEW PURITANS
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2021/10/new-puritans-mob-justice-canceled/619818/
A growing illiberalism, fueled by social media, is trampling democratic discourse. The result is a chilling atmosphere in which mob justice has replaced due process and forgiveness is impossible.

Beware of the Metaverse Hype

Big Tech wants to build the ‘metaverse.’ What on Earth does that mean?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/08/30/what-is-the-metaverse/
 
Big Tech Wants You to Live in a Virtual World. Prepare for Real Problems.
https://www.wsj.com/articles/big-tech-wants-you-to-live-in-a-virtual-world-prepare-for-real-problems-11630056626

Remote Work - Winners and Losers

The Winners of Remote Work
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/31/upshot/the-winners-of-remote-work.html 

Delta Variant – US and Global Economic Impact

The Economy Is Booming but Far from Normal, Posing a Challenge for Biden
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/31/business/economy/biden-economy.html

U.S. Consumer Confidence Falls to Six-Month Low on Delta Variant
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-31/u-s-consumer-confidence-declines-in-august-amid-delta-concerns

Covid-19 Delta Variant Pummels China’s Services Sector

https://www.wsj.com/articles/covid-19-delta-variant-pummels-chinas-services-sector-11630386778
 
Eurozone Inflation Hits Decade High as Bottlenecks Bite
https://www.wsj.com/articles/eurozone-inflation-hits-decade-high-as-bottlenecks-bite-11630408733
 
Made-in-Germany Growth Engine Falters as Firms Hit Supply Shocks
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-31/made-in-germany-growth-engine-falters-as-firms-hit-supply-shocks

The World Economy’s Supply Chain Problem Keeps Getting Worse
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-25/the-world-economy-s-supply-chain-problem-keeps-getting-worse

How the delta variant stole Christmas: Empty shelves, long waits — and yes, higher prices
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/09/01/holiday-shipping-delays-inflation/

Is This the Last Charge of the Stimulus Brigade?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-26/central-banks-helped-reverse-covid-bred-recession-but-more-spending-s-ahead
 
My Take:
The delta variant will slow but not derail the ongoing economic recovery
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/568957-the-delta-variant-will-slow-but-not-derail-the-ongoing-us-economic-recovery
It's time to ease up on the stimulus accelerator
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/566130-its-time-to-ease-up-on-the-stimulus-accelerator 

Covid-19 Public Policy Debate – An Intelligent Discussion of Trade-Offs

The Hard Covid-19 Questions We’re Not Asking
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/opinion/us-covid-policy.html

Requiring Masks in Schools Has a Downside
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/09/school-mask-mandates-downside/619952/
Author Info: Vinay Prasad, a hematologist and oncologist, is an associate professor of epidemiology and biostatistics at UC San Francisco.
 “Scientists have an obligation to strive for honesty. And on the question of whether kids should wear masks in schools—particularly preschools and elementary schools—here is what I conclude: The potential educational harms of mandatory-masking policies are much more firmly established, at least at this point, than their possible benefits in stopping the spread of COVID-19 in schools. To justify continued masking of schoolkids—with no end date in sight—we have to prove that masks benefit kids, and at what ages. States and communities that are considering masking policies just to be safe should recognize that being overly cautious has a cost, while the benefits are uncertain”.

Related:

Americans Are Losing Sight of the Pandemic Endgame

https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/americans-are-losing-sight-endgame/619916/
Entirely eliminating infections is an unrealistic goal, but successful vaccines will avoid the worst outcomes. 

Vaccine Refusers Don’t Get to Dictate Terms Anymore
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/vaccine-refusers-hesitancy-mandates-fda-delta/619918/
People who opt out of shots shouldn’t expect their employers, health insurers, and fellow citizens to accommodate them.  

State Intervention in China

George Soros: Investors in Xi’s China face a rude awakening
https://www.ft.com/content/ecf7de34-e595-4814-9cbd-4a5119187330
 
China’s attack on tech: Xi Jinping’s assault on his country’s tech titans is likely to prove self-defeating
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/08/14/xi-jinpings-assault-on-tech-will-change-chinas-trajectory

Crypto Bubble

Billionaire Paulson Who Shorted Subprime Calls Crypto ‘Worthless’ Bubble
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-30/is-bitcoin-a-good-investment-billionaire-paulson-says-crypto-worthless-bubble
 
Related:
Cryptocurrency makes the climate crisis worse
https://thehill.com/opinion/energy-environment/569395-cryptocurrency-makes-the-climate-crisis-worse

Golden Age of Stupidity

You Are Living in the Golden Age of Stupidity
https://www.wsj.com/articles/idiocy-stupidity-afghanistan-covid-vaccine-maga-trump-civility-privacy-common-sense-11630271666 

Inflationary Pressures Remain

Higher Prices Are Here, Whether or Not You Call It Inflation
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-30/higher-prices-are-here-whether-or-not-you-call-it-inflation
 
The World Is Still Short of Everything. Get Used to It.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/30/business/supply-chain-shortages.html 

One Stuck Box of Fertilizer Shows the Global Supply Chain Crisis
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-28/one-stuck-box-of-fertilizer-shows-the-global-supply-chain-crisis

Now It’s Everyone’s Dollar, and Everyone’s Problem

https://www.wsj.com/articles/dollar-fed-chair-jerome-powell-jackson-hole-inflation-federal-reserve-emerging-markets-11630012468 

Saving for Retirement

The simple tricks that turned one investor’s $70,000 retirement account into a $264 million fortune
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/27/retirement-fund-millionaire/ 

Dealing with Big Tech - International Perspective

There’s no escape from Facebook, even if you don’t use it
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/08/29/facebook-privacy-monopoly/
Related:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/08/29/stop-facebook-tracking/
 
Apple and Google’s Fight in Seoul Tests Biden in Washington
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/23/technology/apple-google-south-korea-app-store.html
 
The Rise and Fall of the World’s Ride-Hailing Giant
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/27/technology/china-didi-crackdown.html

China’s Sweeping Crackdown on Big Tech Is a Wake-Up Call for the U.S.
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/chinas-sweeping-crackdown-on-big-tech-is-a-wake-up-call.html

The China Model: What the Country’s Tech Crackdown Is Really About
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-27/china-tech-crackdown-xi-charts-new-model-after-emulating-silicon-valley

China launches 6-month intensive campaign to set Big Tech straight
https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/China-tech/China-launches-6-month-intensive-campaign-to-set-Big-Tech-straight

The Fed's Quest for 'Maximum Employment'

Fed Faces New Challenge Spelling Out Employment Goals
https://www.wsj.com/articles/fed-faces-new-challenge-spelling-out-employment-goals-11630229402

My Take: The Fed's risky quest for maximum employment

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/568134-the-feds-risky-quest-for-maximum-employment 

Pandemic's Impact on the Labor Market

Desperate U.S. Cities Pitch Wall Street-Style Sign-On Bonuses
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-08-25/cities-use-big-bonuses-to-attract-workers-during-labor-shortage

Workers Don’t Want Their Old Jobs on the Old Terms
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/23/opinion/workers-wages-recovery.html

How Freelancing Is Changing Work
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/business/hayden-brown-upwork-corner-office.html

Workers, in Demand, Have a New Demand of Their Own: A Career Path
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/business/workers-in-demand-have-a-new-demand-of-their-own-a-career-path.html
 
What Has Driven the Recent Increase in Retirements?
https://www.kansascityfed.org/research/economic-bulletin/what-has-driven-the-recent-increase-in-retirements/
 
Women without a College Degree, Especially Minority Mothers, Face a Steeper Road to Recovery
https://www.kansascityfed.org/documents/8243/er21v106n3tuzemen.pdf

The Mystery of the Missing Workers, Explained
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2021-08-05/why-is-u-s-labor-force-shrinking-retirement-boom-opioid-crisis-child-care 

Why Managers Fear a Remote-Work Future
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/07/work-from-home-benefits/619597/ 

Religion, Demographics, and Population Control

Why India Is Making Progress in Slowing Its Population Growth
https://e360.yale.edu/features/why-india-is-making-progress-in-slowing-its-population-growth
 
Realizing demographic dividend
https://www.deccanherald.com/opinion/panorama/realising-demographic-dividend-1016803.html

In India, a debate over population control turns explosive
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/29/india-population-hindus-muslims/ 

Nationalism in China

Understanding China's conflicted nationalism
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Understanding-China-s-conflicted-nationalism 

Europe's Mounting Challenges

Fortress Europe is dreading the Afghan migrant crisis
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/fortress-europe-is-dreading-the-afghan-migrant-crisis 

Mass Migrations Could Yet Bring Europe Down
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-28/mass-migrations-could-yet-bring-europe-down 

How Angela Merkel Turned Back the Clock of German History
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-29/how-angela-merkel-turned-back-the-clock-of-german-history 

Weekend Reading - International Affairs

As US retreats from policeman role, rest of world pressed to fill void
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/Afghanistan-turmoil/As-US-retreats-from-policeman-role-rest-of-world-pressed-to-fill-void

The U.S. reckons with defeat in Afghanistan
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/30/america-reckons-defeat-afghanistan/

Would Japan defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/would-japan-defend-taiwan-
 
China’s Great Game in Afghanistan
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/china-s-great-game-in-afghanistan
 
The Old Cliché About Afghanistan That Won’t Die
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/28/afghanistan-graveyard-britain-us-russia-506990 

The time for equivocating about a nuclear-armed, Taliban-friendly Pakistan is over
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/23/john-bolton-taliban-takeover-pakistan-extremists/

Development of the Oxford/AstraZeneca Vaccine

An oral history of Oxford/AstraZeneca: ‘Making a vaccine in a year is like landing a human on the moon’
https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/aug/28/oral-history-of-oxfordastrazeneca-making-a-vaccine-in-a-year-is-like-landing-a-human-on-the-moon 

Economics - Dismal Science?

Why Would an Economist Ever Look on the Bright Side?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/27/business/economy/why-would-an-economist-ever-look-on-the-bright-side.html 

Behavioral Economics - What is it Good for?

Behavioral Economics Doesn't Have to Be a Total Loss
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-27/behavioral-economics-doesn-t-have-to-be-a-total-loss
Exploiting personal biases to influence people's behavior was always a bad idea. Instead, governments and companies should find better ways to communicate risks.

India's Growth Model - Going Green

Modi’s Green New Deal Might Actually Work
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-27/india-s-narendra-modi-is-smart-to-focus-on-green-growth

Fundamental Physics

In praise of physics: Fundamental physics is one of humanity’s most extraordinary achievements
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2021/08/28/fundamental-physics-is-humanitys-most-extraordinary-achievement

For Monetary Policy Nerds

Powell Speech: Monetary Policy in the Time of Covid
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20210827a.pdf
 
The new Powell doctrine
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/08/28/the-new-powell-doctrine

It’s time for the Fed to rethink quantitative easing
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/26/its-time-fed-rethink-quantitative-easing/

The Pandemic Is Testing the Federal Reserve’s New Policy Plan

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/business/economy/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-meeting.html
 
Biden and the Fed Wanted a Hot Economy. There’s Risk of Getting Burned.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/23/upshot/biden-economy-analysis-inflation.html
 
How Should the Fed Deal with Climate Change?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/26/upshot/fed-climate-change-analysis.html

Racial income and wealth gaps are huge – but the Fed doesn’t have the right tools to fix them
https://theconversation.com/racial-income-and-wealth-gaps-are-huge-but-the-fed-doesnt-have-the-right-tools-to-fix-them-166791

Some Say Low Interest Rates Cause Inequality. What if It’s the Reverse?

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/28/upshot/some-say-low-interest-rates-cause-inequality-what-if-its-the-reverse.html 

Banks Are Bingeing on Bonds, but Not Because They Want To
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/business/banks-government-bonds.html 

South Africa's Economy

South Africa’s economy is 11% bigger than previously estimated, after statistics authorities changed the way they calculate gross domestic product
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-25/africa-s-most-industrialized-economy-is-now-37-billion-bigger
 
Decades of corruption and misrule have exhausted South Africa. Hope for the future remains, but it is slighter than ever.
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/africa/2021/08/jacob-zuma-and-south-africa-s-moment-reckoning
 
Amid a lot of uncertainty, lies an opportunity to build the South African economy back better
https://blogs.worldbank.org/africacan/amid-lot-uncertainty-lies-opportunity-build-south-african-economy-back-better 

US Healthcare System - In Need of Reform

Hospitals and Insurers Didn’t Want You to See These Prices. Here’s Why.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/22/upshot/hospital-prices.html 

Costa Ricans Live Longer Than Us. What’s the Secret?
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/08/30/costa-ricans-live-longer-than-us-whats-the-secret

Distortions in the US Housing Market

In This Housing Boom, Mortgages Are for Losers
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-24/in-this-housing-boom-mortgages-are-for-losers
To boost entry-level homeownership for lower-income buyers, the government needs to make the market less appealing to the cash-rich Wall Street investors who have taken over. 

Pros and Cons of Running the Economy Hot

Biden and the Fed Wanted a Hot Economy. There’s Risk of Getting Burned.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/23/upshot/biden-economy-analysis-inflation.html

The Pandemic Is Testing the Federal Reserve’s New Policy Plan
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/25/business/economy/federal-reserve-jackson-hole-meeting.html

Powell Should Send a Message on Phasing Out Quantitative Easing

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-24/at-jackson-hole-powell-should-send-a-message-on-phasing-out-qe

My thoughts on the issue:
The Fed's risky quest for maximum employment
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/568134-the-feds-risky-quest-for-maximum-employment 
It's time to ease up on the stimulus accelerator
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/566130-its-time-to-ease-up-on-the-stimulus-accelerator
Should the Fed be less complacent about inflation risks?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/554058-should-the-fed-be-less-complacent-about-inflation-risks
Will the inflation spike be temporary?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/551466-will-the-inflation-spike-be-temporary 
Have misguided policies led to recent asset bubbles and boom-bust cycles?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/538921-have-misguided-policies-led-to-recent-asset-bubbles-and-boom-bust-cycles 
The pros and cons of running the economy hot
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/536691-the-pros-and-cons-of-running-the-economy-hot

Projected Sea Level Changes

NASA’s Sea Level Projection Tool
https://sealevel.nasa.gov/ipcc-ar6-sea-level-projection-tool
 
Buying property along Florida’s coastline may be a dumb idea.

Can Workplace Meetings be Made Less Boring?

Most workers hate meetings. Here’s how to make sure yours are productive.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/effective-meetings-virtual-zoom-productive/2021/08/14/c5d76ab4-fba5-11eb-943a-c5cf30d50e6a_story.html

Krugman on Globalization

 Krugman on International Trade and Globalization
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/20/opinion/us-globalization-tariffs.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/07/08/opinion/trump-trade-chips.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/opinion/economic-nationalism-biden-trump-trade.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/07/opinion/yellens-new-alliance-against-leprechauns.html

Socio-Economic Impact of the Pandemic

The delta variant will slow but not derail the ongoing economic recovery
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/568957-the-delta-variant-will-slow-but-not-derail-the-ongoing-us-economic-recovery

All the confusion over variants, booster shots and vaccine passports will make it harder for tourists, businesses and would-be emigrants.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-22/first-covid-immobilized-us-now-governments-are

Will Pandemic Burnout Change How People Process Disasters?
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2021/08/will-pandemic-fatigue-change-how-we-process-disasters/619858/

The U.S. Is Getting a Crash Course in Scientific Uncertainty
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/22/health/coronavirus-covid-usa.html

Covid Controversies

Vaccine Mandates Are Lawful, Effective and Based on Rock-Solid Science
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/vaccine-mandates-are-lawful-effective-and-based-on-rock-solid-science/
 
The Science of Masking Kids at School Remains Uncertain
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2021/08/the-science-of-masking-kids-at-school-remains-uncertain.html

Remote learning inflicted educational, psychological and economic damage last year. If classrooms slam shut every time there’s a positive test now, the result will be just as dire.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-20/covid-in-the-schools-too-much-caution-will-hurt-children

 
Eliminating COVID-19 May No Longer be Possible: A Public Health Expert's View
https://thewire.in/health/eliminating-covid-19-may-no-longer-be-possible-a-public-health-experts-view
 
The Coronavirus Is Here Forever. This Is How We Live with It.
https://www.theatlantic.com/science/archive/2021/08/how-we-live-coronavirus-forever/619783/ 

Foreign Policy, Politics, and Lessons from History

A Rough Beast Returns
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/21/opinion/afghanistan-kabul-biden-blinken.html
 
America’s Afghan War: A Defeat Foretold?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/21/world/europe/afghanistan-us-history-colonial-wars.html
 
Why did a military superpower fail in Afghanistan?
https://theconversation.com/why-did-a-military-superpower-fail-in-afghanistan-166238
 
To Understand Afghanistan’s Future, Reckon with the Region’s Colonial Past
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/19/afghanistan-pakistan-india-south-asia-british-colonial-past-partition-durand-line/

Here’s why the U.S. national security apparatus keeps producing failures
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/19/heres-why-us-national-security-apparatus-keeps-producing-failures/
 
Afghanistan’s crisis underscores the U.S.’s shifting place in the world
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/20/afghanistan-us-shifting-role/ 

 Columbia University economist Jeffrey Sachs notes:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/afghanistan-latest-debacle-of-us-foreign-policy-by-jeffrey-d-sachs-2021-08
“What these cases have in common is not just policy failure. Underlying all of them is the US foreign-policy establishment’s belief that the solution to every political challenge is military intervention or CIA-backed destabilization”.

For America, and Afghanistan, the Post-9/11 Era Ends Painfully
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/world/asia/afghanistan-united-states.html

America's Shifting Demographics

Florida is America's Future: Old, Southern and Retired
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-21/florida-is-america-s-future-old-southern-and-retired
 
Inside the Diverse and Growing Asian Population in the U.S.
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/21/us/asians-census-us.html
“People of Indian descent hold a significant share of jobs in several high-paying fields, including computer science, financial management and medicine. Nine percent of doctors in the United States are of Indian descent, and more than half of them are immigrants”.

Related:

https://www8.gsb.columbia.edu/articles/chazen-global-insights/singular-population-indian-immigrants-america 

Who Has the Cure for America’s Declining Population? Canada.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/18/opinion/us-canada-immigration.html 

Human Rationality

Why Is It So Hard to Be Rational? By Joshua Rothman
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2021/08/23/why-is-it-so-hard-to-be-rational

Techno-Dependency

Fail-Safe Failures
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nature-of-our-vulnerability-to-new-technologies-by-robert-skidelsky-2021-08
Robert Skidelsky warns:
The slower-burning threat is that populations, accustomed to the “automatic” provision of services on which they rely, will gradually lose their resilience to “shocks,” both natural and artificial. Having lost their memory of how things were done in the past, and knowing little or nothing about how the processes on which they rely actually work, they will be helpless and panic-stricken in the face of even mild upsets to “normal” life. They have made a God of the Machine, or as, academics more soberly explain, they live by the “scientific-technological paradigm” and are governed by its “frame of necessities.” 

The Illusion of Privacy Is Getting Harder to Sell
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/19/opinion/apple-iphone-privacy.html 

Stock Investing – Taking the Long View

Contrarian Investors Should Love Emerging Markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-19/personal-finance-contrarian-investors-should-love-emerging-markets
Stocks in developing countries are lagging behind those in the U.S. They could be poised to outperform in the coming years. 

Does Trickle-Down Economics Work?

Trickle-Down Economics Has Failed Its Growth Mission
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-19/trickle-down-economics-has-failed-its-growth-mission 

An Update on the Inflation Debate

Top Fed official warns massive bond purchases are ill-suited for US economy
https://todayuknews.com/economy/top-fed-official-warns-massive-bond-purchases-are-ill-suited-for-us-economy/
“Eric Rosengren, president of the Boston Fed, told the Financial Times that he would support the central bank announcing next month that it would begin to wind down or “taper” its $120bn in monthly asset purchases this autumn and get on track to halt them by the middle of 2022.
The purchases of Treasuries and agency mortgage-backed securities were no longer the right remedy in an environment of severe shortages of essential materials and workers, Rosengren said”.

Landlords From Florida to California Are Jacking Up Rents at Record Speeds
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-18/housing-hunt-turns-to-desperation-with-record-rise-in-u-s-rents

 
What’s Happening with Inflation, in 179 Charts
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2021/08/18/opinion/inflation-economy-transitory.html

Supply-Chain Shocks Keep Hitting the World’s Factory Floors
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-14/supply-chain-shocks-keep-hitting-the-world-s-factory-floors
 
What ‘Transitory’ Inflation Really Means
https://www.barrons.com/articles/what-transitory-inflation-really-means-51628785705
 
Inflation Is Here. The Big Debate Is, Will It Stay?
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-14/inflation-is-here-the-big-debate-is-will-it-stay-quicktake

My Thoughts:
The Fed's risky quest for maximum employment
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/568134-the-feds-risky-quest-for-maximum-employment 

It's time to ease up on the stimulus accelerator

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/566130-its-time-to-ease-up-on-the-stimulus-accelerator

The Triumph of E-Commerce

People Now Spend More at Amazon Than at Walmart
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/17/technology/amazon-walmart.html 

The Case for Short-Sellers

A Skeptical Stock Analyst Wins Big by Seeking Out Frauds
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/16/business/short-seller-wall-street-scams-hindenburg.html

The Afghanistan Tragedy

Taliban triumph: anatomy of a disaster in Afghanistan
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Taliban-triumph-anatomy-of-a-disaster-in-Afghanistan

In the Afghanistan debacle, so many errors and so little candor
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/16/afghanistan-debacle-so-many-errors-so-little-candor/
 
Afghanistan is now part of the post-American world
https://www.ft.com/content/516b75b4-0c1c-4a7b-91d9-dd4844b1ecab

Pax Americana Died in Kabul
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/pax-americana-died-in-afghanistan-by-brahma-chellaney-2021-08
 
The Taliban has taken lessons from the global jihadist movement
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2021/08/taliban-has-taken-lessons-global-jihadist-movement

The Year We Lost Our Way in Afghanistan
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2021/08/bin-laden-2001-end-war-afghanistan/619767/

What went wrong in Afghanistan
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-went-wrong-in-afghanistan
 
The Afghan government’s collapse is a humiliation for the US and Joe Biden
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/asia/2021/08/afghan-government-s-collapse-humiliation-us-and-joe-biden

Letting the Taliban Take Over Afghanistan Isn’t Exactly a ‘Win’
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-13/taliban-s-afghanistan-takeover-isn-t-a-win-for-u-s-biden
 
America’s warrior class contends with the abject failure of its Afghanistan project
https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/us-hubris-afghanistan-humiliation/2021/08/14/47fb025a-fc67-11eb-9c0e-97e29906a970_story.html

Afghanistan’s Unraveling May Strike Another Blow to U.S. Credibility
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/world/europe/afghanistan-eu-us-credibility.html
Joe Biden’s credibility has been shredded in Afghanistan
https://www.ft.com/content/71629b28-f730-431a-b8da-a2d45387a0c2

What was the point of the war in Afghanistan?
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/what-was-the-point-of-the-war-in-afghanistan-
The country is sliding back towards the pre-intervention status quo

China moves swiftly to exploit the void in Afghanistan
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-moves-swiftly-to-exploit-the-void-in-Afghanistan

The Rise of the Freelance Workforce

How Freelancing Is Changing Work
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/business/hayden-brown-upwork-corner-office.html

Nixon Shock and Evolution of the International Monetary System

Currency adrift: 50 years after the Nixon shock
https://vdata.nikkei.com/en/newsgraphics/nixon-shock-50-years/

50 Years After Going Off Gold, the Dollar Must Go for Crypto
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-15/niall-ferguson-nixon-the-gold-standard-and-a-bitcoin-bonanza

Will China's digital yuan vanquish the dollar?
https://asia.nikkei.com/Spotlight/The-Big-Story/Will-China-s-digital-yuan-vanquish-the-dollar
 
For yuan to be the new dollar, China needs democracy: Eichengreen
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/For-yuan-to-be-the-new-dollar-China-needs-democracy-Eichengreen
 
China's yuan likely to become Asia's central currency: Kenneth Rogoff
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/China-s-yuan-likely-to-become-Asia-s-central-currency-Kenneth-Rogoff
 
Yuan to act as global currency 'anchor': Chinese finance expert
https://asia.nikkei.com/Editor-s-Picks/Interview/Yuan-to-act-as-global-currency-anchor-Chinese-finance-expert
 
China's domination of global finance about to take a quantum leap
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-s-domination-of-global-finance-about-to-take-a-quantum-leap
 
China's global yuan push regains momentum
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/China-s-global-yuan-push-regains-momentum 

Samuelson versus Friedman

The Two Economists Who Fought Over How Free the Free Market Should Be
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/03/books/the-two-economists-who-fought-over-how-free-the-free-market-should-be.html 

College Degrees – ROI

Will That College Degree Pay Off?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/13/your-money/college-degree-investment-return.html
 
Which College Programs Give Students the Best Bang for Their Buck?
https://www.thirdway.org/report/which-college-programs-give-students-the-best-bang-for-their-buck
http://thirdway.imgix.net/pdfs/which-college-programs-give-students-the-best-bang-for-their-buck.pdf 

Tech and Society

He predicted the dark side of the Internet 30 years ago. Why did no one listen?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/08/12/philip-agre-ai-disappeared/
Philip Agre, a computer scientist turned humanities professor, was prescient about many of the ways technology would impact the world 

We can have democracy, or we can have a surveillance society, but we cannot have both.
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/01/29/opinion/sunday/facebook-surveillance-society-technology.html 

It’s All Rigged: What Robinhood and Facebook have in common
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2021/02/gamestop-mess-shows-internet-rigged-too/618040/
ZEYNEP TUFEKCI notes:
“Self-organized groups have been using the web to act on the physical world for a while. The tech companies that enable this behavior are themselves old. … We’ve had many years to think smarter about what digital connectivity means. And yet, we still face this idea that the internet is a game, that the virtual world is something distinct from the real one. This condescension is even embedded in the phrase IRL - “in real life,” meaning not online.
But the internet isn’t a game. It’s real. And it’s not just a neutral mirror that passively reflects society. One hears that notion from tech elites who’d like to deflect blame from their own creations, which have both empowered and enriched them. “It’s just a tool,” they say. This same mentality is what made Mark Zuckerberg say that it was a “pretty crazy idea” that Facebook had anything to do with Donald Trump’s election—a statement he had to walk back, in part, because it contradicted everything that Facebook usually claims: that its software matters; that it influences people; that it changes, rather than merely reflects, the world”. 

Why Technology Favors Tyranny

https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2018/10/yuval-noah-harari-technology-tyranny/568330/ 

The Tyranny of Convenience

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/02/16/opinion/sunday/tyranny-convenience.html

Climate Crisis: Weather, Geography, and Human Habitation

Mapping Where It’s Getting Hotter and Where It’s Not
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-12/u-s-climate-change-is-easier-to-see-on-the-coasts

IPCC Climate Change Report Shows Less Cause for Panic—But More Urgency to Act
https://www.wsj.com/articles/ipcc-climate-change-report-gives-a-less-extreme-but-more-sobering-outlook-11628697997
A U.N. panel’s study released this week suggests both lower risk of dramatic increases in temperature and higher risk from inaction.

Scientists spot warning signs of Gulf Stream collapse
https://www.theguardian.com/environment/2021/aug/05/climate-crisis-scientists-spot-warning-signs-of-gulf-stream-collapse

A critical ocean system may be heading for collapse due to climate change, study finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/climate-environment/2021/08/05/change-ocean-collapse-atlantic-meridional/

Greenland Ice Sheet is Melting Rapidly
https://www.washingtonpost.com/weather/2021/08/05/greenland-melt-event-season-2021/

Climate destruction is now moving much faster than human institutions.
https://www.newyorker.com/news/annals-of-a-warming-planet/the-world-speeds-up-and-we-slow-down
 
Canada is a warning: more and more of the world will soon be too hot for humans
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/30/canada-temperatures-limits-human-climate-emergency-earth
 
Australia is at the climate crossroads. The choice is yours, mates
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jun/30/australia-is-at-the-climate-crossroads-the-choice-is-yours-mates

HOW RUSSIA WINS THE CLIMATE CRISIS
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/12/16/magazine/russia-climate-migration-crisis.html
 
Canada could be a huge climate change winner when it comes to farmland
https://www.cbc.ca/news/technology/climate-change-farming-1.5461275 

US Economy: Inflation Pressures Remain Elevated

Prices rise 5.4 percent in July over last year as the economy claws back from pandemic depths
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/11/july-prices-cpi-inflation-fed/

Consumer Prices Keep Climbing as Fed and White House Await a Cool-Down
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/11/business/economy/july-2021-consumer-price-inflation.html

CPI Report Can’t Settle the Big Inflation Debate
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-11/cpi-isn-t-a-big-miss-but-can-t-settle-inflation-debate

Related: 
Will the Pandemic Productivity Boom Last?
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/10/upshot/will-the-pandemic-productivity-boom-last.html

The Eviction Moratorium Debacle

The Eviction Moratorium Won’t Save Renters — or Landlords
https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2021/08/10/eviction-moratorium-renters-landlord-covid-503352
 
As the eviction moratorium stretches on, many corporate apartment chains catering to white-collar workers are raising rents and booking enormous profits while some small landlords are giving up and deciding to sell.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/10/eviction-moratorium-landlords/

Debt Ceiling and Public Debt

The Debt-Ceiling Farce Is a Headache Investors Could Do Without
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-08-09/the-u-s-debt-ceiling-farce-is-a-headache-investors-could-do-without?srnd=premium
 
In New Papers, Economists Argue Deficits Are Like Ponzi Schemes
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2021-07-08/in-new-papers-economists-argue-deficits-are-like-ponzi-schemes

Reforming Economics

 Harvard’s Dani Rodrik correctly notes:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economics-geographic-diversity-problem-by-dani-rodrik-2021-08
Although economists are finally addressing their profession's gender and racial imbalances, another key source of knowledge and insight remains absent from the discussion. Until there is a greater representation of voices from outside North America and Western Europe, economics will not be a truly global discipline.

The Changing Map of Economics
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-thinking-with-covid19-climate-digitalization-labor-markets-by-kaushik-basu-2021-07
 
Economics needs to evolve
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/06/24/economics-needs-to-evolve 
 
2021 AEA DISTINGUISHED LECTURE:
Public Economics and Inequality: Uncovering Our Social Nature by Emmanuel Saez
https://eml.berkeley.edu/~saez/saez-AEAlecture.pdf
“In human societies, childcare and education for the young, retirement benefits for the old, health care for the sick, and income support for those in need are to a large extent resolved at the social level rather than the individual level. This was traditionally done informally through the community and family and is now achieved through the modern social state in advanced economies. Even though an individual solution through markets is theoretically possible, it does not work well in practice without significant institutional or government help”. 
 
Why Economics Is Failing Us
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-05-24/why-economics-is-failing-us
Tyler Cowen notes:
“Here’s the dirty little secret that few of my fellow economics professors will admit: As those “perfect” research papers have grown longer, they have also become less relevant. Fewer people — including academics — read them carefully or are influenced by them when it comes to policy.
Actual views on politics are more influenced by debates on social media, especially on such hot topics such as the minimum wage or monetary and fiscal policy
Actual views on politics are more influenced by debates on social media, especially on such hot topics such as the minimum wage or monetary and fiscal policy”. 
 
 
Purpose of Economic Research
Wise words from the winner of the 1981 Nobel Prize in Economics, James Tobin: 
“… economic knowledge advances when striking real-world events and issues pose puzzles we have to try to understand and resolve. The most important decisions a scholar makes are what problems to work on. Choosing them just by looking for gaps in the literature is often not very productive and it worst divorces the literature itself from problems that provide more important and productive lines of inquiry. The best economists have taken their subjects from the world around them.”

Evolution of International Trade

What Vaccine Supply Tells Us About International Trade
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/06/opinion/covid-vaccine-supply-chain-bown-bollyky.html 

International Affairs - Weekend Readings

Malaysia's economic growth model is on the brink of collapse
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Malaysia-s-economic-growth-model-is-on-the-brink-of-collapse

Canada wants immigrants but the pandemic is in the way. So it’s looking to keep people already there.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2021/08/07/canada-immigration-pandemic/
 
Why Hungary Inspires So Much Fear and Fascination
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/07/opinion/sunday/hungary-orban-conservatives-free-speech.html
 
Greece and France join Italy in making Covid-19 shots mandatory for health workers, telling the unvaccinated they won't get paid
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/13/europe/france-greece-coronavirus-vaccine-health-workers-intl/index.html
 
Australia once reveled in being the 'lucky country' on Covid-19. Now weary Aussies 'feel like prisoners'
https://www.cnn.com/2021/07/24/australia/australia-lockdown-covid-lucky-country-intl-cmd/index.html
 
How Pakistan Could Become Biden’s Worst Enemy
https://foreignpolicy.com/2021/08/06/pakistan-taliban-biden-afghanistan-worst-enemy/
 
The beheading of a diplomat's daughter shows how badly Pakistan is failing its women
https://www.cnn.com/2021/08/07/asia/pakistan-noor-mukadam-murder-intl-hnk-dst/index.html 

Food: The Best Indian Restaurants in London

London’s best Indian restaurants
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/london-s-best-indian-restaurants 

Regulating Cryptocurrencies

The Way the Senate Melted Down Over Crypto Is Very Revealing
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/12/opinion/senate-cryptocurrency.html

How cryptocurrency became a powerful force in Washington
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2021/08/07/cryptocurrency-infrastructure-bill-lobby-bitcoin/

The SEC sets its sights on the crypto “Wild West”
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2021/08/07/the-sec-sets-its-sights-on-the-crypto-wild-west
 
Bitcoin FAQ: A detailed guide to cryptocurrency and why senators are fighting about how to tax it in the infrastructure bill
https://www.washingtonpost.com/technology/2021/06/14/bitcoin-cryptocurrency-faq/ 

Online Distraction and the ‘Attention Economy’

At best, we’re on Earth for around 4,000 weeks – so why do we lose so much time to online distraction?
https://www.theguardian.com/books/2021/aug/07/on-earth-4000-weeks-so-why-lose-time-online-distraction-oliver-burkeman
“… distraction truly matters – because your experience of being alive consists of nothing other than the sum of everything to which you pay attention. At the end of your life, looking back, whatever compelled your attention from moment to moment is simply what your life will have been. When you pay attention to something you don’t especially value, it’s not an exaggeration to say that you’re paying with your life”. 

Two Good Reads

 

The Stimulus Debate Heats Up

Jobs Strength Leaves Fed and Powell with Nowhere to Hide
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-06/jobs-strength-leaves-fed-and-powell-with-nowhere-to-hide

The Fed’s ultraloose monetary policy could hurt both the economy and Biden’s agenda
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/08/06/feds-ultraloose-monetary-policy-could-hurt-both-economy-bidens-agenda/

My Take: It's time to ease up on the stimulus accelerator

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/566130-its-time-to-ease-up-on-the-stimulus-accelerator

The Powell Fed
https://www.nytimes.com/2021/08/06/opinion/powell-fed-reappointment.html

FRB San Francisco President, Mary Daly on Fed Stimulus:

America Squandered Decades Living for the Moment
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-08-05/biden-s-3-5-trillion-plan-to-invest-in-america-s-future 

Being Content

Escaping the Efficiency Trap—and Finding Some Peace of Mind
https://www.wsj.com/articles/escaping-the-efficiency-trapand-finding-some-peace-of-mind-11628262751
Oliver Burkeman notes:
“Research shows that this feeling arises on every rung of the economic ladder. If you’re working two minimum-wage jobs to put food in your children’s stomachs, there’s a good chance you’ll feel overstretched. But if you’re better off, you’ll find yourself feeling overstretched for reasons that seem, to you, no less compelling: because you have a nicer house with higher mortgage payments, or because the demands of your (interesting, well-paid) job conflict with your longing to spend time with your aging parents, or to be more involved in your children’s lives, or to dedicate your life to fighting climate change”.
 
Adam Smith (Theory of Moral Sentiments):
https://www.bl.uk/collection-items/the-theory-of-moral-sentiments-by-adam-smith
“The poor man's son, whom heaven in its anger has visited with ambition, when he begins to look around him, admires the condition of the rich. He finds the cottage of his father too small for his accommodation, and fancies he should be lodged more at his ease in a palace. He is displeased with being obliged to walk a-foot, or to endure the fatigue of riding on horseback. He sees his superiors carried about in machines, and imagines that in one of these he could travel with less inconveniency.... He thinks if he had attained all these, he would sit still contentedly, and be quiet, enjoying himself in the thought of the happiness and tranquility of his situation. He is enchanted with the distant idea of this felicity. It appears in his fancy like the life of some superior rank of beings, and, in order to arrive at it, he devotes himself forever to the pursuit of wealth and greatness. To obtain the conveniencies which these afford, he submits in the first year, nay in the first month of his application, to more fatigue of body and more uneasiness of mind than he could have suffered through the whole of his life from want of them. He studies to distinguish himself in some laborious profession. With the most unrelenting industry he labours night and day to acquire talents superior to all his competitors. He endeavours next to bring those talents into public view, and with equal assiduity solicits every opportunity of employment. For this purpose he makes his court to all mankind; he serves those whom he hates, and is obsequious to those whom he despises. Through the whole of his life he pursues the idea of a certain artificial and elegant repose which he may never arrive at, for which he sacrifices a real tranquility that is at all times in his power, and which if in the extremity of old age, he should at last attain to it, he will find to be in no respect preferable to that humble security and contentment which he had abandoned for it. It is then ... that he begins at last to find that wealth and greatness are mere trinkets of frivolous utility”