Economics and International Affairs Blog: October 2020

Friday, October 30, 2020

Goods Sector versus Services Sector

Polls and the 2020 US Elections

Nate Silver on why 2020 isn’t 2016
https://www.vox.com/21538214/nate-silver-538-2020-forecast-2016-trump-biden-election-podcast

America’s left and right are radicalizing each other, and the precedents from overseas are deeply unsettling.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/left-and-right-are-radicalizing-each-other/616914/

Thursday, October 29, 2020

The World Gets More Dangerous

Erdogan’s game: why Turkey has turned against the West
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/erdogans-game-why-turkey-has-turned-against-the-west
The French-Turkish spat that could 'widen the civilizational divide'
https://www.dw.com/en/the-french-turkish-spat-that-could-widen-the-civilizational-divide/a-55436645
How Turkey Pressured Trump to Curb a Criminal Inquiry
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/us/politics/trump-erdogan-halkbank.html

Angered at French call to ‘reform’ Islam, tens of thousands gather in protests across Muslim-majority countries
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/france-muslims-protests-cartoons-attack/2020/10/30/53a158ac-1a9a-11eb-8bda-814ca56e138b_story.html

Islamic Governments Condone Radicals in France

https://www.wsj.com/articles/islamic-governments-condone-radicals-in-france-11603989435
On Islamophobia, Pakistan’s Imran Khan Is the Problem, Not the Solution
https://nationalinterest.org/blog/middle-east-watch/islamophobia-pakistan’s-imran-khan-problem-not-solution-171569

'India stands with France in fight against terrorism': PM Modi condemns Nice knife attack
https://www.livemint.com/news/world/-india-stands-with-france-in-fight-against-terrorism-pm-modi-condemns-nice-knife-attack-11603984903378.html

The war in the Caucasus nears a bloody tipping point
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/10/30/armenians-azerbaijan-clashes-nagorno-karabakh/

China and the US risk accidental war over Taiwan
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/China-and-the-US-risk-accidental-war-over-Taiwan

As the West Stumbles, ‘Helmsman’ Xi Pushes an Ambitious Plan for China
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/world/asia/china-xi-communist-party-meeting.html

Birth Rates During the Pandemic

The pandemic may be leading to fewer babies in rich countries
https://www.economist.com/international/2020/10/28/the-pandemic-may-be-leading-to-fewer-babies-in-rich-countries

HDFC's Aditya Puri - An Emerging Market Banking Star

Who is the world’s best banker?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/10/29/who-is-the-worlds-best-banker

The Pandemic and the Labor Market

The Mystery of How Many Mothers Have Left Work Because of School Closings
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/upshot/mothers-leaving-jobs-pandemic.html

College-Age Americans Face Permanent Hit with Few Job Prospects
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-23/college-age-americans-face-permanent-hit-with-few-job-prospects

Young and Jobless in Europe: ‘It’s Been Desperate’
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/29/business/youth-unemployment-europe.html

US Economic Performance - Republican versus Democratic Administrations

The Economic Incompetence of Republican Presidents
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/democratic-administrations-historically-outperform-on-economy-by-j-bradford-delong-2020-10
Presidents and the US Economy: An Econometric Exploration
https://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.20140913
“The US economy has performed better when the president of the United States is a Democrat rather than a Republican, almost regardless of how one measures performance. For many measures, including real GDP growth (our focus), the performance gap is large and significant. This paper asks why. The answer is not found in technical time series matters nor in systematically more expansionary monetary or fiscal policy under Democrats. Rather, it appears that the Democratic edge stems mainly from more benign oil shocks, superior total factor productivity (TFP) performance, a more favorable international environment, and perhaps more optimistic consumer expectations about the near-term future”.

Trump’s Crony Capitalism
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-crony-capitalism-in-america-by-anne-krueger-2020-10

Biden’s Economic Edge
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/joe-biden-better-economic-policies-than-donald-trump-by-jeffrey-frankel-2020-10
The Economic Case for Biden
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-case-for-biden-harris-by-edmund-s-phelps-2020-09

Political Interference and Quality of US Government Institutions

How Trump waged war on his own government
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/trump-federal-civil-servants/2020/10/28/86f9598e-122a-11eb-ba42-ec6a580836ed_story.html

Trump’s War on Civil Servants Is Worse Than It Looks
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-29/trump-war-on-civil-servants-is-worse-than-it-looks

Donald Trump has desecrated the values that make America a beacon to the world
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/29/why-it-has-to-be-biden

The debate should be about the quality – not the size – of government
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/513007-the-debate-should-be-about-the-quality-not-size-of-government

Dealing with the Coronavirus Shock - East Asia versus the West

Record 200 Days with No Local Case Makes Taiwan World’s Envy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-29/this-place-hasn-t-had-a-local-coronavirus-case-in-200-days

South Korea virus response underpins sharp GDP jump
https://www.ft.com/content/40a8320e-72a8-4294-b0e5-787d8f9b897f
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-27/the-real-winner-of-the-work-from-home-economy

Devi Sridhar, professor and chair of global public health at the University of Edinburgh, notes:
https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/health/2020/10/devi-sridhar-longer-uk-delays-lockdown-longer-it-will-last
“In the West, in general, we went into a late lockdown and therefore it was a long lockdown. We spent weeks debating whether testing mattered, then we got testing up and running but the test and trace system was still not fully functional. We’ve gone in circles over how serious the virus is. I don’t think those debates happened in the countries that really locked down.”…
“I don’t think it’s been through any deliberate decision not to protect lives or livelihoods,” Sridhar said. “It’s been a neither here nor there strategy, going back and forth. They’re trying to tread the middle path but the middle path leads you nowhere, unfortunately.”

Trump’s Election Gift to China?
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/donald-trump-disputed-election-gift-to-china-by-minxin-pei-2020-10

Wednesday, October 28, 2020

For History Buffs

Misremembering the British Empire
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/11/02/misremembering-the-british-empire

Book Recommendations:

Fiscal versus Monetary Policy

The Fed Is Really Running Out of Firepower
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-28/the-federal-reserve-is-really-running-out-of-firepower

Tuesday, October 27, 2020

Taxing the Rich

If You Soak the Rich, Will They Leave?
States and cities struggling through the pandemic recession are wondering if higher taxes will raise revenue, or cause a mass exodus.
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/if-you-soak-rich-will-they-leave/616863/

The Quad versus China

India gains access to US satellites in ways Japan and Australia do
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/India-gains-access-to-US-satellites-in-ways-Japan-and-Australia-do

US and India seek strategic partnership regardless of Trump, Biden
https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/International-relations/US-China-tensions/US-and-India-seek-strategic-partnership-regardless-of-Trump-Biden

The Quad Sharpens Its Edges
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-quad-india-us-japan-australia-united-front-vs-china-by-brahma-chellaney-2020-10
Despite US President Donald Trump’s undermining of US alliances, his administration has made significant progress in bringing together the Indo-Pacific's leading democracies. And now that China has forced India's hand, a new strategic arrangement in the region is almost a foregone conclusion.

Monday, October 26, 2020

The Second Wave is Here

The U.S. and Europe are losing the coronavirus battle
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2020/10/26/united-states-europe-coronavrius-surge/

America’s Failed Response to the Pandemic
In a three-part documentary, The Washington Post explores a failed response to the coronavirus pandemic that’s left 225,000 Americans dead, despite decades of preparation in Washington.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2020/national/administrations-pandemic-documentary/

Challenges Facing US Higher Education in the Pandemic Era

Colleges Slash Budgets in the Pandemic, With ‘Nothing Off-Limits’
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/us/colleges-coronavirus-budget-cuts.html

For a normal college experience during the pandemic, these students hopped continents
https://www.washingtonpost.com/road-to-recovery/2020/10/19/johns-hopkins-italy-sais-coronavirus/

Top-Ranked U.S. Business Schools Are Losing Vital Foreign Students
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-20/u-s-business-schools-foreign-student-enrollment-down-amid-covid-visa-rules

Empty Dorms Put Squeeze on Colleges to Bail Out Billions in Debt
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-20/empty-dorms-put-squeeze-on-colleges-to-bail-out-billions-in-debt

Covid hits college budgets
https://www.politico.com/newsletters/weekly-education-coronavirus-special-edition/2020/10/05/covid-hits-college-budgets-790787

America Will Sacrifice Anything for the College Experience
https://www.theatlantic.com/technology/archive/2020/10/college-was-never-about-education/616777/

Colleges can be covid-19 hotspots. Here’s how to talk to your kid about safety.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/wellness/parents-college-students-covid/2020/10/19/c8c6b790-0eeb-11eb-b1e8-16b59b92b36d_story.html

Sunday, October 25, 2020

Weekend Readings

Photo collections from every state in the Union—a new entry each Sunday through 2020.

https://www.theatlantic.com/projects/fifty/

The Essential Agatha Christie
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/25/books/best-agatha-christie-books-murder-mystery.html

How Harris’s mother paved the way for her barrier-breaking candidacy
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/kamala-harris-mother-shyamala-gopalan/616374/

The Shrinking of the American Mind
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/opinion/Trump-biden-debates.html

Millennials and Gen Z are only a few years away from dominating the electorate
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/10/millennials-and-gen-z-will-soon-dominate-us-elections/616818/

Democracy and Dead Wood
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-24/frank-barry-s-looking-for-lincoln-in-iowa-nebraska-and-colorado

Wealthy investors seem to be exploiting land-conservation tax breaks, and the Senate is taking notice
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/23/land-conservation-tax-break-deals/

People Fear a Market Crash More Than They Have in Years
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/business/people-fear-a-market-crash-more-than-they-have-in-years.html

Financial Economics – Value Investing

NYU’ finance guru, Aswath Damodaran, on Value Investing:
https://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/10/value-investing-i-back-story.html
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/10/value-investing-ii-tough-times-for.html
http://aswathdamodaran.blogspot.com/2020/10/value-investing-iii-requiem-rebirth-or.html

Saturday, October 24, 2020

Trump's Mixed Economic Record

Trump’s Manufacturing Promises Disappoint as Economy Sours
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/26/us/politics/trump-manufacturing-jobs.html

Trump’s Economy Was Never So Great

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/23/opinion/trump-economy.html
Trump’s Biggest Economic Legacy Isn’t About the Numbers
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/24/business/economy/trump-economy-manufacturing.html

The Trump ‘Jobs Boom’ Is a Convenient Myth
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trump-jobs-boom-is-a-convenient-myth-11603298821

The debt is huge because Trump kept his promises
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/05/debt-is-huge-because-trump-kept-his-promises/
“In his first three years in office, before the coronavirus pandemic, President Trump approved a whopping $3.9 trillion in borrowing for new tax cuts and spending between 2017 and 2026. This substantially expanded the national debt during a period of strong, sustained economic growth. As far as we could ascertain, the deficit had never been as high while paired with an economy as strong as it was in 2019.
As a result, we entered this year’s health and economic crisis with a debt, expressed as a share of gross domestic product, higher than any time in U.S. history, other than just after World War II. Adding in covid-19 relief measures, the president has enacted a total of $6.6 trillion in new borrowing in his first term. The debt is now likely to exceed the size of the economy as soon as next year”.

Trump's Tariffs Failed to Fix the Trade Deficit
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-06/trump-s-tariffs-failed-to-fix-the-trade-deficit

Trump’s Jobs Record Fell Short of Promises Even Before the Virus
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-29/trump-s-jobs-record-fell-short-of-promises-even-before-the-coronavirus-pandemic

Rating the Trump Economy Pre-Covid-19? Just Average
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-08-13/how-trump-s-economic-growth-record-compares-with-past-presidents

Are we living in a computer simulation?

Are we living in a computer simulation? I don’t know. Probably.
https://www.vox.com/future-perfect/2019/4/10/18275618/simulation-hypothesis-matrix-rizwan-virk

Do We Live in a Simulation? Chances Are about 50–50
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/do-we-live-in-a-simulation-chances-are-about-50-50/

Interesting area of scientific research:

https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2016/oct/11/simulated-world-elon-musk-the-matrix

“If there are many more simulated minds than organic ones, then the chances of us being among the real minds starts to look more and more unlikely. As Terrile puts it: “If in the future there are more digital people living in simulated environments than there are today, then what is to say we are not part of that already?”

Reasons to believe that the universe is a simulation include the fact that it behaves mathematically and is broken up into pieces (subatomic particles) like a pixelated video game. “Even things that we think of as continuous – time, energy, space, volume – all have a finite limit to their size. If that’s the case, then our universe is both computable and finite. Those properties allow the universe to be simulated,” Terrile said.”

In Hinduism, there is the ancient concept of ‘Maya’:

https://www.britannica.com/topic/maya-Indian-philosophy
“Maya originally denoted the magic power with which a god can make human beings believe in what turns out to be an illusion. By extension, it later came to mean the powerful force that creates the cosmic illusion that the phenomenal world is real.”

Global Supply Chains - Shifting Away from China

Apple’s Shifting Supply Chain Creates Boomtowns in Rural Vietnam
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-21/apple-s-shifting-supply-chain-creates-boomtowns-in-rural-vietnam

Apple Cable Supplier to Start Mass Production in India Soon
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-24/apple-cable-supplier-said-to-start-mass-production-in-india-soon

Modi calls for 'trustworthy' supply chains, in alternative to China
https://asia.nikkei.com/Economy/Modi-calls-for-trustworthy-supply-chains-in-alternative-to-China

Japan, Australia and India to Launch Supply Chain Initiative
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-09-01/japan-australia-and-india-to-discuss-supply-chains-alliance

Friday, October 23, 2020

Great Books and Good Literature

The Meaning of a College Literature Class — During a Pandemic and Always
https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2020/10/20/meaning-college-literature-class-during-pandemic-always/
English departments are increasingly under pressure to justify their existence. But have the eternal lessons of great books ever mattered more?

Thursday, October 22, 2020

Rise of Millennial Investors

In defence of millennial investors
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2020/10/24/in-defence-of-millennial-investors
Wall Street will soon have to take millennial investors seriously
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/10/20/wall-street-will-soon-have-to-take-millennial-investors-seriously

Idaho is Booming

A red state with red-hot growth increasingly relies on trade with Asia. When will it turn purple?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-22/idaho-s-red-hot-economy-defies-trump-nationalism

Secret to Happiness

Are We Trading Our Happiness for Modern Comforts?
https://www.theatlantic.com/family/archive/2020/10/why-life-has-gotten-more-comfortable-less-happy/616807/
As society gets richer, people chase the wrong things.

Earnings Expectations and Current Stock Prices

Pandemic Boom Stocks Don’t Have Earnings to Support Them
https://www.wsj.com/articles/pandemic-boom-stocks-dont-have-earnings-to-support-them-11603364415

Fact versus Fiction

I Spoke to a Scholar of Conspiracy Theories and I’m Scared for Us
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/21/opinion/q-anon-conspiracy.html

The Trump ‘Jobs Boom’ Is a Convenient Myth
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-trump-jobs-boom-is-a-convenient-myth-11603298821

USA Facts
https://usafacts.org

Michael Kremer - Interview

Michael Kremer (Co-Recipient of the 2019 Nobel Prize in Economics) - Interview

Wednesday, October 21, 2020

US Economy - Short-Term and Long-Term Challenges

Economy won't bounce back until 2022 even with good vaccine rollout, new report finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/21/finance-202-economy-wont-bounce-back-until-2022-even-with-good-vaccine-rollout-new-report-finds/

Achieving a Broad-Based and Inclusive Recovery
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/brainard20201021a.pdf

After the Pandemic, a Revolution in Education and Work Awaits
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/opinion/covid-education-work.html

Lucky enough to have a pension? The Fed’s low interest rates mean it may no longer guarantee a secure retirement.
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/21/fed-low-interest-rates-pensions/

Elite Business Schools See Surge in Applications

Elite Business Schools See Surge in Applications in Lousy Economy
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-21/u-s-business-schools-mba-program-applications-are-up-amid-coronavirus-pandemic

Tuesday, October 20, 2020

Financial Economics – Interesting Items

In New 60/40 Portfolio, Riskier Hedges Are Displacing U.S. Debt

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-20/in-new-60-40-portfolio-riskier-hedges-are-displacing-u-s-debt

How Has Post-Crisis Banking Regulation Affected Hedge Funds and Prime Brokers?

https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2020/10/how-has-post-crisis-banking-regulation-affected-hedge-funds-and-prime-brokers.html

Why Central Bankers Got Serious About Digital Cash

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-20/why-central-bankers-got-serious-about-digital-cash-quicktake

University of Wisconsin launches new program:

Master of Science in Financial Economics (MSFE) program

https://msfe.wisc.edu

The Market for Citizenship

The scandal-hit market for passports and long-term visas is booming
https://www.economist.com/international/2020/10/19/the-scandal-hit-market-for-passports-and-long-term-visas-is-booming

Selling citizenship is big business—and controversial
https://www.economist.com/international/2018/09/29/selling-citizenship-is-big-business-and-controversial

China's V-Shaped Recovery

China is beating the coronavirus while Trump leads America to defeat
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/19/china-is-beating-coronavirus-while-trump-leads-america-defeat/
“But China’s success is mainly due to the application of science in a country where people are taught to respect science. We live in a country, by contrast, where the president mocks his opponent by sneering: “He’ll listen to the scientists.” This is supposed to be a bad thing?”

In a world mired in recession, China manages a V-shaped recovery
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2020/10/19/in-a-world-mired-in-recession-china-manages-a-v-shaped-recovery

With Covid-19 Under Control, China’s Economy Surges Ahead

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/18/business/china-economy-covid.html

China pulls ahead among major economies in post-covid recovery
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-economy-recovery-covid/2020/10/19/d574d08c-1204-11eb-a258-614acf2b906d_story.html

https://www.wsj.com/articles/china-acceleration-may-not-rescue-world-from-coronavirus-slowdown-11603112080

Do Airlines Deserve a Bailout?

A Controversial Take:
Airlines don’t deserve another taxpayer-financed bailout
https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-10-19/airlines-bailout-coronavirus-stimulus-bill

Politics and Labor Regulations

Trump’s Labor Secretary Is a Wrecking Ball Aimed at Workers
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/10/26/trumps-labor-secretary-is-a-wrecking-ball-aimed-at-workers

Quality of K-12 Education Matters

What Happens Before College Matters
https://www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/10/20/black-students-need-changes-policies-and-structures-beyond-higher-education
Experts agree higher education needs to do more to create equity for Black students. But more attention needs to be paid to barriers Black students face before they step foot on campus

Fooling AI and Robot Analysts

Sweet-Talking CEOs Are Starting to Outsmart the Robot Analysts
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-20/sweet-talking-ceos-are-starting-to-outsmart-the-robot-analysts
“A new era of robots reading financial statements and machines monitoring earnings calls means analysts no longer need to sweat a company’s every last word. For corporate leaders, it’s quite the opposite.
Company executives have started to adapt their statements and even their delivery to cater to the algorithms parsing text and speech for trading signals, researchers at Georgia State University and Columbia University have found”.

How to Talk When a Machine is Listening: Corporate Disclosure in the Age of AI
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27950

Trump and US Foreign Policy

The World Order That Donald Trump Revealed
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2020/10/donald-trump-foreign-policy/616773/

Monday, October 19, 2020

Africa's Controversial Dam Project

Africa’s largest dam powers dreams of prosperity in Ethiopia — and fears of hunger in Egypt
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/interactive/2020/grand-ethiopian-renaissance-dam-egypt-nile/

Estimating the Economic Impact of Covid-19

The COVID-19 Pandemic and the $16 Trillion Virus
https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2771764

Future of Movie Theaters

Why Movie Theaters Are in Panic Mode Seven Months into Coronavirus?

What Pandemic? Japanese Film Draws a Record Flood of Moviegoers
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/20/business/demon-slayer-japan-movie.html

China’s box office overtakes North America’s for the first time with its earlier pandemic recovery
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-box-office-movies-america/2020/10/20/a9264eae-1293-11eb-a258-614acf2b906d_story.html

Chinese Overseas Investments

How Chinese Corruption Spreads Misery Abroad
https://www.the-american-interest.com/2020/09/22/how-chinese-corruption-spreads-misery-abroad/
Chinese mega-projects, both at home and abroad, are not only a vehicle for corruption. They are a deadly public hazard.

Defending French Secularism

The President vs. the American Media
After terrorist attacks, France’s leader accuses the English-language media of “legitimizing this violence.”
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/11/15/business/media/macron-france-terrorism-american-islam.html

The beheading of a teacher will harden France’s belief in secularism
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/10/18/the-beheading-of-a-teacher-will-harden-frances-belief-in-secularism

Emmanuel Macron warned against mounting Islamism and the threat to freedom of expression. After a shocking attack this now sounds prescient
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/10/18/the-beheading-of-a-teacher-will-harden-frances-belief-in-secularism

Transmission of Information

PBS NOVA Documentary: A to Z: How Writing Changed the World
Discover how writing—and eventually printing—revolutionized the spread of information
https://www.pbs.org/wgbh/nova/video/a-to-z-how-writing-changed-the-world/

Sunday, October 18, 2020

Asia - Power Ratings

Which Country Wields Most Power in Asia? U.S. Leads but China Is Catching Up
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-18/who-has-most-power-in-asia-u-s-leads-china-closes-in-and-india-falls-behind

India: The country is missing its real comparative advantage by not emphasizing low-skilled labor exports.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-17/india-won-t-be-the-next-china-if-it-can-t-even-out-export-bangladesh

Saturday, October 17, 2020

Weekend Readings

Japan wants to shred its paper habit. Could it finally leave the fax behind?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/japan-fax-paper-suga/2020/10/16/fc6fcdd8-06ef-11eb-8719-0df159d14794_story.html

Turkey’s adventurism abroad is driven by opportunity and impunity
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-19/turkey-s-erdogan-gets-away-with-foreign-policy-adventurism

How a lifelong obsession with snow leopards led me to northern India
https://www.washingtonpost.com/lifestyle/travel/trailing-the-elusive-snow-leopard-in-northern-india/2020/01/09/7d592b02-2d9c-11ea-bcb3-ac6482c4a92f_story.html

Coronavirus: When India's capital became a ghost city
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-india-54164507

In India, a Dance Haven Shuts Out the World
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/07/arts/dance/india-nrityagram-virus.html
With the pandemic, Nrityagram has become a more self-contained version of itself: a refuge, with a single-minded focus on classical Indian dance.

‘If No Tourists Come, I Have No Business’: New York’s Tourism Crisis
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/travel/nyc-tourism-travel-restrictions.html

The Mad, Mad World of Niche Sports Among Ivy League–Obsessed Parents
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/11/squash-lacrosse-niche-sports-ivy-league-admissions/616474/

Profile of Bloomberg Finance Columnist Matt Levine
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/business/matt-levine-bloomberg.html

The Pandemic Sparks a Real-Estate Gold Rush in Upstate New York

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/dept-of-design/the-airbnb-gold-rush-in-upstate-new-york

A Scientist’s Reckoning with the Cruelty of Chance
https://www.newyorker.com/culture/personal-history/a-scientists-reckoning-with-the-cruelty-of-chance

US Fiscal Picture

U.S. budget deficit breached $3.1 trillion in 2020 as pandemic slammed economy
https://www.washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020/10/16/2020-budget-deficit-coronavirus/

Millennials are the poster children for government fiscal failure
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2020/10/16/millennials-are-poster-children-government-fiscal-failure/

America's Political Future

We face a choice between a true renewal and a warped fantasy of the past
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/opinion/trump-2020.html

END OUR NATIONAL CRISIS
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/16/opinion/donald-trump-worst-president.html

A Back-to-Basics Primer for Conservatives
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-17/if-biden-wins-progressives-should-listen-to-conservatives

Friday, October 16, 2020

Man versus Nature

The Time Bomb at the Top of the World
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/arctic-sea-ice-depletion-short-lived-climate-pollutants-by-mario-molina-and-durwood-zaelke-2020-10

Earth’s New Gilded Era
The world is getting hotter, and the divide between rich and poor is getting bigger.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/heat-human-rights-issue-21st-century/616693/

A Toxic Alien Is Taking Over Russia
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/03/opinion/sunday/russia-hogweed.html

The Age of Nature [MUST WATCH]
https://www.pbs.org/show/age-nature/

Household Consumption/Saving Behavior

Jobless Workers Built Up Some Savings. Then the $600 Checks Stopped.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/upshot/jobless-workers-built-up-some-savings-then-the-600-checks-stopped.html

Online Shopping the Pandemic Away? There's a Better Way
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-16/personal-finance-should-i-shop-or-save-money-in-a-pandemic

Monetary Policy in the Pandemic Era

Does Singapore have the world's best central banker?
https://asia.nikkei.com/Opinion/Does-Singapore-have-the-world-s-best-central-banker

America’s Money Men Could Save Us. But They’re Stuck in the Seventies.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/16/opinion/americas-money-men-could-save-us-but-theyre-stuck-in-the-seventies.html

Thursday, October 15, 2020

Royal Enfield – Retro Chic

An Indian-Made Motorcycle with a Retro Look Is Coming After Harley
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-10-14/india-s-royal-enfield-motorcycle-is-coming-after-harley-davidson-hog

Entrepreneurship During the Pandemic Era

Those ‘Gales of Creative Destruction’ Are for Real
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-23/larry-kudlow-s-right-about-pandemic-gales-of-creative-destruction

Covid Recession Spawning Entrepreneurs in U.S. Amid Joblessness
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-14/covid-recession-spawning-entrepreneurs-in-u-s-amid-joblessness

Related:
Has US business dynamism declined?
https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/518999-has-us-business-dynamism-declined
Creative Destruction and Business Dynamism
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2020/10/creative-destruction-and-business.html

America’s Convoluted Tax System

Tax Burden Equal to 70% Rate Crushes Americans Unable to Pay It
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-15/tax-burden-equal-to-70-rate-crushes-americans-unable-to-pay-it

Marginal Net Taxation of Americans' Labor Supply
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27164.pdf

Understanding Modern Germany

Germany’s Better. No, Worse. Wait, What?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-15/is-germany-exceptional-or-not

To understand Germany's successes, we must concentrate less on Angela Merkel
https://www.newstatesman.com/international/places/2020/09/understand-germanys-successes-we-must-concentrate-less-angela-merkel

Thirty years on from reunification, the contours of the new Germany are still emerging
https://www.newstatesman.com/world/europe/2020/10/thirty-years-reunification-contours-new-germany-are-still-emerging

Climate Change and Global Inequality

The world is getting hotter, and the divide between rich and poor is getting bigger. In the Earth’s new gilded era, heat will be the defining human-rights issue.
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/10/heat-human-rights-issue-21st-century/616693/

Wednesday, October 14, 2020

China's Ambitious Plans for Shenzhen

China’s Xi lays out plan to build Shenzhen into global rival to troubled Hong Kong
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pacific/china-xi-speech-hong-kong-shenzhen/2020/10/13/abcf261e-0daa-11eb-b404-8d1e675ec701_story.html

North American Real Estate Market

Manhattan Emptied Out During the Pandemic. But Big Tech Is Moving In.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/nyregion/big-tech-nyc-office-space.html

North America’s Biggest Housing-Bubble Risk Defies a Pandemic
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-14/north-america-s-biggest-housing-bubble-risk-defies-a-pandemic

Taxes and Economic Growth

Joe Biden's tax plan would barely dent growth, conservative group finds
https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2020/10/14/finance-202-joe-biden-tax-plan-would-barely-dent-growth-conservative-group-finds/

Related:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2019/01/optimal-tax-rate-debate_26.html

Quality of Life - France versus US

Why I’m Glad I Left America: Life in France is better, especially now
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/10/american-emigre/616705/

Tuesday, October 13, 2020

Vietnam - The Next Asian Miracle?

Is Vietnam the Next ‘Asian Miracle’?
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/opinion/vietnam-economy.html

Labor Market Comparison – US versus Germany

As U.S. unemployment soared, Germany’s barely budged. Is America’s safety net enough?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/10/13/germany-unemployment/

India Undertakes Major Economic Reforms

India Turns to Economic Overhaul as Growth Prospects Slide Amid Coronavirus
https://www.wsj.com/articles/india-turns-to-economic-overhaul-as-growth-prospects-slide-amid-coronavirus-11602586802

To revive the economy, the government should focus first on getting a few special economic zones right.
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-26/india-needs-to-copy-china-s-special-economic-zones-better

Modi Bets the Farm. It Was About Time
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-09-23/modi-bets-the-farm-in-a-gamble-to-relaunch-india-s-economy

https://www.economist.com/asia/2020/10/10/for-good-and-ill-indias-prime-minister-is-hard-at-work

Trends in Inequality - Measurement Issues

Trends in US Income and Wealth Inequality: Revising After the Revisionists by Emmanuel Saez & Gabriel Zucman
https://www.nber.org/papers/w27921
Recent studies argue that US inequality has increased less than previously thought, in particular due to a more modest rise of wealth and capital income at the top (Smith et al., 2019; Smith, Zidar and Zwick, 2020; Auten and Splinter, 2019). We examine the claims made in these papers point by point, separating genuine improvements from arguments that do not appear to us well-grounded empirically or conceptually. Taking stock of this body of work, and factoring in other improvements, we provide a comprehensive update of our estimates of US income and wealth inequality. Although some of the points raised by the revisionists are valuable, the core quantitative findings of this literature do not appear to be supported by the data. The low capital share of private business income estimated in Smith et al. (2019) is not consistent with the large capital stock of these businesses. In Smith, Zidar and Zwick (2020), the interest rate assigned to the wealthy is higher than in the datasets where both income and wealth can be observed, leading to downward biased top wealth shares; capitalizing equities using almost only dividends dramatically underestimates the wealth of billionaires relative to the Forbes 400. In Auten and Splinter (2019), business profits earned by the top 1% but not taxable (due in particular to generous depreciation rules) are classified as tax evasion; tax evasion is then allocated to the bottom 99% based on an erroneous reading of random audit data. Our revised series show a rise of inequality similar to Saez and Zucman (2016) and Piketty, Saez, and Zucman (2018) while allowing for a more granular depiction of the composition of wealth and income at the top.

Related:
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2020/01/the-inequality-debate.html

IMF World Economic Outlook

IMF World Economic Outlook – October 2020
https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2020/October/English/ExecSum.ashx?la=en

Evolution of US K-12 Education System

School Is (Whisper It) a Form of Child Care
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/13/opinion/coronavirus-schools-child-care-centers.html

The 2020 Nobel Prize in Economics

The quest for the perfect auction
https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2020/09/advanced-economicsciencesprize2020.pdf

https://www.nobelprize.org/uploads/2020/09/popular-economicsciencesprize2020.pdf

Every day, auctions distribute astronomical values between buyers and sellers. This year’s Laureates, Paul Milgrom and Robert Wilson, have improved auction theory and invented new auction formats, benefitting sellers, buyers and taxpayers around the world.

Making Auctions Work in Practice Is Worth a Nobel
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-12/economics-nobel-goes-to-two-masters-of-auction-design-milgrom-and-wilson

The Nobel prize in economics rewards advances in auction theory
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2020/10/12/the-nobel-prize-in-economics-rewards-advances-in-auction-theory

The $120 Billion Idea Behind This Year’s Nobel Prize in Economics
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-12/the-120-billion-idea-behind-this-year-s-nobel-prize-in-economics

Economists are Starting to Think Like Engineers
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-12/economists-are-starting-to-think-like-engineers

The auctions pioneered by this year’s economics laureates have backfired badly in some emerging markets
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-12/economics-nobel-prize-celebrates-auctions-that-failed-india

Monday, October 12, 2020

The Working from Home Phenomenon

Working from Home Is Here to Stay, So Let’s Get It Right
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-12/with-remote-working-pandemic-has-altered-society-for-the-better

The Intersection of Law, Economics, and Politics in America

Charles Koch’s Big Bet on Barrett
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/12/opinion/charles-koch-amy-coney-barrett.htm

Originalism, Amy Coney Barrett’s approach to the Constitution, explained
https://www.vox.com/21497317/originalism-amy-coney-barrett-constitution-supreme-court

No Other Western Democracy Allows This
Only in America does so much power rest in the hands of elderly judges.
https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/09/supreme-court-retirement-age/616458/

Taiwan's Independence

China’s Insistence That Taiwan Isn’t a Country Starts Backfiring
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-11/china-s-insistence-that-taiwan-isn-t-a-country-starts-backfiring

The Tao of Rafael Nadal
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/11/sports/tennis/french-open-rafael-nadal.html

The Many Sides of Novak Djokovic, Out There for All to See
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/08/sports/tennis/the-many-sides-of-novak-djokovic-out-there-for-all-to-see.html

Women’s Tennis has a New Star
https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/10/iga-swiatek-beats-sofia-kenin-french-open-final-history

Related:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2020/10/09/making-iga-swiatek-teenager-tipped-become-next-tennis-superstar/
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2020/10/11/iga-swiatek-now-reaping-benefits-putting-studies-ahead-pursuing/

Iga Swiatek makes a good point:
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/tennis/2020/10/10/kenin-vs-swiatek-french-open-final-2020-live-score/
“Asked about this broad range of options, Swiatek insisted that she still has a lot to learn “Because I'm only 19. I know my game isn't developed perfectly,” she replied. “Also I think the biggest change for me is to be consistent.
“I think this is what women's tennis is struggling with,” added Swiatek. “That's why we have so many new grand-slam winners – because we are not as consistent as Rafa, Roger, and Novak. It's going to be really hard to achieve that. But right now I'm just going to enjoy the moment. I'll think about my future goals later.””

Lasting Impact of the Pandemic

The Next Big Shift in Economics Takes Shape Under Covid Shadow
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-10-11/the-next-big-shift-in-economics-takes-shape-under-covid-shadow

The Big Question: How Can Retail Chains Survive the Pandemic?
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-11/why-home-goods-retailer-williams-sonoma-is-thriving-in-the-pandemic

Friday, October 9, 2020

Talk Radio and the Radicalization of the American Right

Talk Radio Is Turning Millions of Americans Into Conservatives
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/opinion/talk-radio-conservatives-trumpism.html

The Crisis of Conservatism
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-10-11/john-micklethwait-and-adrian-wooldridge-on-the-crisis-of-conservatism

Welfare Economics

Economics with a Moral Compass? Welfare Economics: Past, Present, and Future
https://www.annualreviews.org/doi/pdf/10.1146/annurev-economics-020520-020136

Video - Amartya Sen and Angus Deaton

https://player.vimeo.com/video/440032447

Profile of Emily Oster

Emily Oster’s Pandemic Parenting Guidance Is All About the Data
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2020-10-08/economist-emily-oster-is-helping-parents-stay-sane-in-the-coronavirus-pandemic

Value Investing - International Stocks

Value Stocks May Offer Best Prospects in Emerging Markets
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/09/business/mutfund/stocks-coronavirus.html
Many stocks in developing nations have underperformed for years, but they could thrive in a post-pandemic world.

Attention Economy