Thursday, April 30, 2020
Advice for the Class of 2020
Inspiring Words from Bill and Melinda Gates:
The Better World That You Will Build
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-better-world-that-you-will-build-11588256730
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-better-world-that-you-will-build-11588256730
Amy Chua - https://www.amychua.com
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BLAST FROM THE PAST:
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BLAST FROM THE PAST:
The Statute of Limitations on College Grades
http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-statute-of-limitations-on-college.html
Calvin Trillin (1990):
“What I'm saying is that when it comes to college grades, there is a sort of statute of limitations.
It kicks in pretty early. By the time you're 28, nobody much cares whether or not you had to take Bonehead English or how you did in it. If you happen to be a pompous 28, wearing a Phi Beta Kappa key on your watch chain will make you seem more pompous. (If we're being absolutely truthful, the watch chain itself is a mistake.) Go ahead and tell that attractive young woman at the bar that you graduated magna cum laude. To employ a phrase I once heard from a country comedian in central Florida, `She just flat out do not care.' The statute of limitation has already run out.http://conversableeconomist.blogspot.com/2019/04/the-statute-of-limitations-on-college.html
Calvin Trillin (1990):
“What I'm saying is that when it comes to college grades, there is a sort of statute of limitations.
This information about the statute of limitation ought to be comforting to the college seniors who are now limping toward commencement. In fact, it may be that commencement speakers -- some of whom, I regret to say, tend to wear Phi Beta Kappa keys on their watch chains -- ought to be telling the assembled degree recipients. Instead of saying 'life is a challenge' or ‘commencement means beginning,' maybe a truly considerate commencement speaker would say, 'Take this degree, and, as to the question of how close you came to not getting it, your secret is safe with us.'
It's probably a good thing that after a while nobody cares. On the occasion of my college class' 25th reunion, I did a survey, using my usual scientific controls, and came to the conclusion that we had finally reached the point at which income seemed to be precisely in inverse proportion to academic standing in the class. I think this is the sort of information that students cramming desperately for the history final are better off not having.”
It's probably a good thing that after a while nobody cares. On the occasion of my college class' 25th reunion, I did a survey, using my usual scientific controls, and came to the conclusion that we had finally reached the point at which income seemed to be precisely in inverse proportion to academic standing in the class. I think this is the sort of information that students cramming desperately for the history final are better off not having.”
The Labor Market is in Distress
How the pandemic consumed the labor market
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/30/jobless-claims-industry/
Joblessness is rising far more slowly in Europe than in U.S., new figures show
The Many New Indicators of an Epic Job Collapse
Joblessness is rising far more slowly in Europe than in U.S., new figures show
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/europe/joblessness-is-rising-far-more-slowly-in-europe-than-in-the-us-during-the-pandemic-new-figures-show/2020/04/30/7a5a050a-8a5a-11ea-80df-d24b35a568ae_story.html
Workers Likely to Fare Better in Nations with Coronavirus Job-Retention Programs
https://www.wsj.com/articles/workers-likely-to-fare-better-in-nations-with-coronavirus-job-retention-programs-11588250818
Workers Likely to Fare Better in Nations with Coronavirus Job-Retention Programs
https://www.wsj.com/articles/workers-likely-to-fare-better-in-nations-with-coronavirus-job-retention-programs-11588250818
Politicization of US Intelligence Services
Trump Officials Are Said to Press Spies to Link
Virus and Wuhan Labs
We know what happened the last time that politicians interfered
with intelligence agencies:
Hubris: The Inside Story of Spin, Scandal, and the
Selling of the Iraq War
Wednesday, April 29, 2020
Which Societies are Best Prepared to Deal with Pandemics?
Vietnam offers tough lessons for U.S. on
coronavirus
How South Korea Stopped COVID-19 Early
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-south-korea-stopped-covid19-early-by-myoung-hee-kim-2020-04
Experts say pandemic reactions highlight US-Asia
culture gap
“"A society like the U.S. is really not prepared
to come together collectively and prioritize the collective good over the
rights of the individual," Kanter continued. "We're just not built
for this."
Kanter said more collectivist cultures, including
Asian ones, appear to be better at handling a pandemic. He cited a 2008 study
published by London's Royal Society that suggested dealing with past disease
outbreaks may have helped shape collectivist cultures in the first place.”
Pathogen prevalence predicts human cross-cultural
variability in individualism/collectivism
Abstract
Pathogenic diseases impose selection pressures on the
social behaviour of host populations. In humans (Homo sapiens), many
psychological phenomena appear to serve an antipathogen defence function. One
broad implication is the existence of cross-cultural differences in human
cognition and behaviour contingent upon the relative presence of pathogens in
the local ecology. We focus specifically on one fundamental cultural variable:
differences in individualistic versus collectivist values. We suggest that
specific behavioural manifestations of collectivism (e.g. ethnocentrism,
conformity) can inhibit the transmission of pathogens; and so we hypothesize
that collectivism (compared with individualism) will more often characterize
cultures in regions that have historically had higher prevalence of pathogens.
Drawing on epidemiological data and the findings of worldwide cross-national
surveys of individualism/collectivism, our results support this hypothesis: the
regional prevalence of pathogens has a strong positive correlation with
cultural indicators of collectivism and a strong negative correlation with
individualism. The correlations remain significant even when controlling for
potential confounding variables. These results help to explain the origin of a
paradigmatic cross-cultural difference, and reveal previously undocumented
consequences of pathogenic diseases on the variable nature of human societies.
Risk to America's Long Term Growth Potential
By turning away the world’s best talent, U.S.
industrial and tech leadership might lose out to China and other nations.
A small sample of India-born CEOs:
- IBM CEO Arvind Krishna
- Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella
- Google CEO Sundar Pichai
- Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen
- Mastercard CEO Ajay Banga
- Novartis CEO Vasant Narasimhan
Emerging Markets - Important Trends
Friend request: How India's battle with Facebook will
change the internet
Related:
Indian researcher opens taps on cheap drinking
water
The Coronavirus Outbreak - Scientific/Policy Debates
U.S. Coronavirus Death Toll Is Far Higher Than
Reported, C.D.C. Data Suggests
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2020/04/pandemic-confusing-uncertainty/610819/
What We Don’t Know About COVID-19
Lessons from the Economic-Epidemiological Frontier
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/economic-epidemiological-models-favor-covid19-social-distancing-by-christopher-pissarides-et-al-2020-04
Ecuador’s coronavirus horror: bodies ‘stacked seven
high’ in bathrooms as morgues fill up
Related:
US Economic and Financial Conditions: An Update
U.S. Economy Shrinks at 4.8% Pace, Signaling Start
of Recession
U.S. economy shrank 4.8 percent in first quarter,
the biggest decline since the Great Recession
Worst Economy in a Decade. What’s Next? ‘Worst in
Our Lifetime.’
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/29/business/economy/gdp-economy-coronavirus.html
Pending home sales tank nearly 21% in March, but
Realtors claim prices will hold up
City and state layoffs begin, threatening health,
education, safety and sanitation
https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/04/29/cities-states-layoffs-furloughs-coronavirus/
Fiscal Crises Grip U.S., Europe Over Aid to Their Weakest States
Fiscal Crises Grip U.S., Europe Over Aid to Their Weakest States
The Man with the U.S. Economy in His Hands
World’s Richest Are Waiting for New Dip in Stocks
Before Buying
“The majority of the world’s wealthiest investors are
waiting for stocks to drop further before buying again, on concerns about the
pandemic’s impact on the global economy, according to a poll by UBS Global
Wealth Management.
Among the surveyed investors and business owners with
at least $1 million in investable assets or in annual revenue, 61% want to see
equities fall another 5% to 20% before buying, while 23% say it’s already a
good time to do so. Some 16% say that now is not the time to load up on stocks
as it’s a bear market”.
When the Big Get Bigger, Active Stockpickers Feel
Even More Pain
Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After
Crisis
Who’s Profiting from the Coronavirus Crisis?
Tuesday, April 28, 2020
Melissa Dell Wins the 2020 John Bates Clark Award
Melissa Dell, Clark Medalist 2020
American Economic Association Honors and Awards Committee
- April 2020
A central question in history, political economy and
economic development is the role that institutions play in the development of
different societies. Through her pioneering careful and creative data
collection and empirical work, Melissa Dell has advanced our understanding of
the role state and other institutions play in the daily lives of and economic
outcomes of ordinary people. In doing so she has also given a new energy and
direction to the entire field of political economy and development.
Historians (e.g., Engerman and Sokolov) have long
argued for the persistence of institutions and the “long shadow” of historical
events on developing countries. For example, cross-national studies have noted
that Latin America and North America organized labor differently during
colonial periods and used cross-country historical data to support the idea
that these differences have had long-run impacts. More generally, Acemoglu,
Johnson, and Robinson compare the experience of countries with different
institutions set in place during colonial time for largely accidental reasons,
showing that these early differences continue to matter today.
In her work, Dell goes beyond the cross-country
evidence, using historical accidents or peculiarities to shed light on
persistent effects of institutional differences, including different in the
organization of the state. She exploits historical settings in which she is able
to very convincingly establish the persistent impacts of specific institutions
as well as explore specific channels through which these impacts occur.
Past
Winners (2010-2019):
2019: Emi Nakamura
2018: Parag Pathak
2017: Dave Donaldson
2016: Yuliy Sannikov
2015: Roland Fryer
2014: Matthew Gentzkow
2013: Raj Chetty
2012: Amy Finkelstein
2011: Jonathan Levin
2010: Esther Duflo
Financial Markets and the Federal Reserve
Stock market rebounds while unemployment spikes,
showing reach and limits of Fed’s muscle
Investors Bet Giant Companies Will Dominate After
Crisis
$500 billion bailout plan for large companies has
no requirements to preserve jobs or limit executive pay
The Federal Reserve’s coronavirus aid program lacks
restrictions Congress placed on companies seeking financial help under other
programs.
Monday, April 27, 2020
Nigeria's Perfect Economic Storm
Oil Slump, Coronavirus Create a Perfect Storm for
Nigeria’s Economy
Nigeria Naira’s Parallel-Market Plunge Hints at
More Woes
Coronavirus Crisis and American Medicine
What the Coronavirus Crisis Reveals About American
Medicine
Jill Lepore - Writings on American History
The Last Time Democracy Almost Died
Kent State and the War That Never Ended
Harvard Historian Jill Lepore notes:
“What is the liberal case for the nation?
Nation-states are people with a common past, half-history, half-myth, who live
under the rule of a government in the form of a state. Liberal nation-states
are collections of individuals whose rights as citizens are guaranteed by the
government. The United States is a liberal, democratic nation held together by
the strength of our ideas and by the force of our disagreements.”
The Sharpened Quill: Was Thomas Paine too much of a
freethinker for the country he helped free? By Jill Lepore
Famous Quotes of Thomas Paine (The
Age of Reason):
·
“I have always strenuously supported the
right of every man to his own opinion, however different that opinion might be
to mine. He who denies to another this right, makes a slave of himself to his
present opinion, because he precludes himself the right of changing it.”
·
“Whether we sleep or wake, the vast machinery
of the universe still goes on.”
·
“Man cannot make principles, he can only
discover them.”
These Truths by Jill Lepore – Review:
The Legend of Michael Jordan and 1990s Chicago Bulls
The Mythos of Michael Jordan Continues
https://www.theatlantic.com/culture/archive/2020/04/michael-jordan-the-last-dance-nba-savior/610687/
“With The Last Dance, his patience has been
rewarded, and so has the public’s. The series, which premiered last Sunday and
is airing new episodes over the next month, serves as an education, a
reintroduction, and a spiritual reunion for one of the great basketball teams
of all time. It is as farcically self-involved as it sounds, but how else would
one capture Jordan’s singular, single-minded essence? The hypnotic montages of
Jordan dismantling defenders would be enough to placate the masses in these
days of isolation”.
The Need for ‘Impartial’ Media – Nick Hornby on the Importance of BBC
Famous novelist Nick Hornby on the significance of
BBC
“Netflix can help us forget it, but it can’t explain,
inform, illuminate. In the US, people have literally been made ill by the
mendacity and wilful stupidity of a popular TV news channel of the type that
the government seems to want to see in the UK; our national broadcaster,
meanwhile, has tried to inform and educate us while entertaining us, as its
remit has always been”.
What Happens if America Does Not Want to Lead the World?
The pandemic and the waning of American prestige
The battle for humanity and solidarity in the
post-American world.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/24/opinion/coronavirus-democracy-europe.html
The End of the US-China Relationship
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/end-of-us-china-relationship-harms-both-sides-by-stephen-s-roach-2020-04
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/end-of-us-china-relationship-harms-both-sides-by-stephen-s-roach-2020-04
Stephen Roach notes:
“Although these tectonic shifts will leave most
Americans worse off, the US seems to be shrugging its collective shoulders.
America First has resonated with widespread wariness of globalization (now
reinforced by concerns over supply-chain vulnerability). Many Americans are
angry over allegedly unfair trade deals and practices, indignant at seemingly
disproportionate US funding for institutions like the International Monetary
Fund and the World Bank, and suspicious that the US security umbrella in
Europe, Asia, and elsewhere encourages free riders and others not paying their
fair share.
Paradoxically, this inward turn comes at precisely the
moment when America’s already depressed domestic saving is likely to come under
enormous pressure from an explosion of pandemic-related government deficits.
Not only does that imply deepening current-account and trade deficits (the
nemesis of the America First agenda), but it also poses a major challenge to
longer-term economic growth”.
The Post-Pandemic Economy - How Different Will Things Be?
Tech giants are profiting — and getting more
powerful — even as the global economy tanks
There’s Really Only One Way to Reopen the Economy
The Pandemic Will Change American Retail Forever
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/04/how-pandemic-will-change-face-retail/610738/
The Scramble for Delivery Robots Is on and Startups Can Barely Keep Up
The Scramble for Delivery Robots Is on and Startups Can Barely Keep Up
https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-scramble-for-delivery-robots-is-on-and-startups-can-barely-keep-up-11587787199
How robots contribute to easing coronovirus fallout
The coronavirus pandemic has exposed the overreliance
of companies and governments on China for just about everything, from cars to
medicines. But they will not be packing up and leaving China anytime soon.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/26/opinion/coronavirus-economy-reopen.html
Crowding and the Coronavirus: The Key to Reopening
Crowding and the Coronavirus: The Key to Reopening
Future of Higher Education
Coronavirus bursts the US college education bubble
A message from President Daniels (President of
Purdue University and former Governor of Indiana) regarding fall semester
Durham University retracts controversial plan to
provide online-only degrees
What If Colleges Don’t Reopen Until 2021?
Pricing Pressures Escalate
Will Parents Pay?
Sunday, April 26, 2020
Progress, Disruption and the Failure of Imagination
We should know by now that progress isn’t
guaranteed — and often backfires
Robert Samuelson notes:
“We Americans are progress junkies, as I’ve written
many times. We believe that tomorrow ought to be better than today, just as
today was better than yesterday. This optimism, in part, defines us as a
people. We assume that progress is the natural order of things. Problems are
meant to be solved. History is an upward curve of well-being. But what if all
this is a fantasy that, ironically, exposes us to more social and economic
disruption?
If you look back on recent history, our most powerful
disruptions shared one characteristic: They were not widely foreseen. This was
true of the terrorism of 9/11; the financial crisis of 2008-2009 and the
parallel Great Recession; and now the coronavirus pandemic — with all its
destructive side effects on public health, the economy and our national psyche.
In each case, there was a failure of imagination, as
Tom Friedman has noted. Warnings found little receptiveness among the public or
government officials. We didn’t think what happened could happen. The
presumption of progress bred complacency. To emphasize: There was a failure of
imagination in each case.” Coronavirus Info for the Scientifically Minded
Bill Gates – The first modern pandemic
U.S. deaths soared in early weeks of pandemic,
exceeding number attributed to covid-19
Latin American gravediggers fear virus death toll
higher than admitted
The Coronavirus Isn’t Just the Flu, Bro
Projecting the transmission dynamics of SARS-CoV-2
through the post-pandemic period
https://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2020/05/04/seattles-leaders-let-scientists-take-the-lead-new-yorks-did-not
The latest on the coronavirus
R0, the Messy Metric That May Soon Shape Our Lives,
Explained
Complexity of the Basic Reproduction Number (R0)
Quantifying the Wellbeing Costs of Covid-19
https://nzinitiative.org.nz/reports-and-media/reports/research-note-quantifying-the-wellbeing-costs-of-covid-19/
https://nzinitiative.org.nz/reports-and-media/reports/research-note-quantifying-the-wellbeing-costs-of-covid-19/
How South Korea Stopped COVID-19 Early
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-south-korea-stopped-covid19-early-by-myoung-hee-kim-2020-04
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-south-korea-stopped-covid19-early-by-myoung-hee-kim-2020-04
Seattle’s Leaders Let Scientists Take the Lead. New York’s Did Not
Why the worst fears about Florida’s Covid-19
outbreak haven’t been realized (so far)
What the world can learn from Kerala about how to
fight covid-19
Saturday, April 25, 2020
Why/When Did the American Economy/Society Become So Complicated?
This Pandemic Is an Opportunity for Radical
Simplification
Andreas Kluth
“… Something similar was happening in the societies of
rich countries. We kept adding layers of complication: new bureaucracies,
legislation, divisions of labor, tax loopholes, and so forth. The European
Union is one example, but the U.S. is arguably worse. According to one
influential thesis proposed in 2013, America has become a “kludgeocracy.”
“Kludge” is a term from the software world for a
clumsy patch that doesn’t solve the bigger issue, thereby creating even more complexity
and future problems. This is easily observed in America’s contemporary
governance, or in its systems of health care, education and taxation. Ask, for
example, any new visitor to the U.S. what the following gibberish could be
about: 401(k), IRA, Roth IRA, Keogh? Nobody would guess it has something to do
with retirement saving”.
Why we can’t build
Why we can’t build
Ezra Klein notes:
“The result is a system biased toward inaction. The left can’t remake American health care. The right can’t voucherize American schools. The left can’t pass a climate bill. The right can’t privatize Social Security. Neither side can rewrite our immigration laws, hence the turn towards oscillating executive orders. Neither side can pass their infrastructure packages. Neither side can reform social insurance. …
You can see this if you attend a planning meeting in San Francisco and watch the line of people who assemble to oppose even the most modest development. You can see it in California’s inability to build high-speed rail, despite tens of billions of dollars in federal subsidies, because the state got so trapped in its own vetocracy it couldn’t just build the damn thing in a straight line. You can see it in the inability of American cities to build public transit at cost and quality levels that simply rival that of poorer, older European cities, to say nothing of leapfrogging the new development in Asia.”
Should US States Default on their Debt?
McConnell’s rejection of federal aid for states
risks causing a depression, analysts say
“The Senate majority leader is prioritizing the
Republican Party rather than the American people during this crisis”.
U.S. State Bankruptcy Was a Farce Then and Now
Investment Risk
The 20 Minutes That Broke the U.S. Oil Market
Stock Fire Sales of the Crisis Era Haunt Equity
Bulls
Yes, Stocks Have Rallied. Just Don’t Get
Complacent.
https://www.barrons.com/articles/stocks-have-rallied-on-the-feds-actions-but-dont-get-complacent-51587774883
Get Set for Bitcoin ‘Halving’! Here’s What That
Means
Coronavirus Has Popped the Boeing and Airbus Bubble
Friday, April 24, 2020
Brazil - Increasing Political Risk
Political Risk – Brazil [REAL-TIME CASE STUDY]
“Sergio Moro, the former judge who rose to fame as the
face of Brazil’s largest anti-corruption probe, resigned from his post as
justice minister amid what he saw as political interference, dealing a blow to
the government of President Jair Bolsonaro.
“It’s my duty to protect the federal police, and I
tried to seek alternatives to avoid a political crisis amid a pandemic,” he
said at a press conference in Brasilia to explain his decision. “I’ll start
packing my things and tender my letter of resignation. I can’t go on without
ensuring the federal police its autonomy.”
Brazilian markets sank amid concern the departure
would exacerbate political risk in Latin America’s largest economy. The
currency sank more than 3% to as low as 5.7106 per U.S. dollar, by far the
worst performer among emerging markets on Friday. Stocks fell 7%.”
Brazil's Challenge: Flattening Not One Curve, But
Three by LUCIANO SOBRAL
A Lesson in Statistics – Sampling Techniques and Extrapolation
How common is Covid-19? What 2 controversial
antibody studies can and can’t tell us.
Feud over Stanford coronavirus study: ‘The authors
owe us all an apology’
Concerns with that Stanford study of coronavirus prevalence
Do we Laugh or Do we Cry?
‘Stable genius’ or dangerous ignoramus?
President Trump actually stated the following:
““And then I see the disinfectant, where it knocks it
out, in a minute. Is there a way we can do something like that? By injection,
inside, or almost a cleaning, because you see it gets in the lungs and it does
a tremendous number on the lungs. So it would be interesting to check that.
You’re going to have to use medical doctors, right? But it sounds interesting
to me.”
Makers of Lysol Warn Against Ingesting
Disinfectants
Populism and the 2020 Elections
Zakaria notes:
“Populism has always fundamentally been a protest
movement of outsiders railing against a corrupt elite that runs the country.
Right-wing populism, additionally, makes a distinction between the “real
people” and “others” — who tend to be foreigners, immigrants, blacks, Jews and
other minorities.
This strategy works well when you are outside
government. Once you’re inside, though, you face a challenge. Politicians who
win elections usually try to broaden their base and unify the nation. But
populism depends on division and dissatisfaction”.
Thursday, April 23, 2020
Asset Market Performance: Stocks versus Bonds; Domestic versus Foreign
Question Everything You Know About Bonds Versus
Stocks
Related:
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2020-04-23/coronavirus-fed-denies-active-bond-managers-a-crisis-star-turn
GMO 7-YEAR ASSET CLASS FORECAST: 1Q 2020
GMO – Forecasting Asset Returns
Economic forecasters got the 2010s wrong. What will
the next decade bring?
The Easy Way to Invest in Emerging Market:
3 Emerging Markets ETFs to Watch in 2020
Diversified Emerging Mkts
High-growth emerging economies and the companies that
propel them
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