Bulgaria: How to slow down the world’s
fastest-shrinking country
US Millennials to the Rescue
Monday, September 30, 2019
Resource Curse – The Case of CAR
Gems, Warlords and Mercenaries: Russia’s Playbook
in Central African Republic
Saturday, September 28, 2019
What Matters More in Education: Technology or Teacher Quality?
Classroom Technology Doesn’t Make the Grade
Quality of Teachers Truly Matters:
The Education Crisis: Being in School Is Not the
Same as Learning
Are Markets Amoral?
Why Wall Street Loves Strongmen
Ruchir Sharma, Morgan Stanley’s Chief Global Strategist,
notes:
“The harsh reality is that markets are amoral, instinctively
neutral barometers of economic performance, and they will at times ignore the
brutality and excesses of strongmen for a simple reason: Facing little or no
resistance from legislatures, courts or independent watchdogs, strongmen can
push through sweeping reforms — particularly in emerging economies, where
political institutions and the rule of law are relatively weak.”
Friday, September 27, 2019
Globalization and Offshoring - Reality versus Hype
The White-Collar Job Apocalypse That Didn’t Happen
New Research Finding: Overboard on Offshore Fears
https://www.upwork.com/press/economics/report-overboard-on-offshore-fears/
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/27/business/economy/jobs-offshoring.html
NYTIMES piece notes:
NYTIMES piece notes:
Economists once warned that office jobs in the
United States would soon follow factory jobs in moving overseas. New research
suggests that jobs may be moving to other parts of the country instead.
New Research Finding: Overboard on Offshore Fears
https://www.upwork.com/press/economics/report-overboard-on-offshore-fears/
--
It is rather strange that the NYTIMES article fails to
mention the numerous debates that occurred in the mid-2000s over the issue of offshoring. It only
presents Alan Blinder’s hypothesis – which was not necessarily the mainstream view even back in 2006-2007. In fact, noted Columbia
University economist Bhagwati strongly disagreed with Blinder’s basic hypothesis
regarding potential job losses arising from offshoring (click on hyperlink below):
So did Harvard’s Greg Mankiw:
THE POLITICS AND ECONOMICS OF OFFSHORE OUTSOURCING
by N. Gregory Mankiw and Phillip Swagel
Thursday, September 26, 2019
Wednesday, September 25, 2019
Saving Capitalism and Democratic Political Systems
With the US and China, Two Types of Capitalism Are
Competing With Each Other
https://promarket.org/with-the-us-and-china-two-types-of-capitalism-are-competing-with-each-other/
https://promarket.org/with-the-us-and-china-two-types-of-capitalism-are-competing-with-each-other/
“Muscular regulation is often required to ensure
genuine competition – but all too often, the political right has a knee-jerk reaction
against regulation, and the political left has a knee-jerk reaction against
competition. A competitive free market is a good thing. But like tabby cats, it
does not exist in the wild.”
The Cost of America’s Oligopoly Problem
Related:
Centrist Libertarianism
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2019/01/centrist-libertarianism-rethinking-role.htmlHistory Lesson: Oil's Role in the Modern Economy
'The devil's excrement': How did oil become so
important?
International Affairs - Problems Galore
China Wants the World to Stay Silent on Muslim
Camps. It’s Succeeding.
How America’s Af-Pak policy has imposed enduring
security costs on India
https://chellaney.net/2019/09/17/how-americas-af-pak-policy-has-imposed-enduring-security-costs-on-india/
The central mistake of Trump’s Iran policy
The central mistake of Trump’s Iran policy
Iran Might Be America’s Enemy, but Saudi Arabia Is No Friend
The End of Saudi Arabia’s Illusion
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/19/opinion/saudi-arabia-attack.html
Background Readings:
Roger Cohen’s brilliant assessment of Middle Eastern affairs –
Insightful analysis by Michael Axworthy:
http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2015/11/why-tehran-hates-isis-how-religious-rifts-are-fueling-conflict
http://www.newstatesman.com/world/2015/11/why-tehran-hates-isis-how-religious-rifts-are-fueling-conflict
Tuesday, September 24, 2019
The Problem with Rent Control
Rent control will make housing shortages worse
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2019/09/19/rent-control-will-make-housing-shortages-worse
Atlanta Startup Sees Single-Room Rentals as Future of Low-Cost Housing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-17/atlanta-startup-padsplit-sees-high-demand-for-low-cost-housing
Atlanta Startup Sees Single-Room Rentals as Future of Low-Cost Housing
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-17/atlanta-startup-padsplit-sees-high-demand-for-low-cost-housing
Housing Affordability in the US
Do Minimum Wage Increases Benefit Intended
Households? Evidence from the Performance of Residential Leases
Monday, September 23, 2019
Global Warming and Climate Change
Greta Thunberg to world leaders: If you fail us,
‘we will never forgive you’
Sustainability with Chinese Characteristics
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-demonstrating-climate-leadership-by-stephen-s-roach-2019-09
The past, present and future of climate change
GDP, GDI and GDO – Which is the Better Measure of Short-Term Economic Performance?
Gross domestic income should in theory track GDP,
but it tells a slightly different story.
Related:
A BETTER MEASURE OF ECONOMIC GROWTH
The Debate Surrounding Wage Growth Measurement
Are wages rising, falling, or stagnating?
“The honest but boring answer to the question of what is
happening to wages is: It depends. Specifically, it depends on how you measure
it. As so often, methodology really, really, really matters. In the case of
wage growth, four analytical decisions bear heavily on the results: which time
period, which deflator, which workers (by gender), and which workers (in terms
of position).”
Education and the Future of Democracy
Viet Thanh Nguyen, Professor of English at University of
Southern California and Pulitzer Prize winning author, notes:
Being a good teacher is hard. So is maintaining
democracy. Our political leaders should take note.
“Our mutual obligation as professor and students is to
care. I care enough to give engaging lectures and to stimulate discussion, even
with 150 students. My students, for the most part, care enough to show up, or
at least two-thirds to three-fourths of them do. Their obligation, as is the
obligation of all citizens and residents, is to listen and to learn. To
question. To participate. To be in a room where they share similarities and
differences. These demands are similar to what a democracy requires from its
residents and citizens.”
South Asia - Politics and Governance
Roger Cohen’s interesting and balanced take on South Asia:
Background reading:
State Capacity in Pakistan:
A Professor’s Killing Sends a Chill Through a Campus in
Pakistan
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/17/world/asia/pakistan-professor-killing.html
A Plague of Flies Descends on Karachi: ‘They’re Hounding
People’
Sunday, September 22, 2019
Hilarious Sports Columns
WSJ’s Jason Gay (a Wisconsin Badger fan) has written some of
the funniest pieces on College football (and other unrelated topics) in recent
years:
Saturday, September 21, 2019
Decision-Making Theory: New Research Findings
How we make decisions depends on how uncertain we
are
Flexible combination of reward information across
primates
Abstract
A fundamental but rarely contested assumption in
economics and neuroeconomics is that decision-makers compute subjective values
of risky options by multiplying functions of reward probability and magnitude.
By contrast, an additive strategy for valuation allows flexible combination of
reward information required in uncertain or changing environments. We
hypothesized that the level of uncertainty in the reward environment should
determine the strategy used for valuation and choice. To test this hypothesis,
we examined choice between risky options in humans and rhesus macaques across
three tasks with different levels of uncertainty. We found that whereas humans
and monkeys adopted a multiplicative strategy under risk when probabilities are
known, both species spontaneously adopted an additive strategy under
uncertainty when probabilities must be learned. Additionally, the level of
volatility influenced relative weighting of certain and uncertain reward
information, and this was reflected in the encoding of reward magnitude by
neurons in the dorsolateral prefrontal cortex.
Friday, September 20, 2019
Economics, Technology and Politics
Why Andrew Yang Matters
“In the culture war that currently cleaves America,
there are three sides. There are progressives who believe that racism,
nativism, and misogyny powered Donald Trump’s rise and must be defeated. There
are conservatives who believe that Trump’s election was a response to
“political correctness”—the left’s effort to demonize as bigoted anyone who
defends the traditions that made America great. And there’s a third group that
thinks it’s all a dangerous distraction, a fight over where to place the chaise
longues on the Titanic. What’s killing America, this camp argues, is bad
economics; treat that and the identity hatreds will fade. Over the past quarter
century, two presidential candidates have mobilized these economics-first,
culture-war-indifferent voters into a potent force. The first was Ross Perot.
The second is Andrew Yang.”
Andrew Yang’s Quest to ‘Make America Think Harder’
Related:
Universal Basic Income – PODCAST
The important questions about universal basic
income haven’t been answered yet
Should the Government Give Everyone $1,000 a Month?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/12/opinion/yang-universal-basic-income.html
Silicon Valley Goes to Therapy
Latin America's Troubled Economies
Life is a struggle in Venezuela’s oil capital. So
is death.
Argentina Needs Intensive Care
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/argentina-election-and-reform-by-anne-krueger-2019-09Reigniting Growth in India
What the corporate tax cuts mean for India
Foreign Investors Say Tax Cuts Ease Concerns About
India Economy
Thursday, September 19, 2019
Supply-Demand Model of the Labor Market
The Debate Surrounding the Supply-Demand Model of
the Labor Market
Affiliation of Debate Participants:
Michael R. Strain is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He
is director of economic policy studies and resident scholar at the American
Enterprise Institute [AEI leans to the political right]
Noah Smith is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist. He was an assistant
professor of finance at Stony Brook University. [Smith
typically leans to the center-left of the political spectrum]
Further Readings on the Minimum Wage Debate:
Wednesday, September 18, 2019
Jerome Powell's Monetary Policy Dilemma
Jerome Powell’s Dilemma
Federal Reserve cuts interest rates a
quarter point in bid to bolster economy, counter Trump’s trade war
Is the Zero Lower Bound on Interest Rates Still Relevant?
Is there really a
zero-lower bound to interest rates?
Interesting new research from the European Central Bank:
“A tenet of modern
macroeconomics is that monetary policy cannot achieve much once interest rates
have already reached their zero-lower bound (ZLB). Interest rates cannot become
negative because market participants would just hoard cash instead. Thus, when short-term
interest rates approach zero, central banks cannot stimulate demand by lowering
short-term interest rates and the economy enters in a liquidity trap.
This paper
challenges this conventional wisdom by showing that banks can charge negative rates
on a significant portion of their deposits, especially if they have sound
balance sheets. A ZLB may exist for household deposits, which, being relatively
small, may be easily withdrawn and held as cash. However, corporations cannot
as easily conduct their operations without deposits. This paper shows, using
confidential balance sheet data, that relatively sounder banks in the euro area
were more likely to charge negative rates on corporate depositors after the European
Central Bank (ECB)’s Deposit Facility Rate (DFR) became negative in June 2014.”
Tuesday, September 17, 2019
Trade Wars - The Case of Maine Lobsters
How U.S-China trade war is pinching profits
for Maine's lobster industry [VIDEO]
Monday, September 16, 2019
Implications of Negative Interest Rates
Should we love or hate ‘negative’ interest
rates?
https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/should-we-love-or-hate-negative-interest-rates/2019/09/15/70536a50-d64c-11e9-9343-40db57cf6abd_story.html
Are Government Bonds and Even Cash the Next Big Bubble?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeschultze/2019/09/09/are-government-bonds-and-even-cash-the-next-big-bubble/#25f110d27132
Are Government Bonds and Even Cash the Next Big Bubble?
https://www.forbes.com/sites/georgeschultze/2019/09/09/are-government-bonds-and-even-cash-the-next-big-bubble/#25f110d27132
Related:
Saturday, September 14, 2019
Oil Shock – Will it Tip the Global Economy into a Recession?
Saudi oil output takes major hit after apparent
drone attacks
Related:
Weekend Reading - Neuroscience and Free Will
A Famous Argument Against Free Will Has Been
Debunked
https://www.theatlantic.com/health/archive/2019/09/free-will-bereitschaftspotential/597736/
“Is everything we do determined by the cause-and-effect chain of genes, environment, and the cells that make up our brain, or can we freely form intentions that influence our actions in the world?”
“Is everything we do determined by the cause-and-effect chain of genes, environment, and the cells that make up our brain, or can we freely form intentions that influence our actions in the world?”
Monetary Policy, Fiscal Policy and US Interest Rates
A surge in Treasury yields leaves the safety
trade under siege
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-13/souring-bets-on-apocalypse-were-at-center-of-quant-stock-storm
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-13/souring-bets-on-apocalypse-were-at-center-of-quant-stock-storm
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-13/in-trump-versus-obama-interest-rates-are-a-stalemate
It Wouldn't Take Much for the Fed to Cut Rates to Zero
It Wouldn't Take Much for the Fed to Cut Rates to Zero
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-09-13/federal-reserve-is-set-to-cut-interest-rates-multiple-times
Negative Interest Rates – Q&A:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/economy/trump-fed-negative-interest-rates.html
Negative Interest Rates – Q&A:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/11/business/economy/trump-fed-negative-interest-rates.html
What happens if Trump tries to fire Fed
chair Jerome Powell?
Friday, September 13, 2019
Economics of Higher Education
George Washington University aims to get
smaller and better
Is Business School Worth It? How MBA
Programs Are Revamping in 2019
[WSJ Video; To view video set Browser to allow cookies]
[WSJ Video; To view video set Browser to allow cookies]
Value of a College Education
Welding Won’t Make You Rich: Is a lucrative
college-free job too good to be true?
The Downside to Career and Technical
Education
The outlook is dim
for Americans without college degrees
The rise in American high-school graduation rates looks puffed-up
Going to university is more important than ever for young people
Elite colleges
boosted women’s earnings and decreased marriage rates
--
Liberal Arts
Education – Under Threat
https://www.theatlantic.com/education/archive/2018/12/the-liberal-arts-may-not-survive-the-21st-century/577876/
Pulitzer Prize winning author Marilynne Robinson: What Are We Doing Here?
https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2017/11/09/what-are-we-doing-here/
Robinson notes:
"“Our great universities, with their vast resources, their exhaustive libraries, look like a humanist’s dream. Certainly, with the collecting and archiving that has taken place in them over centuries, they could tell us much that we need to know. But there is pressure on them now to change fundamentally, to equip our young to be what the Fabians used to call “brain workers.” They are to be skilled laborers in the new economy, intellectually nimble enough to meet its needs, which we know will change constantly and unpredictably. I may simply have described the robots that will be better suited to this kind of existence, and with whom our optimized workers will no doubt be forced to compete, poor complex and distractible creatures that they will be still.
Pulitzer Prize winning author Marilynne Robinson: What Are We Doing Here?
https://www.nybooks.com/articles/2017/11/09/what-are-we-doing-here/
Robinson notes:
"“Our great universities, with their vast resources, their exhaustive libraries, look like a humanist’s dream. Certainly, with the collecting and archiving that has taken place in them over centuries, they could tell us much that we need to know. But there is pressure on them now to change fundamentally, to equip our young to be what the Fabians used to call “brain workers.” They are to be skilled laborers in the new economy, intellectually nimble enough to meet its needs, which we know will change constantly and unpredictably. I may simply have described the robots that will be better suited to this kind of existence, and with whom our optimized workers will no doubt be forced to compete, poor complex and distractible creatures that they will be still.
Why teach the
humanities? Why study them? American universities are literally shaped around
them and have been since their founding, yet the question is put in the
bluntest form—what are they good for?"
---
Can Parents ‘Robot-Proof’ Their Child’s Job Future
---
Can Parents ‘Robot-Proof’ Their Child’s Job Future
Thursday, September 12, 2019
UK Seeks to Boost Foreign Student Enrollment
Britain signals an about-turn on immigration
- Foreign students will be allowed to work for two years after study, rather
than the current four months
Economic Indicators and Recession Risk
U.S. Recession Indicators Haven’t Made Up
Their Minds
A Strong U.S. Consumer Is a Lagging Indicator
Americans are souring on the economy
Related:
ECB’s Dangerous Move
ECB Cuts Rates, Restarts QE to Fight
Slowdown as Draghi Era Ends
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-09-12/ecb-cuts-rates-restarts-qe-to-fight-slowdown-as-draghi-era-ends
Draghi’s Dangerous Farewell
Wednesday, September 11, 2019
Are we in a Geopolitical Recession?
Geopolitical Recession
Ian Bremmer notes:
“In recent weeks, the word “recession” has once again appeared in print and echoed across the airwaves. Analysts, reporters and politicians still use the term to mean that familiar phenomenon that comes and goes and comes again, a dip in the business cycle as natural and expected as a change in phases of the moon. The trouble is that they’re talking about a textbook recession: a temporary decline in economic growth. Today’s true worry is a geopolitical recession, a storm forming for nearly a decade. The Pax Americana phase of history, when many assumed the United States would indefinitely stand astride the narrow world like a colossus, has given way to a G-Zero world, one where the old Group of Seven table no longer defines the world’s balance of political or economic power, and one in which economic benefits don’t flow as readily toward America.”
Federal Reserve Faces Mounting Political Pressure
Trump Ups Pressure on Fed, Seeking Rates of
Zero ‘Or Less’
Related:
Tuesday, September 10, 2019
Sunday, September 8, 2019
Friday, September 6, 2019
US College Rankings - 2019
The Wall Street Journal/Times Higher
Education College Rankings
Top Public Universities
Trade/Currency Wars
Trump’s Mercantilist Mess
The True Toll of the Trade War
How Much Will the Trade War Cost You by the End of
the Year?
Taming the Currency Hype
https://blogs.imf.org/2019/08/21/taming-the-currency-hype/
https://blogs.imf.org/2019/08/21/taming-the-currency-hype/
Thursday, September 5, 2019
Tuesday, September 3, 2019
Robots and the Future of Warfare
Tomorrow’s wars will be faster, more high-tech, and
less human than ever before. Welcome to a new era of machine-driven warfare.
Negative Interest Rates and the Financial System
Americans are trying to get Denmark's negative-interest mortgages
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/americans-are-trying-to-get-denmarks-negative-mortgages-143832101.html Negative Interest Rates Threaten the Financial System
The Last Thing Banks Need Is Even Lower Rates
Slowing Global Economy
Can Anyone Hold the Global Economy Together?
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/09/02/opinion/global-economy.html
https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/08/29/fears-of-a-german-recession-are-rising
Is a global recession coming? Here are seven warning signs
Is a global recession coming? Here are seven warning signs
Related:
https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2019-08-23/the-world-economy-is-slipping-toward-recession-and-trump-isnt-helping
How to invest if you’re worried a recession is coming
http://theconversation.com/how-to-invest-if-youre-worried-a-recession-is-coming-122003How to invest if you’re worried a recession is coming
Monday, September 2, 2019
Economics of Long Distance Flights
Why would anyone want to sit on a plane for over 18
hours? An economist takes the world’s longest flight
History, Misconceptions and Conflict in South Asia
Myths of Kashmir
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/jammu-kashmir-special-status-india-pakistan-china-terrorism-by-brahma-chellaney-2019-08Standing up to China-Pak Nexus
https://openthemagazine.com/cover-stories/after-article-370-standing-up-to-china-pakistan-nexus/
Tilting at More than Windmills in South Asia
Tilting at More than Windmills in South Asia
Richard N. Haass, President of the Council on Foreign Relations, notes:
“… the US would be unwise to turn to Pakistan as a strategic partner. Pakistan sees a friendly government in Kabul as vital to its security and competition with arch-rival India. There is little reason to believe that the military and intelligence services, which continue to run Pakistan, will rein in the Taliban or rule out terrorism.
Equally, the US would be unwise to alienate India.”
Washington Post op-ed on the Kashmir Conflict:
Pakistan’s response to Kashmir is only helping Modi. It should stay out of this.
C. Christine Fair, Provost's Distinguished Associate Professor in the Security Studies Program within Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, offers her take:
C. Christine Fair, Provost's Distinguished Associate Professor in the Security Studies Program within Georgetown University's Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service, offers her take:
India’s Move in Kashmir: Unpacking the Domestic and International Motivations and Implications
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