Economics and International Affairs Blog: January 2019

“… economies must nourish and protect private capital accumulation if they are to prosper. And there’s just no getting around the reality that a vibrant democracy must grapple with the tensions created by both the need to accumulate wealth and the demand for a just distribution of the power and freedom that wealth — not just income — provides....
Republicans seem committed to reducing (not increasing) taxes on the wealthy, while Democrats reflexively support redistribution to those less well off, even when the program design reduces incentives to save and work. Both parties unite effectively to disfavor investments with longer-term payoffs”.

Climate Science - Polar Vortex, Climate Change and Other Phenomena

Polar vortex: what is it and how is it linked to climate change?

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2019/jan/30/polar-vortex-2019-usa-what-is-it-temperatures-cold-weather-climate-change-explained

Great Graphics – Polar Vortex:
https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/01/30/science/polar-vortex-extreme-cold.html

If the Earth Is Warming, Why Is It So Cold Outside?

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2019/climate/winter-cold-weather.html

A January Heat Wave in Australia

https://www.theatlantic.com/photo/2019/01/photos-january-heatwave-australia/581542/

Climate Change in America - Impressive Graphics
www.washingtonpost.com/graphics/2019/national/gone-in-a-generation/forest-climate-change.html

Tuesday, January 29, 2019

Hyperinflation – Causes and Remedies

Venezuela’s Hyperinflation - Background Info
https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/venezuelas-crisis-in-5-charts/2019/01/26/97af60a6-20c4-11e9-a759-2b8541bbbe20_story.html

Bloomberg Cafe Con Leche Index

https://www.bloomberg.com/features/2016-venezuela-cafe-con-leche-index/

Causes of Hyperinflation

https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2018/02/12/the-roots-of-hyperinflation

Ending Hyperinflation

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/01/29/hyperinflations-can-end-quickly-given-the-right-sort-of-regime-change

Paul Krugman’s brief summary of the Venezuelan crisis:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/29/opinion/the-venezuela-calumny.html

“What, after all, do we learn from the Venezuelan experience? Yes, the country is a mess. Venezuela has always been a one-industry economy, with huge inequality. Hugo Chavez got into power because of rage against the nation’s elite, but used the power badly. He seized the oil sector, which you only do if you can run it honestly and efficiently; instead, he turned it over to corrupt cronies, who degraded its performance. Then, when oil prices fell, his successor tried to cover the income gap by printing money. Hence the crisis”

--

Related:
Hyperinflation in Zimbabwe

http://www.cgdev.org/sites/default/files/CGD-Essay-Tendai-Biti-Hemorrhage-Stability-Zimbabwe.pdf

Famous economics paper from 1986:

Stopping Hyperinflations Past and Present by Rudiger Dornbusch and Stanley Fischer

https://www.jstor.org/stable/pdf/40439541.pdf

Monday, January 28, 2019

Choice of Majors at Elite versus Non-Elite Universities

Choice of Majors at Elite versus Non-Elite Universities

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/26/the-cost-of-studying-the-arts-at-oxbridge

The Economist notes:

“Undergraduate students at prestigious universities are more likely to study purely academic fields such as philosophy and classics, whereas those at less choosy ones tend to pick vocational topics such as business or nursing.”

Which degrees could earn you the highest graduate salary - and the lowest
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/education/2018/03/15/figures-reveal-stark-differences-earning-potential-graduates/

--
Technology and Future of Work
How technological innovation could amplify income inequality

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-technological-innovation-could-amplify-income-inequality

How these humanities graduates are finding jobs in Silicon Valley

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/show/how-these-humanities-graduates-are-finding-jobs-in-silicon-valley

US Housing Market – The New Normal

US Housing Market – The New Normal

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/01/28/new-normal-buying-selling-home-will-be-more-difficult/

Downside of Modern Technology

Study links excessive screen time to developmental delays in children

https://www.theglobeandmail.com/canada/article-excessive-screen-time-could-play-role-in-development-delays-in/

“The study, published in the journal JAMA Pediatrics on Monday, found toddlers and preschoolers who spent high amounts of time in front of televisions, computers and other digital devices were less likely to reach various milestones for communication skills, motor skills and problem-solving by age five.”

US Economic Performance Under Different Presidents

Best-to-worst economic performance, 1977-2019, under seven presidents

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-28/trump-economy-lags-clinton-s-obama-s-reagan-s-and-even-carter-s

FT Global MBA Rankings – 2019

The 2019 Global MBA Rankings

http://rankings.ft.com/pdf/global-mba-ranking-2019.pdf

https://www.ft.com/content/319d081e-14f7-11e9-a168-d45595ad076d

Tech Monopolies in the Real World

Qualcomm and Monopoly Power in the Real World

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-28/judge-s-conundrum-is-qualcomm-a-monopolist-or-merely-a-bully

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-09/u-s-portrays-qualcomm-ex-licensing-chief-as-monopoly-enforcer

Sunday, January 27, 2019

Rising Government Debt – A Warning

David Stockman – Ronald Reagan’s Budget Director – issues a dire warning:

My own perspective:

http://www.ut.edu/uploadedFiles/Academics/Business/Economics/TBEFall2018.pdf

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-28/another-year-another-1-trillion-in-new-debt-for-u-s-to-raise

Alternate viewpoint:
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2019-01-27/whos-afraid-budget-deficits

Saturday, January 26, 2019

Optimal Tax Rate Debate - UPDATED

Taxes, Government Transfers and Wealth Inequality by Eugene Steuerle

http://www.milkenreview.org/articles/taxes-government-transfers-and-wealth-inequality

When the Top U.S. Tax Rate was 70 Percent—or Higher

https://www.theatlantic.com/notes/2019/01/tax-rates-davos/581257/

Taxing the Rich Is an Idea Whose Time Has Come — and Gone

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-29/wealth-tax-plans-have-a-long-and-contentious-u-s-history

A Better Way to Tax the Rich

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/28/opinion/aoc-wealth-tax.html

Reducing Wealth Inequality Through Wealth Taxes Without Compromising Economic Growth

https://promarket.org/reducing-wealth-inequality-through-wealth-taxes-without-compromising-economic-growth/

Do High Taxes Discourage Entrepreneurial Activities?

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-25/u-s-economy-don-t-be-sure-that-tax-cuts-are-good-for-startups

Are Micro and Macro Labor Supply Elasticities Consistent?

http://www.rajchetty.com/chettyfiles/micro_macro_aerpp.pdf

Economists Emmanuel Saez and Gabriel Zucman note:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/opinion/ocasio-cortez-taxes.html

“Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez has kick-started a much-needed debate about taxes. But the debate, so far, has been misplaced. It’s obvious that the affluent — who’ve seen their earnings boom since 1980 while their taxes fell — can contribute more to the public coffers. And given the revenue needs of the country, it is necessary.

But that’s not the fundamental reason higher top marginal income tax rates are desirable. Their root justification is not about collecting revenue. It is about regulating inequality and the market economy. It is also about safeguarding democracy against oligarchy.”

Bloomberg editors’ note: The Case Against 70 Percent

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-22/the-case-against-alexandria-ocasio-cortez-s-70-tax-rate

"Warren Buffett famously once said his secretary faced a tax rate higher than his. The reason is that most of Buffett’s income is in the form of capital gains, which are taxed at a lower rate. Without comprehensive tax reform, introducing a top rate of 70 percent, or anything close, would vastly increase the profit to be made from lawful tax avoidance, including arrangements that recast income in the form of capital gains, a maneuver that’s especially appealing to those making more than $10 million a year. (While it’s true that top rates in the U.S. used to run even higher than 70 percent, it’s also true that these taxes raised relatively little additional revenue for the government.)”

Emerging Markets – Attractive Investment Destinations?

As the current Fed rate-hike cycle nears its end, emerging markets are starting to look attractive again:

https://www.livemint.com/market/stock-market-news/this-is-where-mark-mobius-would-put-money-now-india-s-a-favourite-1548395169607.html

Mobius, who set up Mobius Capital Partners LLP last year after three decades at Franklin Templeton Investments, said this is where he would put his money:

"30 percent in India, 30 percent in Latin America, including in Brazil and Argentina, 30 percent in Eastern Europe like Poland and Romania. The rest in China and other parts of Asia," he said.

India's Telecom Revolution

The Economist notes:

https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/26/mukesh-ambani-wants-to-be-indias-first-internet-tycoon

“Just three years ago there were only about 125m broadband internet connections in India; by last November the number had reached 512m. New connections are growing at a rate of 16m per month, almost all on mobile phones. The average Indian phone user now consumes more mobile data than most Europeans.”

Friday, January 25, 2019

Autonomous Vehicles and the Trucking Industry

Future of Work

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/25/technology/automation-davos-world-economic-forum.html

Wednesday, January 23, 2019

The Chinese Economic Growth Story

Headlines about China’s weak growth are somewhat misleading

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/01/23/headlines-about-chinas-weak-growth-are-somewhat-misleading

Robots will help Chinese firms cope with wages and the trade war

https://www.economist.com/business/2019/01/05/robots-will-help-chinese-firms-cope-with-wages-and-the-trade-war

“It is worth remembering this amid the fears about a trade-war-related slowdown in China’s factory activity. If Esquel is any guide, Chinese firms may use the opportunity to become even more efficient, rather than wilting in the face of adversity. In the long run, that would make China’s economy as a whole more resilient.”

In Price and Value, Chinese Phone Makers Outpace Apple in Much of the World
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/04/technology/china-smartphones-iphone.html

China’s Myth-Busting Miracle

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-growth-experiment-40-years-by-eloi-laurent-2018-12

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/will-china-turn-inward-by-jeongmin-seong-and-jonathan-woetzel-2018-12

China's staggering 40 years of change in pictures

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-46602785

US versus China: The Quest for Economic Dominance

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2018-12-18/china-as-no-1-economy-to-reap-benefits-that-once-flowed-to-u-s

Ray Dalio offers an interesting take on China-US economic ties:
https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/looking-back-last-40-years-reforms-china-ray-dalio/

Tuesday, January 22, 2019

Euro Area Weakness and Global Growth

The euro area is back on the brink of recession

https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2019/01/22/the-euro-area-is-back-on-the-brink-of-recession

IMF WEO Outlook

https://www.imf.org/~/media/Files/Publications/WEO/2019/Update/January/WEOupdateJan2019.ashx?la=en

IMF Sees Weakest World Growth in Three Years as Europe Slows

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-21/imf-sees-weakest-global-growth-in-three-years-as-europe-slows

France’s big gamble – Macron’s Great Gamble

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/macron-yellow-vest-citizen-consultation-by-jean-tirole-2019-01

Vanguard's Jack Bogle and the Modern Financial Industry

Morality and Money Management

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/bogle-vanguard-investment-strategy-limits-by-robert-j--shiller-2019-01

IMF’s New Chief Economist

No Idea Is Off Limits for IMF's First Woman Chief Economist

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-22/nothing-s-taboo-for-new-imf-chief-economist-first-woman-in-job

Minneapolis Fed interview [2016] – Gita Gopinath

https://www.minneapolisfed.org/publications/the-region/interview-with-gita-gopinath

Gita Gopinath on US Dollar Dominance

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2017/06/us-dollar-and-global-economy.html

Potential Causes of the Next Financial Crisis

Billionaire Investor Seth Klarman’s Viewpoint

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/22/business/dealbook/world-economic-forum-klarman.html

Debt machine: are risks piling up in leveraged loans?

https://www.ft.com/content/64c9665e-1814-11e9-9e64-d150b3105d21

Cheap credit is creating the conditions for the next financial crisis.

https://www.newstatesman.com/politics/economy/2019/01/will-there-be-another-crash-2019

The Biggest Emerging Market Debt Problem Is in America

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/collateralized-corporate-loans-possible-crisis-by-carmen-reinhart-2018-12

What are leveraged loans?
https://www.economist.com/the-economist-explains/2019/01/11/what-are-leveraged-loans

Wall Street Loves These Risky Loans. The Rest of Us Should Be Wary.

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/10/19/business/economy/clo-corporate-loans.html

The Next Financial Crisis Lurks Underground

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/01/opinion/the-next-financial-crisis-lurks-underground.html

Monday, January 21, 2019

Politically Dysfunctional America

Calls escalate for Trump to end shutdown and trade war amid fears of economic slowdown

www.washingtonpost.com/business/2019/01/21/global-recession-fears-grow-calls-escalate-trump-end-shutdown-trade-war/

Federal Reserve Governor Lael Brainard on the longest shutdown in history

How this shutdown compares to every other since 1976

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/every-government-shutdown-from-1976-to-now

The Shutdown Shows the Weakness of the Resistance

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/20/opinion/shutdown-resistance-trump.html

Multinational Companies and Corporate Taxation

Decision Time for the Future of Corporate Taxation

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/oecd-reducing-digital-multinationals-tax-avoidance-by-jose-antonio-ocampo-2019-01

Sunday, January 20, 2019

Profile of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President - Mary C. Daly

Washington Post Profile of Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco President - Mary C. Daly

“By the time she was 16, Mary C. Daly was a high school drop out in a small town outside St. Louis who believed her best option in life was to become a bus driver.

“I only knew what was right in front of me,” said Daly. “My aspiration was to get a full-time job.”

Today Daly, 56, is president of the Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, making her one of the most powerful shapers of economic policy in the United States. In this position, which she started in October, Daly helps set interest rates.”

Emerging Markets - Recent Developments

In China industrial heartland city of Chongqing, a painful economic transition is on full display

https://www.scmp.com/economy/china-economy/article/2182633/chinas-industrial-heartland-painful-economic-transition-full

What Next for China’s Development Model?

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/china-development-model-tensions-with-west-by-michael-spence-2019-01

India's electric vehicle goals being realized on two wheels, not four

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/news/2019/01/20/business/indias-electric-vehicle-goals-realized-two-wheels-not-four/

Making policies matter

https://voxdev.org/topic/institutions-political-economy/making-policies-matter

“A little information goes a long way towards shifting clientelist electoral systems from vote-buying to policy-based competition”

Government help and market forces create a new industry in Chile

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/01/19/a-cheery-tale-of-chilean-cherries

Indonesia’s Economic Prospects

https://www.economist.com/asia/2019/01/17/indonesias-economic-growth-is-being-held-back-by-populism

Tiny Indian state proposes world’s biggest experiment with guaranteed income

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/17/tiny-indian-state-proposes-worlds-biggest-experiment-with-guaranteed-income/

Battling Eight Giants with Basic Income

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eight-reasons-for-basic-income-by-guy-standing-2019-01

Africa Charts its Own Course in International Trade

https://www.livemint.com/Politics/jCwyqtsaygzUDJfLOjOrSK/Africas-historic-pivot-Clestin-Monga.html

www.project-syndicate.org/onpoint/africa-s-historic-pivot-by-c-lestin-monga-2019-01

Failed/Failing States:

Pakistan

https://www.economist.com/briefing/2019/01/12/why-imran-khan-is-unlikely-to-make-life-much-better-for-pakistanis

Venezuela

https://www.economist.com/the-americas/2019/01/12/nicolas-maduro-digs-in-for-another-six-year-term

Financial Markets – Signal and Noise

Recent swings in equity markets

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/20/business/stock-market-recovery-federal-reserve.html

Who is buying US Treasuries?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-20/shifting-treasuries-buyer-base-may-be-bond-market-achilles-heel

Why the Quants Aren’t Adding Up

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-19/quant-funds-poor-performance-may-not-be-temporary

‘Bear Market’ Is an Arbitrary Label, but Using It Can Hurt

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/business/bear-market-arbitrary-label-shiller.html

Are Financial Markets Predictive or Reactive?

Anatole Kaletsky, Chief Economist and Co-Chairman of Gavekal Dragonomics, notes:

https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/volatile-financial-markets-despite-fundamentals-by-anatole-kaletsky-2019-01

“Could it be that investors are so confused by political chaos that they have given up trying to anticipate what could happen next?

If so, then markets, instead of being predictive, become increasingly reactive, simply extrapolating recent events. In a world where “nobody knows anything,” investors may be no better than Hollywood moguls at predicting the future.”

Saturday, January 19, 2019

Gig Economy and the Future of Jobs

Interesting piece by a venture capitalist:

Silicon Valley’s grand experiment in jobs means employees are the guinea pigs

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/silicon-valleys-grand-experiment-in-jobs-means-employees-are-the-guinea-pigs/2019/01/18/606887bc-18d6-11e9-8813-cb9dec761e73_story.html

Where Have all the True US Conservatives Gone?

Conservative columnist George Will on the Trump Presidency [MUST READ]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/what-a-misery-it-must-be-to-be-donald-trump/2019/01/18/d0e05eea-1a82-11e9-8813-cb9dec761e73_story.html
“The president has kept his promise not to address the unsustainable trajectory of the entitlement state (about the coming unpleasant reckoning, he said: “Yeah, but I won’t be here”), and his party’s congressional caucuses have elevated subservience to him into a political philosophy. The Republican-controlled Senate — the world’s most overrated deliberative body — will not deliberate about, much less pass, legislation the president does not favor. The evident theory is that it would be lèse-majesté for the Senate to express independent judgments.”

Conservative columnist Bret Stephens makes an important point:

https://www.nytimes.com/2019/01/17/opinion/brexit-western-powers.html

“Among many conservatives I know, the view of Trump is that chaotic management, clownish behavior and ideological apostasies are irritants, not calamities, and prices worth paying for deregulation, tax cuts, and conservative courts.

Really? These same conservatives spent the past 30 years preaching the importance of judgment, good character, and respect for institutions in the person of the president. They were right. What will they say when they find these attributes missing in the person of a president whose policy preferences and political affiliation they don’t share?”

Genuine Conservative Principles:

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2017/08/true-conservative-principles.html

Friday, January 18, 2019

Europe and Asia Take the Lead on International Trade

Europe and Asia Take the Lead on International Trade

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-01-18/globalization-is-surviving-trump

Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP)

https://www.straitstimes.com/asia/east-asia/pacific-rim-trade-deal-enters-into-force-with-steep-tariff-cuts-for-six-nations

The Controversial Modern Monetary Theory

UPDATE - Kelton vs. Krugman Debate
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-03-01/paul-krugman-s-four-questions-about-mmt
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/02/25/opinion/running-on-mmt-wonkish.html

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Is the Darling of the Left, Nightmare of the Right

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2019-01-17/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-s-big-ideas-for-taxes-and-medicare

Debate surrounding Modern Monetary Theory (MMT):

What is modern monetary theory?

http://theconversation.com/explainer-what-is-modern-monetary-theory-72095

Mainstream Macroeconomics and Modern Monetary Theory: What Really Divides Them?

https://www.ineteconomics.org/perspectives/blog/mainstream-macroeconomics-and-modern-monetary-theory-what-really-divides-them

Critique of MMT:

https://www.nationalreview.com/2019/01/modern-monetary-theory-abuses-and-uses/

Karl Smith notes:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-18/alexandria-ocasio-cortez-and-the-revenge-of-the-millennials

“The argument that a debt-free college policy will mostly benefit the young hardly needs an explanation. Yet it is even more skewed toward them than it appears: It’s not a given that such a program would result in many more Americans going to college (if that happened, the overall benefits — from the increase in skilled workers — would be widespread). Instead, more students would leave college without owing tens or even hundreds of thousands of dollars in debt. That reduced debt burden represents a direct transfer from older Americans to younger ones.

None of this is to argue against the goals of these Democratic proposals. But they represent a radical departure from the past and current model, and it’s interesting to consider why they are all coming now. My favorite theory — and that’s all it is — is that they are payback for decades of pro-elderly monetary policy.”

Economics and Politics of Tax Cuts

Why Republicans Fell in Love with Tax Cuts

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-18/republicans-fell-in-love-with-tax-cuts-thanks-to-reagan

Effects of Income Tax Changes on Economic Growth

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2016/07/09_Effects_Income_Tax_Changes_Economic_Growth_Gale_Samwick_.pdf

Do Tax Cuts Starve the Beast? The Effect of Tax Changes on Government Spending

https://www.brookings.edu/wp-content/uploads/2009/03/2009a_bpea_romer.pdf

The U.S. Is a Low-Tax Nation Unless You Earn a Lot

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2019-01-15/taxes-in-u-s-are-low-overall-but-not-for-high-earners

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2019/01/marginal-tax-rates-international.html

Book Recommendation:

Population Growth and Demographics

A growing number of towns around the world are offering homes to newcomers for almost free

www.washingtonpost.com/world/2019/01/18/growing-number-towns-around-world-is-offering-homes-newcomers-almost-free/

Utah Shows How Labor-Force Growth Fuels Economic Growth

www.wsj.com/articles/utah-shows-how-labor-force-growth-fuels-economic-growth-11547809200

How Aging Japan Defied Demographics and Revived Its Economy

https://www.wsj.com/articles/how-aging-japan-defied-demographics-and-turned-around-its-economy-11547222490

Demographics Matters - Lessons from Japan

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/can-the-us-avoid-japans-demographic-disaster/2018/12/31/1f29ba66-0d3f-11e9-8938-5898adc28fa2_story.html

Women, foreign workers or robots?

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/opinion/2018/11/13/commentary/japan-commentary/women-foreign-workers-robots/

HISAKAZU KATO notes:

“Securing a sufficient labor force is an indispensable condition for sustainable economic growth. As Japan’s population falls, the so-called working age population (from 15 to 64) also declines, so it becomes even more important for our economy to secure a sufficient labor force in the future by expanding women’s participation in the labor market, accepting more foreign workers or substituting human labor with artificial intelligence or robots.”

How big is the wage penalty for mothers?

https://www.economist.com/graphic-detail/2019/01/28/how-big-is-the-wage-penalty-for-mothers

FRBSF piece on US labor force participation rate

https://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2018/november/us-labor-force-participation-rate-trend-projection/el2018-25.pdf

US Fertility Rates

https://www.economist.com/united-states/2018/11/24/what-explains-americas-mysterious-baby-bust
http://www.aei.org/wp-content/uploads/2018/12/Declining-Fertility-in-America.pdf