In Silicon Valley, Working 9 to 5 Is for Losers
Thursday, August 31, 2017
China’s Ambitious High-Speed Rail Program
China is fast becoming a world leader in high-speed rails:
Wednesday, August 30, 2017
Should the ECB End its QE Program?
Europe Has Recovered Enough to Ease Off the
Quantitative Easing
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-30/europe-has-recovered-enough-to-ease-off-the-quantitative-easingTaxes, Fiscal Policies and the US Economy
It’s a Myth That Corporate Tax Cuts Mean
More Jobs
Related report:
Taxes and Fiscal Policy
Robert Samuelson’s thought provoking piece:
“If we are to lower tax rates and simplify complex tax
provisions, we must offset the revenue losses by plugging loopholes, raising
other taxes or cutting spending. Under current policies, the Congressional
Budget Office has projected $10 trillion in deficits from 2018 to 2027. Trump’s
tax plan, including provisions that would raise revenue, would add an
additional $3.5 trillion in deficits over a decade, estimates the nonpartisan
Tax Policy Center (TPC).”
Related:
Tuesday, August 29, 2017
Doing Business in Emerging Markets
A great read: Big firms in India face new competition
The Economist
article notes:
“India is a terrible
and brilliant place to do business. Just as investors talk about a “Korea
discount”, to describe chaebols’ lousy profits, so there is an “India premium”.
The leading private lender, HDFC Bank, has an 18% ROE, ranking tenth among the
top 100 global lenders. Hindustan Unilever, a consumer-goods firm, has a 77%
ROE, over twice that of its parent, Unilever. Even in basic industries, such as
cement, returns have been relatively high.”
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The high cost of red tape in Nigeria
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Brazil - Investors seem confident that an economic
recovery is under way
https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21726689-there-still-plenty-could-go-wrong-investors-seem-confident-economic-recovery
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https://www.economist.com/news/americas/21726689-there-still-plenty-could-go-wrong-investors-seem-confident-economic-recovery
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China’s Automotive Sector
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-29/china-s-car-sector-needs-a-shakeup-not-buyoutsMonday, August 28, 2017
Emotions and Investing in Stock Markets
A useful read for equity investors:
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/business/market-portfolio-drift.html
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/25/business/market-portfolio-drift.html
US-China Codependency Trap
Yale economist Stephen Roach’s insightful piece on US-China
ties:
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-china-trade-war-by-stephen-s--roach-2017-08Economic Mobility and the American Economy
Tax incentives and labor mobility
Nobel Laureate Edmund Phelps on the American Dream
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/recalling-the-american-dream-by-edmund-s--phelps-2017-08Saturday, August 26, 2017
Why Economics Matters
Greg Ip of the WSJ offers a defense of Economics
https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-defense-of-the-dismal-science-1503679118
Friday, August 25, 2017
Financial Stability in the Post-Crisis Era
Fed Chairwoman Janet Yellen’s Jackson Hole speech:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/yellen20170825a.pdfRecessions and Business Cycles
Finding the Root Cause of Recessions
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-25/finding-the-root-cause-of-recessionsThursday, August 24, 2017
Happiness and Age
Interesting new research findings:
“Happiness, those
surveys show, follow a generalized U-shape over the course of a life: People
report high degrees of happiness in their late teens and early 20s. But as the
years roll by, people become more and more miserable, hitting a nadir in life
satisfaction sometime around the early 50s. Happiness rebounds from there into
old age and retirement.”
China Censorship – Cambridge University Press and Academic Freedom
Cambridge University Press backs down over
China censorship
“CUP yesterday
bowed to pressure and announced a U-turn over the scholarly journal China
Quarterly. The academic press was criticised by furious scholars around the
world after it emerged last week that hundreds of China Quarterly articles,
covering taboo topics from Tibet to the Tiananmen Square protests, had been
blocked to readers in China, following a request from Beijing’s censors.”
Related:
https://www.economist.com/news/china/21727100-tense-political-year-communist-party-wants-no-dissent-cambridge-university-press-battlesCentral Banks and the Natural Rate of Unemployment
The Economist on
the natural rate of unemployment:
New statistical approach introduced for estimating the US
natural rate of unemployment by economists at the FEDERAL RESERVE BANK
OF SAN FRANCISCO:
http://www.frbsf.org/economic-research/publications/economic-letter/2017/august/natural-rate-of-unemployment-over-past-100-years/el2017-23.pdfSlow Wage Growth
Demographics and wage growth
Persistence of low wages
Importance of wage growth
The Fed and wage growth
Wage Growth, productivity and inflation
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/05/26/upshot/the-question-isnt-why-wage-growth-is-so-low-its-why-its-so-high.html
Sticky Wages
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-25/too-much-debt-is-making-us-sticks-in-the-mudWednesday, August 23, 2017
Even China Faces De-industrialization Challenges
China, Like U.S., Struggles to Revive
Industrial Heartland by MICHAEL SCHUMAN
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/22/business/economy/china-factories-industrial-economy.html
Update:
Automation in China
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-23/china-s-future-reshaped-by-robots
Ownership Rights in the Digital Economy
YOU BOUGHT THAT GADGET, AND DAMMIT, YOU
SHOULD BE ABLE TO FIX IT by KYLE WIENS
Wiens notes:
“Not long ago, anyone
with the time, tools, and patience could repair damn near anything. That
changed as computers and processors took on a greater role in just about
everything you own. The mobile revolution exacerbated the problem. Packing
increasingly sophisticated technology into smaller, sleeker devices led
manufacturers to adopt new manufacturing techniques. That made it far more
difficult for home tinkerers to fix a laptop, a television, or smartphone—let
alone a car or farm tractor—making independent repair outfits essential. Then
manufacturers started using copyright laws to keep their repair manuals
offline, proprietary fasteners to seal their products, and in some cases,
digital rights management to protect their software.
Japanese Economy in the Twenty-First Century - A More Open Economy?
Japan’s “Land of Opportunity”
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/more-foreign-talent-for-japan-global-ambitions-by-hiroshi-mikitani-2017-08
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/more-foreign-talent-for-japan-global-ambitions-by-hiroshi-mikitani-2017-08
Related:
Japan’s
Disappearing Rural Villages
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2017/08/japan-rural-decline/537375/Tuesday, August 22, 2017
Minimum Wage Debate and Automation
Interesting new research summarized by Noah Smith
“Lordan and
Neumark’s findings seem to confirm people’s fears that minimum wages will
hasten the dreaded rise of the robots. That will certainly be used by
minimum-wage opponents to make policy makers think twice about raising the wage
floor. But this fearful reaction is probably overdone. Automation spurred by
high wages could be a very good thing for the economy, in the long term.”
Afghanistan and the South Asian Strategic Dilemma
UPDATE:
Why Trump Is Right to Get Tough with
Pakistan by ZALMAY KHALILZAD
https://www.nytimes.com/2017/08/23/opinion/trump-afghanistan-pakistan-strategy.html
RELATED:
Pakistan’s Monster
by Dexter Filkins
http://www.newyorker.com/news/news-desk/pakistans-monster
Two great books worth reading:
The Wrong Enemy by Carlotta Gall
Magnificent Delusions by Husain
Haqqani
Monday, August 21, 2017
Interesting Items - 8/21
Are Polymaths Still Relevant?
North-South Divide in Germany - Significant regional economic
disparities pose a challenge for Germany
https://www.economist.com/news/europe/21726705-its-election-campaign-kicks-germanys-north-south-split-ever-starker-germanys-new-divide
Solar Eclipse
Impact of Technological Revolution
Why didn't electricity immediately change
manufacturing? By Tim Harford
http://www.bbc.com/news/business-40673694Fixing Universities
A timely piece from André Spicer:
“Universities have
been growing for a decade, but most of the resources fuelling that growth have
gone into expanding university administration, not faculty. One US study found
that between 1975 and 2008, the number of faculty had grown about 10% while the
number of administrators had grown 221%. In the UK, two thirds of universities
now have more administrators than they do faculty staff. One higher education
policy expert has predicted the birth of the “all-administrative university”.
The massive
expansion of administration has also fuelled an equally stark expansion of
empty activities. These include costly rebranding exercises, compliance with
audits and ranking initiatives, struggling with poorly designed IT systems,
engaging with strategic initiatives and failed attempts at “visionary
leadership”. All the while, faculty are under pressure to show they are
producing world-class research, outstanding teaching and are having an impact
on wider society. No wonder some faculty complain that they are “drowning in
shit”.”
Sunday, August 20, 2017
Economics of Marriage
America, Home of the Transactional Marriage
VICTOR TAN CHEN notes:
“Today, though,
just over half of women in their early 40s with a high-school degree or less
education are married, compared to three-quarters of women with a bachelor’s
degree; in the 1970s, there was barely a difference. The marriage gap for men
has changed less over the years, but there the trend lines have flipped too:
Twenty-five percent of men with high-school degrees or less education have
never married, compared to 23 percent of men with bachelor’s degrees and 14
percent of those with advanced degrees. Meanwhile, divorce rates have continued
to rise among the less educated, while staying more or less steady for college
graduates in recent decades.”
Friday, August 18, 2017
Fed’s Monetary Policy Stance – Too Aggressive or Too Timid
Federal Reserve faces a set of complicated choices:
https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2017-08-16/the-fed-is-asking-questions-not-providing-answers
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