Attention Economy


Wednesday, November 30, 2016

Repeat of the 1980s?

Twin deficits (trade and budget deficits) and dollar surge dominated the first half of the 1980s. Are we in for a repeat in 2017?
“Parallels between Donald Trump's U.S. economic plan and early 1980s Reaganomics have supercharged the dollar, reminding some that its rampant gains 30 years ago eventually required intervention to reverse them.”
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The chart below highlights the massive swings in the real dollar index during the 1980s. It also shows the US trade balance fluctuations during that tumultuous decade:

Monday, November 28, 2016

Consumption - An Economic History Lesson

A fascinating piece:
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/11/how-humans-became-consumers/508700/

Saving-Investment Gap and Trade and Current Account Imbalances

Two timely articles:

Yale economist Stephen Roach notes -
“Donald Trump’s economic strategy is severely flawed. The US president-elect wants to restore growth via deficit spending in a country with a chronic shortfall of saving. This points to a further compression in national saving, making a widening of an already outsize trade gap all but inevitable.”

As a percent of GDP, Germany’s current account surplus dwarfs China’s surplus
http://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/germany-preparing-for-trade-conflict-with-donald-trump-a-1123136.html
“There are plenty of reasons for that. Germany's current account surplus has never been as high as it is this year and never before has that surplus represented such a significant share of the country's gross domestic product. Making matters worse is the fact that the US is the largest consumer of German exports.”

Saturday, November 26, 2016

Why Trade Protectionism is a Stupid Idea?

A timely piece from WSJ - How Latin America Pays the Price of Protectionism By TAOS TURNER and  PAUL KIERNAN
“For decades, South America’s two largest economies have tried to shield their workers from global trade, largely through high tariffs and regulations that promote domestic production over imports. The World Bank ranks Argentina and Brazil among the world’s most closed big economies.
In Brazil, locally made products are enshrined in the constitution. Gadget-loving Argentines often use the black market or go to Miami to buy iPhones, which were barred for years because Apple wouldn’t produce them in Argentina.
These protectionist policies have created tens of thousands of well-paid factory jobs and may have helped avoid factory layoffs like those that rattled Midwestern U.S. states like Michigan. But they have come at a huge cost to consumers, who now pay higher prices, and to taxpayers, who underwrite the subsidies. Taken together, these measures essentially transfer wealth from society at large to a smaller group of workers.

Thursday, November 24, 2016

Quants and Modern Finance

An illuminating piece on Renaissance Technologies
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-21/how-renaissance-s-medallion-fund-became-finance-s-blackest-box

Venezuela’s Currency Collapse

Bolivar hits new lows:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-24/venezuela-s-currency-just-had-the-biggest-monthly-collapse-ever

Immigrants and the American Economy

Interesting new book on America’s most successful new immigrant group:
“Today Indian-born Americans number 2m and they are probably the most successful minority group in the country. Compared with all other big foreign-born groups, they are younger, richer and more likely to be married and supremely well educated. On the west coast they are a mighty force in Silicon Valley; well-off Indians cluster around New York, too. “The Other One Percent” is the first major study of how this transformation happened. Filled with crunchy analysis, it exudes authority on a hugely neglected subject.”

New study on illegal immigrants and US economic growth:

Small business owners and immigrant workers:


Interesting Items - 11/24/16

Money in American Politics
An interesting piece by Jane Mayer:


Investors Need to Reevaluate their Choice of Asset Managers
Noah Smith notes:
“If you’re not good at something, the smart thing to do is go find a professional. If you're sick and don't know what you have, you go to a doctor. If the wiring in your house has a short circuit, you call an electrician. But does this approach work in investing?
Probably not. Doctors and electricians have to prove their skill and training to get certified. Money managers don’t. For almost two decades now, the average hedge fund has delivered a lackluster return.  Actively managed mutual funds generally fail to beat the market after fees, either in a given year or over time. Although most fund managers do have skill, and could generally beat the market trading on their own, the fees they charge more than cancel out their investing edge.”

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For an optimistic note on the status of the world, check out
A World to Be Thankful For by Charles Kenny
https://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2016/11/thanksgiving-global/508646/

Tuesday, November 22, 2016

Economic versus Political Divide

Fascinating research finding:
“In the modern era of presidential politics, no candidate has ever won the popular vote by more than Hillary Clinton did this year, yet still managed to lose the electoral college. In that sense, 2016 was a historic split: Donald Trump won the presidency by as much as 74 electoral votes (depending on how Michigan ends up) while losing the nationwide vote to Clinton by 1.7 million votes and counting.
But there's another divide exposed by the election, which researchers at the Brookings Institution recently discovered as they sifted the election returns. It has no bearing on the election outcome, but it tells us something important about the state of the country and its politics moving forward.
The divide is economic, and it is massive. According to the Brookings analysis, the less-than-500 counties that Clinton won nationwide combined to generate 64 percent of America's economic activity in 2015. The more-than-2,600 counties that Trump won combined to generate 36 percent of the country's economic activity last year.”

US Stock Market Reaches a New High

Dow tops 19,000:

What is driving the stock market surge?

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The market appears to be underestimating potential risks –
  • Higher than expected interest rates
  • Stronger dollar
  • Potential trade conflicts and supply chain disruptions


Sunday, November 20, 2016

An Alternative to TPP Emerges

China, US and the Asia-Pacific Power Balance
http://yaleglobal.yale.edu/content/us-walks-away-tpp-and-leaves-door-open-china

China and Russia to Push for an East Asian Free Trade Zone

FT piece notes:
“On Mr Obama’s last official trip overseas, the real star at this year’s Lima summit was Chinese president Xi Jinping, who courted other APEC members with a rival to the TPP. Mr Xi offered Beijing as an alternative to what many US allies fear will be a more bellicose America under Mr Trump.
“China will not shut the door to the outside world but will open it even wider,” Mr Xi told business leaders on Saturday.”

Saturday, November 19, 2016

Science of the Human Brain

An informative piece:

Weekend Reading - NYT

Economics and International Political Economy

Harvard economist SENDHIL MULLAINATHAN on the post-election stock market surge:

Italian Banking Woes and the Eurozone

China’s Influence in the Post-TPP Era



International Affairs

How Saudi Arabia and Iran Tore Apart the Middle East By MAX FISHER
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/11/20/world/middleeast/iran-saudi-proxy-war.html

Technology, News and Political Polarization

Cass Sunstein’s 2007 piece – The Polarization of Extremes – was prescient:

The unintended consequences of the internet age:
How the Internet Is Loosening Our Grip on the Truth (NYTIMES)
“A wider variety of news sources was supposed to be the bulwark of a rational age — “the marketplace of ideas,” the boosters called it. But that’s not how any of this works. Psychologists and other social scientists have repeatedly shown that when confronted with diverse information choices, people rarely act like rational, civic-minded automatons. Instead, we are roiled by preconceptions and biases, and we usually do what feels easiest — we gorge on information that confirms our ideas, and we shun what does not.”


THE FAILURE OF FACEBOOK DEMOCRACY by Nathan Heller
Facebook and the Prevalence of Disinformation

Friday, November 18, 2016

Money, Power and America's Elite Universities

The dirty little secret of America’s elite universities:
Daniel Golden, author of ‘The Price of Admission’ notes -
“My book exposed grubby secret of American higher education: that the rich buy their underachieving children’s way into elite universities with massive, tax-deductible donations. It reported that New Jersey real estate developer Charles Kushner had pledged $2.5m to Harvard University not long before his son Jared was admitted to the prestigious Ivy League school, which at the time accepted about one of every nine applicants. (Nowadays, it only takes one out of 20.)
I also quoted administrators at Jared’s high school, who described him as a less-than-stellar student and expressed dismay at Harvard’s decision….
At Harvard, Jared Kushner majored in government. Now the 35-year-old is poised to become the power behind the presidency. What he plans to do, and in what direction he and his father-in-law will lead the country, are far more important than his high school grades.”

Economic Progress – A Modern Invention

Northwestern Economic Historian Joel Mokyr: Progress Isn't Natural: Humans invented it—and not that long ago.
https://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2016/11/progress-isnt-natural-mokyr/507740/

Groupthink in Economics

Paul Romer’s important challenge to freshwater macroeconomics:
Related – Controversies surrounding Fiscal Policy


Robert Hall – Originator of Freshwater versus Saltwater Macroeconomics Terminology - http://web.stanford.edu/~rehall/Notes%20Current%20State%20Empirical%201976.pdf

Western Democracies - Reality Check

David Runciman, Head of Politics Department at Cambridge University on Western Democracies:
“The people who voted for him did not believe they were taking a huge gamble; they simply wished to rebuke a system on which they still rely for their basic security. That is what the vote for Trump has in common with Brexit. By choosing to quit the European Union, the majority of British voters may have looked as if they were behaving with extraordinary recklessness. But in reality their behaviour too reflected their basic trust in the political system with which they were ostensibly so disgusted, because they believed that it was still capable of protecting them from the consequences of their choice. …
This is where the real risks lie. It is not possible to keep behaving like this without damaging the basic machinery of democratic government. It takes an extraordinarily fine-tuned political intelligence to target popular anger at the parts of the state that need reform while leaving intact the parts that make that reform possible.”

Interest Rate Cycles - Historical Perspective

The really long view on interest rates:
http://www.cnbc.com/2016/11/17/200-years-of-us-interest-rates-on-one-chart.html

Global Bond Market Rout
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-18/global-bonds-head-for-biggest-two-week-loss-in-quarter-century

Thursday, November 17, 2016

Economic Themes for 2017

Goldman Sachs - Economic/Financial Themes for 2017:
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-17/goldman-sachs-maps-out-its-top-ten-market-themes-for-2017

Macroeconomics and Politics – Theory versus Political Reality

An excellent and timely piece from Bloomberg BusinessWeek:
“When Washington argues about fiscal policy, it’s really fighting over models. By the time the White House produces its budget, its Office of Management and Budget has already modeled what it hopes that budget will do. Majorities in Congress send their budget resolutions to their own preferred think tanks for modeling, too. Then, by statute, bills that come out of most committees must receive a “score”—a modeled result—from the Congressional Budget Office and, for revenue bills, the Joint Committee on Taxation. The CBO and the JCT have a reputation for straight-backed probity, but congressional staffers quietly haggle with both institutions over footnotes.
So Republican economists model against Democratic economists, with some referee economists in the middle. You say your tax cuts can be offset by economic growth. Oh, I ask? Well, are your agents life-cycle or infinitely lived? This is the knife fight in the kitchen, and it’s how the presumed mortality of imaginary people determines the size of your tax bill.”


The Second Coming of Reaganomics?

Tuesday, November 15, 2016

Michael Lewis on Kahneman and Tversky [MUST READ]

A brilliant piece on Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky by best selling author Michael Lewis:
http://www.vanityfair.com/news/2016/11/decision-science-daniel-kahneman-amos-tversky

Economics majors should read the piece carefully.

Monday, November 14, 2016

Economics of Populism

Saving Global Capitalism [HIGHLY RECOMMENDED]
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/saving-global-capitalism-from-populism-by-alexander-friedman-2016-11

Harvard economist Larry Summers notes:
“The late MIT economist Rudiger Dornbusch made an extensive study of the results of populist economic programs around the world, finding that while they sometimes had immediate positive results, over the medium- and long-term they were catastrophic for the working class in whose name they were launched. This could be the fate of the Trump program given its design errors, implausible assumptions and reckless disregard for global economics….Populist economics will play out differently in the United States than in emerging markets. But the results will be no better.”

Global Bond Selloff – Yields Soar

Bond selloff continues unabated:

Big move in US Treasury bond market

Sunday, November 13, 2016

Emerging Markets and International Finance

Time to Reengage in the EM Carry Trade?
“In a global bond selloff fueled by expectations that Trump will increase government spending, emerging-market traders are by no means capitulating. While bracing for the risks of protectionist policies, they’re betting faster growth and narrowing current account deficits will help most developing countries weather the rout.
The recent declines have “created a great buying opportunity,” said Koon Chow, a strategist at Union Bancaire Privee Ubp SA in London. “We could get to the stage where in one or two weeks time, U.S. Treasury yields stabilize, and if that happens, emerging markets will come back.””


Egypt Tries Devaluation
http://www.economist.com/news/middle-east-and-africa/21709612-government-has-finally-allowed-overvalued-pound-depreciate-egypt

Winners and Losers - Nothing Really Changed !!

Goldman Sachs and Wall Street – As Usual the Big Winners
“So in this honeymoon, the market got to look on dreamily at the effects of higher interest rates and steeper yield curves that will bolster lending margins for banks without worrying much about what that means for the rest of the economy.
The market stared into the sexy eyes of a potential dismantling of the Dodd-Frank Act -- and all the capital that would be unlocked and returned to shareholders, and all the animal spirits set free once again on trading desks -- without having to worry about how we'll clean up the mess of the next financial crisis.”


Related:

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Here are a few key policy changes to expect in 2017:
From the WSJ –
“Donald Trump’s victory emboldens Republicans to complete one of the party’s core missions: slashing tax rates on individuals and businesses….
“It’s going to be a top priority of the House, which will force the issue, regardless of where it is on everyone else’s radar,” said Sage Eastman, a former House GOP aide. “It will galvanize the town and could be the most significant and major piece of legislation to move early on in the administration.”…
They would lighten tax burdens on high-income individuals and multinational corporations and repeal the 100-year-old estate tax
Both [Senate and House] plans would also significantly increase budget deficits and give the largest tax cuts to high-income households. Mr. Trump’s plan, for example, would reduce federal revenue by $6.2 trillion over a decade, according to the Tax Policy Center, a project of the Brookings Institution and Urban Institute. The top 1% of households would get a 13.5% boost in after-tax income, compared with a 4.1% increase for the entire population.

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Voters often appear to vote against their self-interest. 
“Louisiana is the second-poorest state and second-to-last in human development, which is a measure of individual freedom. The state’s rate of fatal cancers is about 30 percent higher than the national average. For all its antifederalism, Louisiana is fourth in accepting government welfare, with 44 percent of its budget coming from Washington. (Many of Hochschild’s Tea Party friends are beneficiaries of federal welfare programs.) Louisiana has the highest rate of death by gunfire (nearly double the national average), the highest rate of incarceration, and is the fifth-least-educated, reflecting the fact that it spends the fifth-least on education. It is sixth in the nation in generating hazardous waste, and third in importing it, since it makes a side business out of storing other states’ trash….
The paradox that most baffles Hochschild is the question of environmental pollution. Even the most ideologically driven zealots don’t want to drink poisoned water, inhale toxic gas, or become susceptible to record flooding. Yet southwestern Louisiana combines some of the nation’s most fervently antiregulatory voters with its most toxic environmental conditions. It is a center of climate change denial despite the fact that its coast faces the highest rate of sea-level rise on the planet.”

Saturday, November 12, 2016

The Libertarian Argument for Basic Income

The Pragmatic Libertarian Case for a Basic Income Guarantee by Matt Zwolinski

Related: 

Economic Lessons from the Inter-War Period (1919-1939)

An interesting piece by Ruchir Sharma (Chief Global Strategist at Morgan Stanley):
“During and between the two world wars, the anti-global agenda reduced competition and worsened weak economic growth with rising inflation. Today, populists are again calling for protecting domestic industry and sharing wealth, which could have the same impact.”

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Related:
Why you cannot build the IPhone in America – A Lesson in Modern Global Manufacturing
https://www.technologyreview.com/s/601491/the-all-american-iphone/

2016 Electoral Stats

Interesting Highlights:
  • Around 100 million eligible voters apparently didn’t bother to vote in the 2016 Presidential elections.
  • 60.5 million voted for Hillary Clinton and 60.0 million voted for Donald Trump.
Detailed stats on voting patterns: