Weekend Reading 4/28

An Interesting Piece by Stephen Roach on China’s Economic Rebalancing

http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/why-slower-chinese-growth-may-be-healthy-by-stephen-s--roach

Reinhart and Rogoff’s Op-ed in the NYTIMES

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/26/opinion/debt-growth-and-the-austerity-debate.html

The Economist on Affirmative Action

http://www.economist.com/news/briefing/21576658-first-three-pieces-race-based-preferences-around-world-we-look-americas

Der Spiegel on Germany’s Potential Skilled Labor Shortage

http://www.spiegel.de/international/business/lack-of-skilled-labor-could-pose-future-threat-to-german-economy-a-894116.html

2013 Q1 US GDP Advance Estimate

Monetary Policy Related Developments

Profile of Fed Vice-Chairman – Janet Yellen

http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/25/business/janet-l-yellen-possible-fed-successor-has-admirers-and-foes.html

Central Banks and Gold Prices

http://www.bloomberg.com/video/central-banks-biggest-loser-in-gold-market-plunge-mZYlsNkcSjaO0BgWgnDrWA.html

Aussie-China Bond Purchase Deal

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22276222

Interesting Items 4/24

Germany’s Angela Merkel and the Eurozone Crisis

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887324695104578418813865393942.html

Impact of Strong Aussie Dollar

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-22275322

The Daily Show on Insider Trading Rules

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www.thedailyshow.com
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PBS Frontline’s The Retirement Gamble

Watch The Retirement Gamble on PBS. See more from FRONTLINE.

A Math Prodigy Passes Away

Ms. Shakuntala Devi - a multifaceted math prodigy - will be missed:
http://www.nytimes.com/2013/04/24/world/asia/shakuntala-devi-human-computer-dies-in-india-at-83.html

Public Debt and Economic Growth

John Cochrane on the Mechanics of Debt Sustainability (2012 video)

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While the controversy surrounding Reinhart & Rogoff (2010) paper continues unabated, it is worth noting that a more recent article (more of a survey article) by the same authors provides a relatively nuanced look at the relationship between public debt overhang and economic growth:

Reinhart, Carmen M., Vincent R. Reinhart, and Kenneth S. Rogoff. 2012. "Public Debt Overhangs: Advanced-Economy Episodes since 1800." Journal of Economic Perspectives, 26(3): 69-86.

Abstract:

We identify the major public debt overhang episodes in the advanced economies since the early 1800s, characterized by public debt to GDP levels exceeding 90 percent for at least five years. Consistent with Reinhart and Rogoff (2010) and most of the more recent research, we find that public debt overhang episodes are associated with lower growth than during other periods. The duration of the average debt overhang episode is perhaps its most striking feature. Among the 26 episodes we identify, 20 lasted more than a decade. The long duration belies the view that the correlation is caused mainly by debt buildups during business cycle recessions. The long duration also implies that the cumulative shortfall in output from debt overhang is potentially massive. These growth-reducing effects of high public debt are apparently not transmitted exclusively through high real interest rates, as in eleven of the episodes, interest rates are not materially higher.

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Some folks on the right have used the above study to analyze the US situation:

How the United States’ High Debt Will Weaken the Economy and Hurt Americans by

Romina Boccia (Heritage Foundation Backgrounder Piece)