Attention Economy


Saturday, February 26, 2011

Empiricists vs. Theoreticians

Christina Romer offers an interesting take (see above link) on the current debate surrounding Fed policy. In the process, she highlights the fundamental differences amongst two groups of economists:
“The debate is between what I would describe as empiricists and theorists.
Empiricists, as the name suggests, put most weight on the evidence. Empirical analysis shows that the main determinants of inflation are past inflation and unemployment. Inflation rises when unemployment is below normal and falls when it is above normal.
Theorists, on the other hand, emphasize economic models that assume people are highly rational in forming expectations of future inflation. In these models, Fed actions that call its commitment to low inflation into question can cause inflation expectations to spike, leading to actual increases in prices and wages.” - Romer

Friday, February 18, 2011

Thursday, February 17, 2011

Productivity, Growth and Jobs

Productivity and Jobs

Productivity and Growth 

India - Approaching a Milestone

It has been 20 Years since the 1991 "Big Bang" Liberalization program was initiated in India. The economic reforms have transformed the country. However, the reform process appears to have slowed down considerably of late.

India – Two Decades Later

Sunday, February 13, 2011

Technology and Job Creation/Destruction

The Rise of the Internet and the Gradual Demise of the TV Weathermen/Weatherwomen
http://www.businessweek.com/print/magazine/content/11_08/b4216073271349.htm

The More Things Change ... The More They Remain The Same

In the Sunday NYTIMES, Greg Mankiw rightly questions the widely held belief that the US is in some sort of a zero-sum economic competiton with emerging markets.

A far more articulate piece, that tears apart dubious claims made regarding the existence of zero-sum economic competition amongst nations, was written more than 16 years ago in Foreign Affairs by Paul Krugman (yes, the same Paul Krugman who now sounds more like an economically illiterate journalist; Krugman's evolution over the past 20 years makes one wonder if age really brings wisdom).

On a side note, those familiar with Krugman's China-bashing articles in recent months may find the following articles from the 1990s far more illuminating:
"In Praise of Cheap Labor: Bad jobs at bad wages are better than no jobs at all" by Paul Krugman
"The East Is in the Red: A balanced view of China's trade" by Paul Krugman

Saturday, February 12, 2011

The Egyptian Affair

Dictators, Despots, and Revolutions

Interesting Analyses of the Egyptian Situation:

P. Mishra in the Guardian


F. Ajami in Newsweek


Of course, it is inevitable that in the aftermath of momentous events some will seek to make claims of having being on the right side all along. For a case in point, see the quote from a Politico article:

“Despite the lack of an obvious roadmap for Egypt, allies of the White House moved swiftly to claim that Obama’s strategy, which was being panned in some quarters on Thursday as confused and ineffectual, had won out.”

Friday, February 11, 2011

Most Influential Economists

Results from a survey by The Economist


Top Economists: 
Check out the authors of AEA's list of the “Top 20 Articles” published over the past 100 years in the American Economic Review.
http://pubs.aeaweb.org/doi/pdfplus/10.1257/aer.101.1.1

QE2 - A Dumb and Ineffective Policy Measure


“Rising mortgage rates are an immediate consequence of the large jump in the U.S. government's borrowing costs in recent weeks. Mortgage rates tend to move in line with the yield on the 10-year Treasury note, which closed Thursday at 3.712%, up from its October low of 2.381%” - WSJ.

Wednesday, February 9, 2011

Being in Awe - The Dangers of Subjective Analysis

Being in Awe - The Dangers of Subjective Analysis

IMF economists and their pre-crisis appraisal of advanced economics

Monday, February 7, 2011

Top Economic Forecasters of 2010

WSJ Interviews Top Economic Prognosticators: