Friday, August 22, 2025

Does Europe Still Matter?

Europe Is Losing
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-is-losing-fe179376
European nations have fallen far behind in economic dynamism and military clout. Will the continent that once ruled the world become a bystander to history? 

Jerome Powell's Take on the State of the US Economy

Powell’s Take: Monetary Policy and the Fed’s Framework Review
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/speech/files/powell20250822.pdf
This year, the economy has faced new challenges. Significantly higher tariffs across our trading partners are remaking the global trading system. Tighter immigration policy has led to an abrupt slowdown in labor force growth. Over the longer run, changes in tax, spending, and regulatory policies may also have important implications for economic growth and productivity. There is significant uncertainty about where all of these polices will eventually settle and what their lasting effects on the economy will be.
Changes in trade and immigration policies are affecting both demand and supply. In this environment, distinguishing cyclical developments from trend, or structural, developments is difficult. This distinction is critical because monetary policy can work to stabilize cyclical fluctuations but can do little to alter structural changes.


Related:
Powell Is on the Cusp of Taking a Big Gamble with the U.S. Economy 
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/21/business/jerome-powell-fed-jackson-hole.html 

President Trump’s efforts to control the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics are among a series of moves that pose a larger threat, economists warn.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/business/trump-federal-reserve-bls.html


China, US, and the Future Global Economic Order

The New Economic Geography by ADAM POSEN (President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics)
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/new-economic-geography-posen
Who Profits in a Post-American World? 

The Weaponized World Economy
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/weaponized-world-economy-farrell-newman
Surviving the New Age of Economic Coercion.
 
China Is Enjoying Trump 2.0
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/china-enjoying-trump-20
How the Trade War Is Helping Beijing Prepare for Long-Term Competition.
 
The Real China Model
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/real-china-model-wang-kroeber
Beijing’s Enduring Formula for Wealth and Power. 

A Long-Term Threat to the US Economy

Trump’s Attacks on Institutions Threaten a Bulwark of Economic Strength
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/08/22/business/trump-federal-reserve-bls.html
President Trump’s efforts to control the Federal Reserve and the Bureau of Labor Statistics are among a series of moves that pose a larger threat, economists warn. 

The AI Vibe Shift


An MIT report that 95% of AI pilots fail spooked investors. But it’s the reason why those pilots failed that should make the C-suite anxious
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mit-report-95-ai-pilots-165754716.html

Disagreement Among Economists

Economists disagree about everything. Don’t they?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/08/21/economists-disagree-about-everything-dont-they
Their discipline is famous for its fissiparousness. 

On Globalization

Was globalization ever a meritocracy?
https://www.economist.com/international/2025/08/19/was-globalisation-ever-a-meritocracy
The Trumpian assault on globalism, as seen from Singapore.