The Economist highlights the relatively imperfect science of
measuring the benefits of trade agreements:
“That also points to
one of the many blind spots in CGE models. Most use figures from Purdue
University’s Global Trade Analysis Project, the best database available. But
since it was initially developed for agriculture, it is skewed. It has separate
categories for raw milk and dairy products, but lumps pharmaceuticals into one
overarching category for chemicals—a problem for models since TPP deals
extensively with drugmakers’ IP. Given the uncertainty, Messrs Ciuriak and Xiao
exclude any impact from enhanced protection of IP. They also use a more
conventional model for exports. They calculate that TPP will raise the GDP of
the 12 countries by just $74 billion by 2035, a mere 0.21% higher than baseline
forecasts. Others see an even smaller impact. In a paper for the Asian
Development Bank Institute, Inkyo Cheong forecasts that America’s GDP will be
entirely unchanged by TPP.”