US and China - Two Predatory Superpowers

A world with two predatory superpowers by Martin Wolf
https://www.ft.com/content/f836b4e2-38d7-4ffb-b526-2a777988b0ff 

Trump Is Losing His Geoeconomic War
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-losing-geoeconomic-war-dollar-decline-most-likely-outcome-by-harold-james-2025-10
In seeking to weaponize the US economy and financial system against China, Russia, and many other countries, Donald Trump has picked a fight that he cannot win. After all, it is much easier for other countries to develop alternatives to the dollar than for America suddenly to develop its own rare earths industry. 
 
Trump’s Beggar-the-Poor Remittance Tax
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-remittance-tax-wake-up-call-to-developing-countries-by-hippolyte-fofack-2025-09
Remittance inflows to low-income countries have improved welfare, reduced poverty, and enhanced economic resilience. But with the Trump administration’s 1% tax on remittances threatening to erode these benefits, the developing world must address the underlying causes of brain drain and pursue technology-led growth.
 
U.S. Pulls Plug on Haiti’s Last Big Industry
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/u-s-pulls-plug-on-haitis-last-big-industry-eef9d26f
The end of a trade initiative imperils embattled clothing exporters that employ thousands who make garments for Hanes, Calvin Klein and Gap.

Forex Trading Volumes

Global currency market swells to $10tn a day in tariff turmoil
https://www.ft.com/content/aa2c6792-2c64-4567-8285-dea6e062b7f0 

How the Political Left Lost the Working Class

Why the Working Class Matters
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/abandoned-by-the-left-workers-turn-to-far-right-by-yanis-varoufakis-2025-09
For the Western left, the lesson of the last decade is agonizingly clear. To focus exclusively on identity – on race and gender – while ignoring the material reality of class and repudiating the working class itself, is a catastrophic strategic error.  

Rally in EM Assets

Emerging markets are finally rallying
https://www.ft.com/content/359c54b6-82d0-45b1-985c-5427f062fd42
Despite the gloom over Trump trade war fallout, assets in developing economies are showing strong gains.

China - Interesting Items

Tourists Are Flocking to a Chinese Megacity That’s Straight Out of Sci-Fi
https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/travel/tourists-are-flocking-to-a-chinese-megacity-thats-straight-out-of-sci-fi-4f65fa6a 

What It Takes to Get Lunch Delivered to the 70th Floor
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/world/asia/china-delivery-shenzhen.html
In China, an informal network of last-mile runners close the gap between harried delivery drivers and hungry office workers in a Shenzhen skyscraper.

GM’s EV Plans – A Swing and a Miss

Why General Motors Boss Mary Barra Is Slamming the Brakes on Lofty EV Ambitions
https://www.wsj.com/business/autos/general-motors-ev-mary-barra-8e5c1eb2
Falling consumer demand and shriveling government support undermine GM’s all-electric plans. 

Simplifying Monetary Policymaking

The Fed Needs to Keep It Simple
https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-09-29/the-federal-reserve-needs-to-simplify-its-monetary-policy-explanations
A less complicated approach to explaining the Federal Reserve’s policy decisions would make it more credible. 

Jobpocalypse

The graduate ‘jobpocalypse’: Where have all the entry-level jobs gone? 

Congratulations Graduates, You’re Unemployed
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/congratulations-graduates-youre-unemployed-ec2a783d

Related:

Millions of Workers Are Left Out of the ‘Low-Hire, Low-Fire’ US Job Market
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2025-09-29/weak-jobs-growth-leads-to-millions-of-us-workers-left-out

Evaluating the Impact of AI on the Labor Market: Current State of Affairs
https://budgetlab.yale.edu/research/evaluating-impact-ai-labor-market-current-state-affairs

America's Unbalanced Economy

Beneath the GDP, a Recession Warning
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/beneath-the-gdp-a-recession-warning-fff133de
Business spending dropped sharply in the second quarter. Blame the trade war.

How to explain 4% growth and no jobs
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/how-explain-4-growth-no-jobs-2025-09-30

Small Businesses Wither Under Trump’s Tariffs: ‘It’s Hard to Breathe’
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/business/trump-tariffs-small-businesses.html
Import duties are posing a challenge to some smaller companies, which fear that raising prices to cover higher costs will drive away customers.

 
Rate Cuts Might Not Cure What Ails the Job Market
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/jobs-market-interest-rate-cuts-7a016ba3
Tariffs, tight credit weigh on hiring plans while some channels for rate relief are clogged.
 
The Credit Market Is Humming—and That Has Wall Street On Edge
https://www.wsj.com/finance/the-credit-market-is-hummingand-that-has-wall-street-on-edge-0721c324
Concerns mount that a frothy market is concealing signs of excess; sudden bankruptcies rattle investors.
 
Debt Is Fueling the Next Wave of the AI Boom
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/debt-is-fueling-the-next-wave-of-the-ai-boom-278d0e04
For aspiring AI players like Oracle, much rides on debt and hope. 

The Two-Speed Economy

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2025/09/the-two-speed-economy.html

China - A Science Superpower

In the race to attract the world’s smartest minds, China is gaining on the US
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/29/china/china-reverse-brain-drain-science-tech-competition-us-intl-hnk
 
Abandoning the US: top Chinese scientists return home
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/series/3325286/abandoning-us-top-chinese-scientists-return-home
Top scientists have been leaving the US for China in a wave that is changing the landscape of global research. In this series, the Post focuses on some of the experts who have made the move.
 
50 years on, has China left Europe behind in the race for a hi-tech future?
https://www.scmp.com/news/china/diplomacy/article/3327081/50-years-has-china-left-europe-behind-race-hi-tech-future
Chinese firms have caught up with and in some cases overtaken their European rivals, putting the EU on the defensive.
 
China's Role in Global Innovation
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2025/08/chinas-role-in-global-innovation.html 

China's new K visa beckons foreign tech talent as US hikes H-1B fee
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/chinas-new-k-visa-beckons-foreign-tech-talent-us-hikes-h-1b-fee-2025-09-29

History Lesson: Timeline of Major Tech Breakthroughs

9 Technologies That Transformed Investing—From the Telegraph to AI
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/9-technologies-transformed-investing-telegraph-ai-2cd029dc
In the early days of the country, each city conducted its own financial business. Here are the key innovations that changed everything. 

2016 PBS piece on Technological Progress and Long-Run Growth
https://youtu.be/Fcw4iO3Xx8E?t=22

What Was the Greatest Era for Innovation? A Brief Guided Tour 
https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/15/upshot/what-was-the-greatest-era-for-american-innovation-a-brief-guided-tour.html

India's Economic Advantages

India’s Economy Is Stronger Than Trump Thinks
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/how-india-can-overcome-threat-posed-by-trump-tariffs-and-h1b-fees-by-shang-jin-wei-2025-09
While US President Donald Trump’s tariff hikes and H-1B visa shake-up will likely deal a sharp blow to India’s export and IT sectors, they are far from fatal. In fact, with its vast population and robust domestic demand, India is better positioned than most to withstand external shocks. 

India should not shed tears over H-1B visas
https://www.ft.com/content/e3dba93b-7a52-4c4f-a25a-27ef376c7a24
The shock of Trump’s $100,000 fee is an opportunity to reverse the brain drain and move up the value chain.

Trump visa curbs push US firms to consider shifting more work to India
https://www.reuters.com/world/india/trump-visa-curbs-push-us-firms-consider-shifting-more-work-india-2025-09-30

The US Will Rue Trump’s Trade War on India
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/america-will-regret-trump-tariffs-on-india-by-duvvuri-subbarao-1-2025-09

India can shrug off Donald Trump’s tariffs
https://www.ft.com/content/93935469-a18e-4480-b809-a461df846bab
New trade deals, high-tech services and potential reforms would outweigh the US president’s duties. 

How India can trump US tariffs
https://www.ft.com/content/887c2e2c-8912-4ed7-bece-acfacc4f7e84
It should unleash the potential of its vast internal market with reform and investment. 

Asian Geopolitics

India and the Rebalancing of Asia
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/26/india-modi-geopolitics-china-asia-usa-indo-pacific-balance-power 

The Two Southeast Asias
https://www.foreignaffairs.com/southeast-asia/two-southeast-asias
A Divide Is Growing Between the Region’s Continental and Maritime Countries.

Too Much Exposure to the Stock Market?

Americans have more money in stocks than ever before. Economists say that’s a bright red flag.
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/28/business/us-stocks-record-highs-american-households 

Are US Treasuries Still a Risk-Free Asset?

Why Microsoft Has Lower Borrowing Costs Than the U.S.
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/why-microsoft-has-lower-borrowing-costs-than-the-u-s-de841633
There are several theories for why anyone would pay more for a bond from Microsoft or Johnson & Johnson than for a Treasury. 

FT's Masters in Management Rankings

Masters in Management Rankings – 2025
https://rankings.ft.com/rankings/3004/masters-in-management-2025 

Foreign Policy Delusions

Trump’s Peacemaker Hype
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-absurd-unga-claim-to-have-ended-seven-wars-in-seven-months-by-brahma-chellaney-2025-09
Donald Trump’s Nobel Peace Prize campaign – which he recently took to the United Nations General Assembly – has followed a familiar pattern: invent or inflate a problem, claim to have solved it, and then demand a reward. The Norwegian Nobel Committee will not be fooled, but the same cannot be said for Trump’s base.  

The political battle of our age is not between Left and Right, but sane and insane
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/27/trump-farage-special-relationship-sane-insane/
Europe and America have never seemed further apart, as Trump and his cronies attempt to push the politics of personal vengeance worldwide.

AI and the Weak Job Market

Walmart CEO Issues Wake-Up Call: ‘AI Is Going to Change Literally Every Job’
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/walmart-ceo-doug-mcmillon-ai-job-losses-dbaca3aa
The country’s largest private employer says its head count will stay flat over the next three years, despite plans to grow, as AI eliminates some roles and transforms others.
 
Laid-Off Tech Workers Say H-1B Crackdown Won’t Help Them Get a Job
https://www.wsj.com/economy/jobs/trump-h1b-fees-tech-worker-reactions-c43e0c96
Many say their biggest problems are a weak domestic job market, the rise of AI and a glut of displaced people looking for similar roles. 

American Capitalism

A Timeline of Key Moments in American Capitalism
https://www.wsj.com/economy/american-economy-capitalism-history-timeline-b9193c67
From the Declaration of Independence, to railroads, to the rise of conglomerates: Here are 51 seminal moments in the development of U.S. capitalism. 

The Great Divergence

Innovation and the Great Divergence
https://warwick.ac.uk/fac/soc/economics/research/centres/cage/manage/publications/wp771.2025.pdf
Abstract: Recent developments in historical national accounting suggest that the timing of the Great Divergence hinges on the different trends in northwest Europe and the Yangzi Delta region of China. The positive trend of GDP per capita in northwest Europe after 1700 was a continuation of a process that began in the fourteenth century, while the negative trend in the Yangzi Delta continued a pattern of alternating periods of growing and shrinking, but reaching a new lower level. These GDP per capita trends were driven by different paths of innovation. TFP growth was strongly positive in Britain after the Black Death, in the Netherlands during the sixteenth century and again in Britain from the mid-seventeenth century. Although TFP growth was positive in China during the Northern Song dynasty, it was predominantly negative during the Ming and Qing dynasties, in the Yangzi Delta as well as in China as a whole. 

Two Paths to Prosperity: Culture and Institutions in Europe and China, 1000–2000
https://press.princeton.edu/books/hardcover/9780691265940/two-paths-to-prosperity

Tech Lords and Populists

How tech lords and populists changed the rules of power
https://www.ft.com/content/85ee3be0-c9a6-4a1d-baf9-8b2ca9e46a85 

BRICS+ and EM Equities

As Emerging-Market Stocks Rally, Here’s Why It’s Worth Watching the BRICS+
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/emerging-market-stocks-rally-heres-why-its-worth-watching-brics
The rise of BRICS will rearrange how investors allocate wealth, according to Pictet’s Vassalou. 

Automation and Robots

There Are More Robots Working in China than the Rest of the World Combined
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/business/china-factory-robots.html
 
Global Robot Demand in Factories Doubles Over 10 Years
https://ifr.org/ifr-press-releases/news/global-robot-demand-in-factories-doubles-over-10-years 

Populism in Europe

Europe’s Right-Wing Populists Swerve Left on the Economy
https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/europe-populist-right-wing-left-economics-eb7d3f9f
The adoption of a high-spending, pro-welfare and protectionist agenda has been key in winning over blue-collar workers. 

Did the political establishment pave the way for Trump and Farage?
https://www.ft.com/content/95984feb-e44b-401a-80b2-0206cfc5c3bf
New research suggests mainstream politicians created an opening for the populist right.

Britain isn’t a sharia state. But we need to wake up
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/26/britain-isnt-sharia-state-but-we-need-to-wake-up/
Other faiths with their own religious courts are not seeking to impose their ‘laws’ on the rest of society.

Britain has a de facto blasphemy law, but it only protects one religion
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2025/09/25/britain-de-facto-blasphemy-law-only-protects-islam/
The leniency shown to a knife-wielding Muslim man will simply stoke resentment.

The Battle for Top Talent

How to spot a genius
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/09/23/how-to-spot-a-genius
In an age of artificial intelligence, the human kind is increasingly important.
 
The AI talent war is becoming fiercer
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/09/25/the-ai-talent-war-is-becoming-fiercer
How other countries hope to challenge America.

As Trump Tightens Visas, China Woos World’s Science Graduates

https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/world/asia/china-tech-workers-visas-us-h1b.html

A new visa for science and engineering graduates is part of China’s effort to establish itself as the world leader in science and technology.

Canada Wants to Lure Tech Workers Who Won’t Get US H-1B Visas
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/canada-wants-lure-tech-workers-123541706.html

Germany Courts Indian Talent After Trump Targets H-1B Visa
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-09-24/germany-courts-indian-talent-after-trump-targets-h-1b-visas

Germany Woos Indian Workers Spooked by U.S. Visa Changes
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/24/business/germany-india-skilled-workers-visa.html

The UAE’s University of AI is a pipeline for top tech talent
https://restofworld.org/2025/uae-ai-university/
UAE has secured massive computing power. Its state-backed flagship university is now on the prowl for talent.

 

The Path to the American Dream Is Narrowing for Indian Tech Workers

https://www.wsj.com/world/india/h1b-visas-india-tech-engineering-834e079a

About 70% of H-1B visas go to Indians. Looming changes to the program are upending plans, but may help India retain talent. 

Asian Universities - An Affordable Alternative for International Students

Asian countries are nabbing a lot more foreign students
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/09/25/asian-countries-are-nabbing-a-lot-more-foreign-students
Degrees from East Asia are cheap, and growing more prestigious. 

Corporations Cave In

Why Corporate America Is Caving to Trump
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/26/business/trump-disney-paramount-shareholder-capitalism.html
When broadcasters like CBS and ABC surrendered to the president, it looked as if they lacked backbone. The explanation runs much deeper. 

Economic Cost of Trump’s Tariffs

The Economic Cost of Trump’s Tariff Revival
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/the-economic-cost-of-trumps-tariff-revival-f9237364
America has a choice to make: Do we go back to the policies of Ronald Reagan or of Herbert Hoover? 

The AI Bubble - Time to Start Fretting?

The stock market is a timebomb waiting to go off
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/27/the-stock-market-is-a-timebomb-waiting-to-go-off/
Jeremy Warner:
Another characteristic of the latter stages of a bull market is the tendency to ignore bad news, or delusionally to regard it as good news. Almost everywhere you look, the world seems to be going to hell in a handcart, yet US stock markets remain almost entirely oblivious to this phalanx of negativity.

Spending on AI Is at Epic Levels. Will It Ever Pay Off?
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/ai-bubble-building-spree-55ee6128
Tech companies are pouring hundreds of billions into data centers, taking on heavy debt, but current revenue is relatively tiny. Critics warn of a new dot-com bubble.
 
AI investment bubble inflated by trio of dilemmas 
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/ai-investment-bubble-inflated-by-trio-dilemmas-2025-09-25
Tech firms are sinking trillions of dollars into artificial intelligence to defend their lucrative businesses. Cloud computing firms worry rivals will eat their lunch. Investors, meanwhile, prefer the risk of future losses to relative underperformance. None can escape the craze. 

The murky economics of the data-center investment boom
https://www.economist.com/business/2025/09/30/the-murky-economics-of-the-data-centre-investment-boom
How similar is it to the 1990s telecoms bubble?

The $100bn deal sparking fears of a dotcom-style crash
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/24/100bn-deal-signals-ai-bubble-burst/
Nvidia’s eye-watering investment in OpenAI has experts worrying that the AI bubble is about to burst.

Portfolio Diversification - Does it Still Make Sense?

History shows investors that it pays to diversify
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/25/history-shows-investors-that-it-pays-to-diversify/
For a smoother ride and better returns, don’t just grit your teeth and stick with it. 

Is the diversified portfolio dead? The AI boom has turned an age-old investing rule on its head.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/is-the-diversified-portfolio-dead-the-ai-boom-has-turned-an-age-old-investing-rule-on-its-head-3e1405f7

Is Economics too Reliant on the Wrong Kind of Mathematics?

The Wrong Kind of Math
https://www.ft.com/content/29259300-e318-462b-9518-1b7e8849fbb3
Tim Harford:
All this suggests that maybe the problem economics faces isn’t that it is too mathematical, but that the mathematics it has used for decades — one heavily based on classical physics — is needlessly narrow. 

Goods versus Services Inflation

Trump’s biggest inflation worry might not come from his tariffs on goods
https://www.ft.com/content/7aa9f3f9-1901-40af-8f3c-7e2cb2d08b7a
The president could plausibly be blamed for rising prices in services including power, health and education. 

More than a feeling? Making sense of elevated inflation expectations
https://www.minneapolisfed.org/article/2025/more-than-a-feeling-making-sense-of-elevated-inflation-expectations
Why consumers might see hotter inflation ahead than investors and experts do.

Education, Human Capital, and the Quality of the American Workforce

What Declines in Reading and Math Mean for U.S. Students and the Economy
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/25/us/what-declines-in-reading-and-math-mean-for-the-us-work-force.html
Employers and colleges are contending with more young people who are behind academically. Some are trying to make up where schools have failed.
 
Why Johnny Can’t Add Anymore
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/u-s-math-education-crpe-report-naep-scores-648adf94
Low standards and ideological fights don’t help students, as math scores plummet. 
 
Failing Schools Are Why We Need H-1B Visas
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/failing-schools-are-why-we-need-h-1b-visas-6630267c
The Trump administration risks losing American companies by making it costly to hire foreigners.
 
Is Gen Z Unemployable?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/is-gen-z-unemployable-288d2ec9
Hiring managers prize achievement, learning and work. Today’s youth value pleasure and individuality. 

Related:

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2025/08/americas-education-crisis.html

https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2024/12/international-comparison-adult-skill.html

Conflict of Interest?

Harvard’s Public Health Dean Was Paid $150,000 to Testify Tylenol Causes Autism
https://www.thecrimson.com/article/2025/9/24/autism-dean-public-health/ 

Gen Z - Unemployable?

Is Gen Z Unemployable?
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/is-gen-z-unemployable-288d2ec9
Hiring managers prize achievement, learning and work. Today’s youth value pleasure and individuality. 

Passive Investing - Too Much of a Good Thing

When Boring Became Beautiful for Stock-Market Investors
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/index-funds-investing-stock-market-f747f46f
Index funds were first considered nonsense. That nonsense now rules among many individual investors.
 
The Dominance of Passive Investing and Its Effect on Financial Markets
https://merage.uci.edu/news/2024/10/The-Dominance-of-Passive-Investing-and-Its-Effect-on-Financial-Markets.html
 
Passive Investing and the Rise of Mega-Firms
https://personal.lse.ac.uk/vayanos/Papers/PIRMF_RFSf.pdf 

The H1-B Visa Debacle

New US curb on high-skill immigrant workers ignores evidence of its likely harms
https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economics/2025/new-us-curb-high-skill-immigrant-workers-ignores-evidence-its-likely
H-1B workers are not merely jobholders; their labor is a crucial factor of production that drives US economic growth and opportunity, extensive research has found. From 1990 to 2010, rising numbers of H-1B holders caused 30–50 percent of all productivity growth in the US economy. This means that the jobs and wages of most Americans depend in some measure on these workers.

High-Skilled Visas Have Problems. Trump’s $100,000 Fee Won’t Fix Them.
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/29/business/economy/h1b-visas-problems.html
For years, proposals have circulated to stop abuse of the H-1B program. The Trump administration’s big changes largely ignored them. 

Trump’s visa squeeze sparks chaos in Silicon Valley
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/27/trumps-visa-squeeze-sparks-chaos-in-silicon-valley/

Trump’s H-1B visa caper will backfire

https://www.ft.com/content/9fc8f69e-52dc-4552-bcde-e39eb6b0df84
The move shows how slender a grasp the president has of what makes the American economy so successful.
 
Failing Schools Are Why We Need H-1B Visas
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/failing-schools-are-why-we-need-h-1b-visas-6630267c
The Trump administration risks losing American companies by making it costly to hire foreigners.

Silicon Valley hiring in turmoil after new H-1B visa fees, move spurs offshoring talk
https://www.reuters.com/sustainability/sustainable-finance-reporting/silicon-valley-hiring-turmoil-after-new-h-1b-visa-fees-move-spurs-offshoring-2025-09-23
The Trump administration's hefty new visa fees for H-1B workers have prompted high-level talks inside companies in Silicon Valley and beyond on the possibility of moving more jobs overseas - precisely the outcome the policy was meant to stop.
 
US grabs visa pennies in economic steamroller path
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/us-grabs-visa-pennies-economic-steamroller-path-2025-09-22

Reverse brain drain: governments hope to lure talent after US visa change
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/reverse-brain-drain-governments-hope-lure-talent-after-us-visa-change-2025-09-22

H-1B Visas Are Good for U.S. Workers
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/h-1b-visas-are-good-for-u-s-workers-ac53affa
Foreigners often bring rare skills that boost the productivity of their colleagues and companies.

H-1B visa war will accelerate AI jobs reckoning
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/h-1b-visa-war-will-accelerate-ai-jobs-reckoning-2025-09-22

Trump’s $100,000 Visa Fee Spurs Confusion and Chaos
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/20/business/trump-h1b-visas-fee-employees.html
The White House sought to clarify the proclamation, but many companies were cautious. “We are still flying in somewhat foggy conditions,” one attorney said.

The AI Spending Boom

The murky economics of the data-center investment boom
https://www.economist.com/business/2025/09/30/the-murky-economics-of-the-data-centre-investment-boom
How similar is it to the 1990s telecoms bubble?

The $100bn deal sparking fears of a dotcom-style crash
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/24/100bn-deal-signals-ai-bubble-burst/
Nvidia’s eye-watering investment in OpenAI has experts worrying that the AI bubble is about to burst.

How Nvidia Is Backstopping America’s AI Boom
https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/how-nvidia-is-backstopping-americas-ai-boom-875c1346
The chipmaker’s partnership with OpenAI has helped reset market expectations about the startup’s finances.

Why Nvidia Is Spending So Much Money
https://www.wsj.com/tech/why-nvidia-is-spending-so-much-money-309dfae3
Its growing cash pile has to be put to work somehow, and M&A looks off the table.

America’s top companies keep talking about AI — but can’t explain the upsides
https://www.ft.com/content/e93e56df-dd9b-40c1-b77a-dba1ca01e473
FT analysis of hundreds of filings suggest the S&P 500 businesses are clearer about the risks than benefits.

What if the $3trn AI investment boom goes wrong?
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/09/11/what-if-the-3trn-ai-investment-boom-goes-wrong
Even if the technology achieves its potential, plenty of people will lose their shirts.
 
What if the AI stock market blows up?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/09/07/what-if-the-ai-stockmarket-blows-up 

How America’s AI boom is squeezing the rest of the economy
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/08/18/how-americas-ai-boom-is-squeezing-the-rest-of-the-economy
 
The AI Boom’s Hidden Risk to the Economy
https://www.wsj.com/economy/the-ai-booms-hidden-risk-to-the-economy-731b00d6
The build-out of artificial-intelligence infrastructure is costing a fortune, straining companies and capital markets.

AI Is Pointless If It Doesn’t Boost Productivity
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/ai-investment-boom-pointless-unless-boosts-productivity-by-jim-o-neill-2025-09
If all those pushing AI want it to serve society, they should develop a serious, clear, evidence-based plan to ensure that the technology contributes to productivity growth where it is needed most. Otherwise, we all must ask what the current massive sums of investment are for.
 
AI, Baumol, and the Healthcare Hump
https://www.haver.com/articles/ai-baumol-and-the-healthcare-hump 

The Clean-Energy Race is Over

The U.S. Is Forfeiting the Clean-Energy Race to China
https://www.wsj.com/economy/global/the-u-s-is-forfeiting-the-clean-energy-race-to-china-e822ab57
As President Trump doubles down on fossil fuels, the U.S. and China offer competing visions for the future of energy. 

The Coming Ecological Cold War: Decarbonization isn’t just about technology and markets—it’s a geopolitical revolution.
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/01/ecological-cold-war-climate-china-europe-usa-russia
 
Like Reagan, Trump is slashing environment regulations, but his strategy may have a far deeper impact
https://theconversation.com/like-reagan-trump-is-slashing-environment-regulations-but-his-strategy-may-have-a-far-deeper-impact-262929

Trump Cedes the Clean Energy Lead to China
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/29/trump-china-clean-energy-transition-renewables-fossil-fuels-wind-farm/
As Washington turns its back on wind and solar, Beijing is racing ahead.

China’s Decarbonization Is So Fast Even New Coal Plants Aren’t Stopping It
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/08/21/china-clean-renewable-energy-coal-plants-emissions/
Advances in clean energy are compensating for new construction.
 
Trump’s Global War on Decarbonization
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/trump-global-war-on-decarbonization-green-technologies-by-mark-blyth-and-daniel-driscoll-2025-08
The Trump administration is doing everything it can to ensure that fossil fuels remain dominant in the energy mix of the twenty-first century. If it succeeds, the short-term returns to the US will be huge; but the long-term damage to the planet will be orders of magnitude larger.

A Positive Story Involving AI

Farmers in India Are Tracking Monsoon Season with the Help of AI
https://www.wsj.com/articles/farmers-in-india-are-tracking-monsoon-season-with-the-help-of-ai-487b5387
Weather-tracking data is getting more granular thanks to artificial intelligence. 

Goodhart’s Law

UK struggles to escape rule of Goodhart’s Law 
https://www.reuters.com/commentary/breakingviews/uk-struggles-escape-rule-goodharts-law-2025-09-22
Felix Martin:
The failure of elected leaders to make good on their policy promises is the main fuel of the populist wildfire that has swept through liberal democracies for the last decade. In today’s intensely polarised era, it is tempting to blame incompetence, bad faith, and or even the enemy within, opens new tab.
The lesson of Goodhart’s Law is that the real culprit may be more mundane: all too often, data-driven policymaking is the disease for which it claims to be the cure. 

Rules for Success

There Are No Rules for Success
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/there-are-no-rules-for-success-6928523c
Young people, it’s time to create your own path - maybe even your own jobs. 

A Stock Market Melt Up and then a Crash?

Black Swan Manager Sees Huge Rally, Then 1929-Style Crash
https://www.wsj.com/finance/stocks/black-swan-manager-sees-huge-rally-then-1929-style-crash-f2d16c9b
Mark Spitznagel’s hedge fund has earned bonanzas when stock prices collapse. 

A stock market crash may be just around the corner
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/18/a-stock-market-crash-may-be-just-around-the-corner/
We are in the early days of the final, frothy stage of a bull market.

US savers go all in on 'cult of equity'
https://www.reuters.com/markets/funds/us-savers-go-all-cult-equity-2025-09-22
U.S. pension funds and households have never held more equities as a share of their overall assets, by some measures, raising questions about whether the long-term shift towards stocks has run its course or whether investors have truly undergone a paradigm shift.

The ‘Smart Money' Is Flashing a Warning for Stocks
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the--smart-money--is-flashing-a-warning-for-stocks-84101.html

Should Stock Investors Look Beyond the Tech Giants?
https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/should-stock-investors-look-beyond-the-tech-giants

Investor Jean-Philippe Bouchaud: ‘The whole bull run is because of an influx of money’
https://www.ft.com/content/6f549890-c2a6-4823-a095-c8ea73f7e6bb 

Global economy takes Trump shocks in stride, for now
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/global-economy-takes-trump-shocks-stride-now-2025-09-19

Novo Nordisk and the Danish Economy

Novo Nordisk’s Woes Are Slimming Denmark’s Economic Growth
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/09/22/business/novo-nordisk-denmark-economy.html
Because of its size, the drugmaker has an outsize effect on the country. Now, as it sheds jobs, forecasts for Denmark’s growth are falling, too. 

Exploitation of International Students by Western Universities and Recruiting Agents

The shadow economy behind the international student boom (FT Report)
A lucrative revenue stream for universities has led to an industry of unregulated agents now under scrutiny for making lofty promises.
https://www.ft.com/content/3f496166-4292-46af-b690-114a4d2b3fd0 

American Colleges Are Going All Out to Hold On to International Students
https://www.wsj.com/us-news/education/international-student-enrollment-decline-college-ad13f943
International students contributed $43.8 billion to the U.S. economy in a recent year.

The Gen Z Stare

How Social Media Creates Flabby Young Brains
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/how-social-media-creates-flabby-young-brains-c99f92e2
The ‘Gen Z stare’ is one symptom of widespread overconsumption of electronic entertainment. 

South Korea’s Soft Power

‘KPop Demon Hunters’ Leads the Wave Back to Korea
https://foreignpolicy.com/2025/09/19/kpop-demon-hunters-netflix-south-korea-culture-music/
 
South Korea wins hearts and minds with KPop Demon Hunters
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2025/09/21/south-korea-wins-hearts-and-minds-with-kpop-demon-hunters 

Money Markets - Still Attractive?

U.S. Investors Are Flush with Cash, and Happy to Keep It There
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/us-investors-cash-94116602
Money-market funds reached another record this month, with some $7.7 trillion in assets. 

Early Warning Signs of a Slowing Economy

Cardboard-Box Demand Is Slumping. Why That’s Bad News for the Economy.
https://www.wsj.com/business/cardboard-box-demand-is-slumping-why-thats-bad-news-for-the-economy-e6ec42da
Mills that make the material for corrugated packaging are closing at an unprecedented pace this year. 

Protection Against Trump Tariffs

Export diversification and a large domestic consumer market offer India some degree of insulation against Trump tariffs:
India can shrug off Donald Trump’s tariffs
https://www.ft.com/content/93935469-a18e-4480-b809-a461df846bab
New trade deals, high-tech services and potential reforms would outweigh the US president’s duties. 

How India can trump US tariffs
https://www.ft.com/content/887c2e2c-8912-4ed7-bece-acfacc4f7e84
It should unleash the potential of its vast internal market with reform and investment. 

Singapore Deals with Geopolitical Uncertainty

One of Globalization’s Biggest Winners Navigates a Less Predictable World
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/one-of-globalizations-biggest-winners-navigates-a-less-predictable-world-2511d361
Singapore deepens ties with other nations as U.S. rethinks trade and security. 

How the U.S. overtook Britain in the 19th century

The Industrial Revolution in the United States: 1790-1870
https://www.nber.org/papers/w34225
Abstract
This chapter explores the distinctive trajectory of American industrialization up to 1870, emphasizing how the United States adapted and transformed British technologies to suit its unique economic and resource conditions. Rather than a straightforward transfer of innovations, the chapter argues that American industrial development was shaped by path-dependent processes and historical contingencies—such as the Embargo Act of 1807 and government sponsorship of firearms production—that enabled the emergence of a domestic innovation ecosystem. The chapter offers fresh insights into how high-pressure steam engines, vertically integrated textile mills, and precision manufacturing techniques evolved in response to labor scarcity, capital constraints, and abundant natural resources. A particularly novel contribution is the detailed analysis of how American manufacturers substituted mechanization and organizational innovation for skilled labor, leading to the development of technologies that were not only distinct from their British counterparts but also foundational for the Second Industrial Revolution. The chapter also highlights the democratization of invention, showing how economic incentives and institutional support fostered widespread innovation among ordinary citizens. By integrating technological, economic, and institutional perspectives, this chapter provides a compelling explanation for why the United States developed a robust manufacturing sector despite seemingly unfavorable initial conditions. 

Argentina's Gamble

The Economic Gamble Under Milei
https://youtu.be/aWXmi5afOtk 

Milei Fixed Half of Argentina’s Inflation Problem. He Needs Help with the Rest.
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/argentina-milei-inflation-economy-help-96966c6d
The central bank no longer prints money to finance deficits, but a run on the currency could still cause prices to surge.

Argentina Is Losing Faith in Milei’s Free-Market Revolution
https://www.wsj.com/world/americas/argentina-is-losing-faith-in-mileis-free-market-revolution-9475ba42
The Argentine leader is facing shrinking public support as factories close and the economy falters before a pivotal midterm election.

How to exorcise Argentina’s economic demons
https://www.ft.com/content/5a747a2a-84bd-45cd-a5a5-3eb8014d9aaa

Related:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2025/09/26/argentinas-financial-crash-is-the-first-big-defeat-for-trum/

AI and the Future of Equity Research

AI will disrupt equity research from the bottom-up 
https://www.ft.com/content/137ed8ea-5711-4b11-8458-44152fb44990
AI technologies will change working practices across many white-collar professions, including investment banking. Tasks at the bottom of traditional career pyramids are likely to be automated first. Those towards the top will take much longer. 

A North African Manufacturing Powerhouse

Morocco is now a trade and manufacturing powerhouse
https://www.economist.com/business/2025/09/04/morocco-is-now-a-trade-and-manufacturing-powerhouse
The country’s ports and factories are humming. 

Rate Cut Bets: Will Wall Street Get it Wrong Again?

Wall Street Bets Rates Will Drop Much More Than Fed’s Forecasts
https://www.wsj.com/finance/investing/interest-rates-bets-investors-f47c12be
The wager is already boosting the economy by making borrowing cheaper for Americans. The risk now is that investors have become overly optimistic about rate cuts. 

Fed could abandon 'illusion of precision' with inflation range
https://www.reuters.com/markets/europe/fed-could-abandon-illusion-precision-with-inflation-range-2025-09-25

What Investors Need to Know About the Steepening Yield Curve
https://www.morningstar.com/markets/what-investors-need-know-about-steepening-yield-curve
Short-term yields are falling as the Fed cuts interest rates.

Greece’s Comeback Story

Greece Seeks Foreign Investors to Buy into Recovery Story
https://www.wsj.com/economy/greece-seeks-foreign-investors-to-buy-into-recovery-story-ec89e7b6
The government’s pitch to investors follows an acceleration of economic growth in the second quarter, having already outpaced the European average in 2024. 

Americans Abroad Pretend to be Canadians

Some American travelers are ‘flag jacking’ and Canadians are livid
https://www.cnn.com/2025/09/18/travel/american-travelers-canadian-flag-jacking
“… some US tourists have revived a decades-old practice of masquerading as Canadians in order to avoid anti-American sentiment abroad under the Trump administration. They’re hiding behind the maple leaf, falsely identifying themselves as Canadians and displaying the Canadian flag on their bags in a phenomenon known as flag jacking”. 

Related:

A Lawless Nation
https://paulkrugman.substack.com/p/a-lawless-nation
Friends don’t let friends visit America.

A New Super Cycle for Commodities?

Commodities could be on the verge of a new super cycle
https://www.reuters.com/markets/commodities/commodities-could-be-verge-new-super-cycle-2025-09-18 

Wealth Tax Debate Heats Up in Europe

The problem with taxing the rich
https://www.ft.com/content/43ab44ef-359e-4af8-bded-093be6e56f4d
Fiscal systems designed around income and consumption struggle to capture wealth, and billionaires are highly mobile.
 
Europe has menu of options to make wealthy pay more taxes
https://www.reuters.com/business/finance/europe-has-menu-options-make-wealthy-pay-more-taxes-2025-09-19 

Related:

The Last Americans Really Paying Taxes
https://www.aol.com/articles/last-americans-really-paying-taxes-202300699.html
The tax code is becoming more chaotic and less fair.

Wobbly Dollar

The dollar is taking the hit from worries over the US
https://www.ft.com/content/ac9e7ee1-ebe5-431a-a315-b833de728ec9
Stock rally is masking deep anxiety from investors about the path forward for the world’s biggest economy. 

Renminbi Debt

Renminbi Debt in a Dollar-Denominated World
https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/renminbi-debt-role-to-play-in-development-finance-by-paola-subacchi-2025-09 

Renminbi-denominated loans are only a tiny fraction of dollar-denominated borrowing. But developing countries' persistent need for external finance could accelerate the Chinese currency's rise and ultimately reshape the international monetary system, even if the dollar is not dethroned.

A One-Sided Trade War?

Would an all-out trade war be better?
https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/09/18/would-an-all-out-trade-war-be-better
Donald Trump has so far avoided retaliation, which might carry a cost of its own. 

A Different Kind of AI Superpower

India could be a different kind of AI superpower
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/09/18/india-could-be-a-different-kind-of-ai-superpower
It won’t look like America or China. It could still be a winner.
 
AI is erupting in India
https://www.economist.com/asia/2025/09/17/ai-is-erupting-in-india
American firms are piling on users—and sucking up mountains of data. 

Google vs. Perplexity fight plays out in India as AI battle intensifies
https://restofworld.org/2025/google-perplexity-ai-search-india/
Google and Perplexity are offering free access to their AI-powered search in India, a key testing ground and source of training data for AI models.

Global AI giants target India’s youth in emerging market push
https://www.ft.com/content/7d6ed5de-d011-4c20-89f5-c800030b8bed
ChatGPT and Perplexity attracted by size of app user population despite low revenues.

Job Insecurity and the Gig Economy

China’s 200m gig workers are a warning for the world
https://www.economist.com/leaders/2025/09/18/chinas-200m-gig-workers-are-a-warning-for-the-world
What a giant precarious workforce reveals about the future of jobs. 

Political Upheaval in Asia

Why Asia’s Gen Z Is Angry with Its Leaders
https://www.wsj.com/world/asia/why-asias-gen-z-is-angry-with-its-leaders-13cea194
The perceived privileges enjoyed by political elites have sparked a wave of protests across Asia, where a large generation of young people is feeling deprived of economic opportunities. 

What is the True Purpose of a College Education?

How to Think, Not What to Think
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2025/09/teach-students-how-think-not-what-think/684271/
College is not just about transmitting knowledge—but learning and practicing the skills that connect us to one another.

College in the Post-Educational Age
https://www.wsj.com/opinion/college-in-the-post-educational-age-669f4fcc
Students lose something vital when they go to school in search of careers, not learning. 

I’m Watching the Sacrifice of College’s Soul
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/14/opinion/college-soul-ai-education.html

This Is Who’s Really Driving the Decline in Interest in Liberal Arts Education
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/07/17/opinion/liberal-arts-college-students-administration.html

What Does It Really Mean to Learn?

https://www.newyorker.com/culture/open-questions/what-does-it-really-mean-to-learn

Joshua Rothman

Valiant says that he tries not to use the word “intelligent” to describe people (in fact, he is “sometimes taken aback” when he hears others use it); instead, he is drawn to “valuable abilities that somehow involve learning and are not well captured by conventional notions of IQ.” An educable mind, he writes, can learn from books, lectures, conversations, experiences, and Zen koans—from anything, really—and notice when relevant aspects of almost forgotten knowledge reveal themselves. We admire aspects of someone’s educability when we say that they are a quick study, or identify them as “coachable,” but what really makes them educable is that they apply insights “for purposes not foreseen at the time of the study or the coaching”; educability is something like “street smarts”—a term which connotes the “uncanny ability to negotiate the practicalities of life”—and is closely related to having common sense. When people strike us as particularly “well-educated,” this might mean that they’ve had lots of school, Valiant writes, but it could also mean that they’re exceptionally educable, with the ability to “take good advantage of whatever educational opportunities arise, whether formal or informal.”

An Infantilizing Double Standard for American College Students

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/03/opinion/college-students-adulting.html

If universities today won’t hold students responsible for their bad behavior, they also won’t leave them alone when they do nothing wrong. Administrators send out position statements after major national and international political events to convey the approved response, micromanage campus parties and social events, dictate scripts for sexual interactions, extract allegiance to boutique theories of power and herd undergraduates into mandatory dormitories where their daily lives can be more comprehensively monitored and shaped. This is increasingly true across institutions — public and private, small and large — but the more elite the school, the more acute the problem.

Jonathan Malesic notes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/04/opinion/college-students-school-work.html
College is a unique time in your life to discover just how much your mind can do. Capacities like an ear for poetry, a grasp of geometry or a keen moral imagination may not “pay off” financially (though you never know), but they are part of who you are. That makes them worth cultivating. Doing so requires a community of teachers and fellow learners. Above all, it requires time: time to allow your mind to branch out, grow and blossom.

Molly Worthen, Historian at the University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill, notes:
https://www.nytimes.com/2023/05/25/opinion/college-students-monks-mental-health-smart-phones.html

Students are hungry for a low-tech, introspective experience — and not just students in the Ivy League. Research suggests that underprivileged young people have far fewer opportunities to think for unbroken stretches of time, so they may need even more space in college to develop what social scientists call cognitive endurance...
Most important, students need head space to think about their ultimate values. Contemplation and marathon reading are not ends in themselves or mere vacations from real life but are among the best ways to figure out your own answer to the question of what a human being is for — a question that is all the more pressing at a time when the robots soon may be coming for the white-collar jobs in medicine, law and finance that the secular intelligentsia treats as shorthand for personal fulfillment. To use the trendy pedagogical jargon, here are the student learning outcomes universities should focus on: cognitive endurance and existential clarity.  

Debating the Value of a College Education
https://vivekjayakumar.blogspot.com/2020/05/debating-value-of-college-education.html